In the red

[Exoter175]

Early into the 8th month of the year and my blackjack results have slipped into the red for the YEAR. I have played just over 47,000 rounds and am down a couple hundred dollars. I am not posting my results to vent or complain and I am not crying variance. I hesitated to share these results but decided to because there have been a number instances on a couple of the sites that I participate on, where new posters have posted their plans to begin play, whether attempting to play for a living or part-time and their plans have included playing underfunded, with a high RoR. It seems some of these folks have little understanding of ‘the long run’. My results for the year show just how long the long run can be. And just imagine what can happen in the short run.

Now, in fairness, my style of play, playing a large rotation of local games, some barely playable by my liberal standard, meaning a high N0, coupled with the fact that I play many different games, including bet spreads and max bets, based on what I determine each location's tolerance level to be, means that I am playing to a very high total N0. This choice has definitely come back to bite me in the ass, so far this year.

I am a ‘grinder’ type player, meaning I play a lot, more than I suspect most full-time players do, and I figure that I will eventually get to this higher N0, that I have set for myself in my longevity trade off. Results so far this year are severely testing that thought process along with my patience. I have already begun tweaking my game plan, moving more towards the better games and opportunities and lower N0, for the remainder of the years and at year’s end, when I re-evaluate, may do so on a permanent basis.

KJ, you're going to be just fine, I have faith. Early on I was up about 2 grand, then took a pretty big hit that wiped all profits out that put me in the negatives for quite a while, then I came out of it. Now this last month started off phenomenal putting me at around 10k+ for the month until the very end. Now I'm on the tail end of a bad swing, I hope, where I've lost 4 out of my last 5 sessions cutting about 3.5k off last months profits into this month. This week has been baaaaaaaad, but I keep coming to the forums hoping to read more about how you're doing to see if you're still hanging in there, and you are, so that helps me out in my bad swings. But think about this for a moment bud, if I can take just over 7k in a month with a much smaller spread than yours, red chipping, I'm sure you can do just as much and probably more in just a few sessions, and when you do, do it. And you will, I expect a post about it, because us new guys, minus ZK, are pulling for you!

You might need halves bro. And you dont need marginal games to preserve longevity, just play the best games hit and run and play different shifts. Write down each shift, and only play that shift once a month and play them short sessions each time

Come on now, you should know this

Give me a break ZK, you don't even play seriously, you know nothing about longevity, cover, scouting, and money management. Everything to you is just a theory and your only real "game" that you might play, infrequently" is probably on some soft 6 deck 5 dollar table where your spread is 1-6.

You're barking up the wrong tree with KJ and your inner troll is showing.

KJ, I appreciate your openness about your experiences. You not only speak about the positive fluctuations (that is what most people talk about), but also the negative and stagnate periods. I feel it is important for people, especially to newer players, to see all side of playing BJ. When I first started out I did well and it felt like I couldn't lose. There were some set backs here and there but they were quickly erased. I heard of people talk about losing streaks and long break even periods but they don't sink in until it happens to you.

The first half of my year was going really well. I did have a few (3) slides that were more than 10% of my BR but again they were made up in short order. Since the start of the second half of the year I have had three such slides (2 that was over 10% and 1 that was over 20% !!!!) in three trips. I am not where I want to be with ROR but I am at or below half Kelly depending on the game. I did end up quite negative for the month but it could have been much, much worse. It is very disheartening to see 2 months worth of work evaporate in a few short hours.

I used to graph my sessions but at times I do not want to see such volatility laid out in front of me so I stopped a while back . I don't expect you to show your log or anything but I would be curious to see what 47,000 hands of negative play looks like. Mine is usually full of big wins but also big losses. It seems like I either can't win in stretches or can't lose.

I would offer encouragement but I know you really don't need that. You are smart, experienced, and stubborn enough to know that this will turn and will be a blip on an otherwise very successful BJ career. Hang in there and I am thankful that you are one of the few that paint an accurate picture of playing BJ, good and bad.

DM

DM, I feel your pain. I set aside what I "thought" was enough of a BR, and found myself losing several times at 15-25% of my BR, in between my much more frequent winning sessions. Granted, at that time I set a small portion aside just for "practical training" and didn't have a proper bet spread or anything and just wanted to hone my skills. My real BR is doing just fine and its over funded, if anything. But man, those early days of losing 15-25% of my BR really taught me a lesson, and now when I take long dives like I've just now started, and KJ has been going into, it really makes you respect and love the proper planning and setting up of the BR.

