Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 14 to 18 of 18

Thread: Splitting 10s

  1. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by mofungoo View Post
    When you are at N0 it means you have a 65% (approximately) chance of being in the + column. It will take, depending on the game, over a million hands to be reasonably certain of being at EV. This is not going to happen in a year if you are playing solo.
    Everything I said was relative and you try to quantify. For a crappy N0 you might need 1.000,000 hands but for for a Score of exactly 50 (N0 = 20,000) 1,000,000 hands is 50 times N0. EV is just over 7 standard deviation. Good degree of certainty is a relative term. The lesson is in the effect of SCORE on certainty of results for someone that is trying to play a game with a low SCORE.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    BTW my SCORE is 38.14
    The SCORE of 38.14 has a N0 of about 26,220. That makes 1,000,000 hands' EV a 6 standard deviation event instead of 7. In other words you would need to play an extra 20% longer for the same degree of certainty. When you are talking the long run an extra 20% is a very long time. That is the effect of SCORE on your results. Low enough SCORE and you may never play long enough in your life to get to a high degree of certainty.

  2. #15
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    T3: It makes the mountain seem impossible to climb. Seems like all the more reason to reduce volatility...in case one is on the wrong side of the curve.
    That's my attitude and how I try to make use of extra information.

  3. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Pit 3 BJ4
    Posts
    863


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Everything I said was relative and you try to quantify. For a crappy N0 you might need 1.000,000 hands but for for a Score of exactly 50 (N0 = 20,000) 1,000,000 hands is 50 times N0. EV is just over 7 standard deviation. Good degree of certainty is a relative term. The lesson is in the effect of SCORE on certainty of results for someone that is trying to play a game with a low SCORE.
    I ran a series of sims about a year ago on a 2D game with a SCORE of 80. It took nearly 2 million hands to get within 10% of EV for every run.

  4. #17


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Splitting 10s can be an attention getter for AP in a heads up game. I realize only counting the "seen" cards is a Cardinal rule in BJ. However, suppose your system suggests the count suggests a max bet and you're playing two hands. This situation is rare but could be costly...or a handsome profit. The rule is the first hand must complete play before looking at the second hand.

    The first hand is two 10s which put your true count square on line. My question is do you give any consideration to the unseen hand in this instance? It could be fair to assume one or both are ten/Ace. The purpose the large bet was expectation of garnering more large cards. If so, the TC would then slide below the suggested split index on the first hand.
    Recently I got an opportunity to split 10's against 5 at TC +10. Did not do it because I have just won six max bets in a roll including two double down. The pit boss has come to my table so I have to play like a ploppy.

    I would get 15 and 16 but the dealer will bust though.

  5. #18


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    It depends on what kind of game , solo counting, team , hc ,St , steering ,comp .There are really no straight answer IMO.I would never screw up a good game with these play.jUST SAY I learned my lesson.

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Similar Threads

  1. Splitting 10's
    By blackjacktim in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 03-31-2014, 06:02 AM
  2. Splitting %
    By Picasso in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 08-11-2012, 06:05 AM
  3. MR.Pro: Splitting
    By MR.Pro in forum International Scene
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-05-2003, 06:55 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.