Depends how committed you are. Once a month is just an estimate. I could easily average 40 hours a week doing that. Backcounting counts towards the N0 if you didn't N0. Well now you N0. And now you N0 that i could easily get 40 hours a week in. I already have a perfect plan of attack that I can do alone and preserve longevity. Once I get 100k saved up, ill get rolling.

.........so you really don't play seriously, and everything I've said about your game up until this point was pretty accurate. Good to know. Let us know how that 100k save up goes when you pass up on making a bajillion from selling out of a pump and dump stock that you should have been out of and back into at least twice by now. Shit, you'd have that 100k already if you'd have listened to some of us lol.

So are your threads. Feelings are mutual

Your posts do nothing except continuously expose you as a fraud, a troll, and a liar. I hope you know that your credibility, which I thought couldn't get any worse, has been knocked down a few rungs this last week.

[KronikBuddha]

KJ, I definitely appreciate seeing these posts. I think it helps keep everything in perspective. Especially ROR. I think a lot of people play with whatever ROR they choose and in the back of their minds really think their ROR is zero, that maybe 1 in 20 or 1 in 50 players playing like they do will go broke, but it won't be them. Unfortunately the math says otherwise. Last year was my first year of playing, and I had three negative months. And all of those downswings were followed by large upswings with a lot of positive variance. Then I started this year off on a tear, hitting new win records every month the first four months of the year culminating in a period where I doubled my bankroll in 11 days, a hugely positive variance occurrence, certainly 3 standard deviations on the good side. Since then I have been in the red the last three months. About 1 standard deviation on the negative side, but I have to just keep playing and know that it's going to turn around at some point.

[ZenKinG]

KJ, you're going to be just fine, I have faith. Early on I was up about 2 grand, then took a pretty big hit that wiped all profits out that put me in the negatives for quite a while, then I came out of it. Now this last month started off phenomenal putting me at around 10k+ for the month until the very end. Now I'm on the tail end of a bad swing, I hope, where I've lost 4 out of my last 5 sessions cutting about 3.5k off last months profits into this month. This week has been baaaaaaaad, but I keep coming to the forums hoping to read more about how you're doing to see if you're still hanging in there, and you are, so that helps me out in my bad swings. But think about this for a moment bud, if I can take just over 7k in a month with a much smaller spread than yours, red chipping, I'm sure you can do just as much and probably more in just a few sessions, and when you do, do it. And you will, I expect a post about it, because us new guys, minus ZK, are pulling for you!



Give me a break ZK, you don't even play seriously, you know nothing about longevity, cover, scouting, and money management. Everything to you is just a theory and your only real "game" that you might play, infrequently" is probably on some soft 6 deck 5 dollar table where your spread is 1-6.

You're barking up the wrong tree with KJ and your inner troll is showing.



DM, I feel your pain. I set aside what I "thought" was enough of a BR, and found myself losing several times at 15-25% of my BR, in between my much more frequent winning sessions. Granted, at that time I set a small portion aside just for "practical training" and didn't have a proper bet spread or anything and just wanted to hone my skills. My real BR is doing just fine and its over funded, if anything. But man, those early days of losing 15-25% of my BR really taught me a lesson, and now when I take long dives like I've just now started, and KJ has been going into, it really makes you respect and love the proper planning and setting up of the BR.



.........so you really don't play seriously, and everything I've said about your game up until this point was pretty accurate. Good to know. Let us know how that 100k save up goes when you pass up on making a bajillion from selling out of a pump and dump stock that you should have been out of and back into at least twice by now. Shit, you'd have that 100k already if you'd have listened to some of us lol.



Your posts do nothing except continuously expose you as a fraud, a troll, and a liar. I hope you know that your credibility, which I thought couldn't get any worse, has been knocked down a few rungs this last week.

Not worried about what people on a forum think of my credibility lool. I hope you all think im a fraud, last time I checked I know im not a fraud and know this game in and out and how to get away with it, all that's stopping me is a bankroll right now.

BUT yoooo exoter can I get an ELTP PPSspotcheck?? Hows that 16% gain today? Im waiting for the .15s?? lool thats why trading sucks, and you're gonna miss another good run when you thought it would drop. You and tthree keep claiming how it's so easy to be in and out, but never post about when it goes badly, trading is for suckers and the people with inside information will always be ahead of you on wall street. Investing long term is the only real chance a retail investor can make money in the stock market. Worry about 'what' will happen and not 'when' it will happen at the time you choose to invest in a company. Because if you worry about 'what' you dont have to worry about 'when'. I still stick to my 1.00+ end of the year, while you're out of the stock looking at it rise LOLOL

[ZenKinG]

Thank you DM21. It makes me feel good to read your first paragraph. This is exactly why I like to share my experiences. We learn by experience. Primarily our own, as they really hit home, but I believe there is a secondary opportunity to learn from the experiences of other players and members as well. I know I have benefitted greatly in that manner. So that is why I continue to share some of my experiences.

Now nobody, myself included, likes to post that they are down, getting their ass kicked, or going through unmotivated periods, or that the year has been an bust to date. No one wants to hear other members criticize and critique them and or their play, during the down periods. You should have done this. You should have done that. You're just an idiot or you should be using halves. But if I am going to share the good, the 'perfect shoe' that I had a few years ago where I won 1/3 my years total in 20 minutes, or the amazing run I had last spring where I won 6 figures and 95% of my years total in just 5 weeks, then I feel obligated to share the bad as well, the bad runs, the bad training of a partner that didn't work out, etc.

Are you still thinking im being serious when I mention halves? I have said many times, that any count gets the money, and the advantages that hi lo have over halves are very important such as counting multiple tables at once as well. Please man learn to take some humor, this forum has become a joke. Get your military cap on guys, this is no holds bar only serious talk on here.

[KJ]

Not worried about what people on a forum think of my credibility lool. I hope you all think im a fraud, last time I checked I know im not a fraud and know this game in and out and how to get away with it, all that's stopping me is a bankroll right now.

BUT yoooo exoter can I get an ELTP PPSspotcheck?? Hows that 16% gain today? Im waiting for the .15s?? lool thats why trading sucks, and you're gonna miss another good run when you thought it would drop. You and tthree keep claiming how it's so easy to be in and out, but never post about when it goes badly, trading is for suckers and the people with inside information will always be ahead of you on wall street. Investing long term is the only real chance a retail investor can make money in the stock market. Worry about 'what' will happen and not 'when' it will happen at the time you choose to invest in a company. Because if you worry about 'what' you dont have to worry about 'when'. I still stick to my 1.00+ end of the year, while you're out of the stock looking at it rise LOLOL

Don't hijack yet another thread with your stock bullshit, zenking. Show a little class for ONCE.

And btw, repeatedly saying the only thing stopping you from success in blackjack is lack of a bankroll, has to be about the stupidest of the many stupid things you say.
News flash: Bankroll is a necessity! That's like say the only thing stopping me from being a great basketball player is the fact that I am not a good basketball player.

[ZenKinG]

Don't hijack yet another thread with your stock bullshit, zenking. Show a little class for ONCE.

And btw, repeatedly saying the only thing stopping you from success in blackjack is lack of a bankroll, has to be about the stupidest of the many stupid things you say.
News flash: Bankroll is a necessity! That's like say the only thing stopping me from being a great basketball player is the fact that I am not a good basketball player.

I really don't know whats wrong with you people. Why am I the only one being accused here, Exoter is the damn cancer always bringing up my stock in every thread and all im doing is defending myself constantly with facts and i get all the blame LOL, but no one gives him a second look as the guy who provoked or attacked me for no reason. There's definitly something terribly wrong with you people, but its been an ongoing problem for some time on this forum. All hail KJ, Tthree, Ouchez, Tarzan, ZenMaster Flash, Norm, Solo Player, smallcapgrowth, etc, THEY ARE NEVER WRONG GUYS, and anyone who argues with them is considered a personal attack and all their little fanboys will then back them up. Last time i checked, Tthree has never been wrong on this forum, everytime someone says something to him he writes 10 paragraphs why he's correct, but everyone looks the other way and doesnt say a word to him, but when I argue back, it's like the sky is falling and everyone loses their minds. The same goes for all the other people I mentioned, and I know I'm leaving a lot of others.

Im sick of all this so called respect like there's some entitlement here, its like people cant argue with anyone or share strong opinions or people flip and get all sensitive like a 10 yr old girl. This is an open forum and I will continue to question anything and everything, not just here but in life as well.

[KJ]

T3 never wrong? Of course he is sometimes wrong. You need only go to one of the many count debates to see it. I am kidding, T3. But the point is many of us have differing opinions on different subject. I debate Zen_flash on the importance of count strength as well, when he is healthy and active. SCG and I have discussions related to our very different styles of play, his slash and burn and mine, based on playing within casino comfort levels. We all sometime have different views on different topics.

But the difference is that ‘respect’ that you so easily dismiss. I respect each and every one of the people that you mentioned and have learned much from all of them. So while I don’t agree with everything everyone says, discussions and debates are respectful. And all these people and I want to add another name that you omitted, 21forme, have earned that respect because they are successful players who take the time to participate and share their experiences for the benefit of myself and others. And often times it is not really to our advantage to do so.

Now a funny thing about your list. You have gone after some good names….and that speaks volumes.

Not sure how you can criticize Norm. He has been way too tolerant of you IMO (and I suspect I am not alone). Zen_flash has been dealing with health issues and doesn’t participate much. Why would you attack him? Ouchez….always respectful. He may tell you ‘how it is’, but he is respectful. And for the most part he stays out of these ‘frays’ nowadays. In the ‘good old days', in another time and place, he would have kicked your ass….verbally.
Solo Player and 21forme are two guys that never get involved in any kind of personally discussions, and NEVER voice how they feel. But both have regarding you. That should tell you something, Mr Zenking…..you are just out of line.

edit: Someone sent me an email with names of several member's that should be on this list. Just to be clear this isn't my list and doesn't represent any 'elite' membership or anything. This is zenking's list for whatever reason (apparently member's he has a problem with). I just added 21forme, because he weighed in during the thread when it is uncharacteristic for him to do so.

[metronome]

KJ, a very fine thread (once again) and the post from DM21 about the stagnant periods is certainly spot on. Your posts, as well as DonS, Flash 1296, CP, Tarzan, Tthree, Bigplayer, Norm and so many others are a rich trove of BJ wisdom, math, expertise etal.
Just keep farming those green fields of felt for that cumulative EV you speak of and all will be well.
Good health, good fortune.
Thanks for sharing...

[metronome]

ZenKing, you MUST be young, you haven't yet learned how to use language or grammar, how to wield the written word into a true weapon or a dove of peace or induce an epiphany into the reader.
Quit trying to show all how smart you are, try some humility and contrition, some self-deprecating humor, something other than kindergarten antics...geez man.
Question yes, always, especially authority, but give it some thought and leave your ego at the door...we really don't give a rat's ass.

[ZenKinG]

ZenKing, you MUST be young, you haven't yet learned how to use language or grammar, how to wield the written word into a true weapon or a dove of peace or induce an epiphany into the reader.
Quit trying to show all how smart you are, try some humility and contrition, some self-deprecating humor, something other than kindergarten antics...geez man.
Question yes, always, especially authority, but give it some thought and leave your ego at the door...we really don't give a rat's ass.

When there are constant lies and misinformation being spread about me, its hard to hold back to subtle words, but because its the internet and I want people to know that it angers me. Without a curse word here and there on the internet, people wont understand how mad i am. In person I wouldnt be that emphatic.

[metronome]

BTW, ZenMasterFlash is on your "friends" list. Perhaps he should unfriend himself

[ZenKinG]

T3 never wrong? Of course he is sometimes wrong. You need only go to one of the many count debates to see it. I am kidding, T3. But the point is many of us have differing opinions on different subject. I debate Zen_flash on the importance of count strength as well, when he is healthy and active. SCG and I have discussions related to our very different styles of play, his slash and burn and mine, based on playing within casino comfort levels. We all sometime have different views on different topics.

But the difference is that ‘respect’ that you so easily dismiss. I respect each and every one of the people that you mentioned and have learned much from all of them. So while I don’t agree with everything everyone says, discussions and debates are respectful. And all these people and I want to add another name that you omitted, 21forme, have earned that respect because they are successful players who take the time to participate and share their experiences for the benefit of myself and others. And often times it is not really to our advantage to do so.

Now a funny thing about your list. You have gone after some good names….and that speaks volumes.

Not sure how you can criticize Norm. He has been way too tolerant of you IMO (and I suspect I am not alone). Zen_flash has been dealing with health issues and doesn’t participate much. Why would you attack him? Ouchez….always respectful. He may tell you ‘how it is’, but he is respectful. And for the most part he stays out of these ‘frays’ nowadays. In the ‘good old days', in another time and place, he would have kicked your ass….verbally.
Solo Player and 21forme are two guys that never get involved in any kind of personally discussions, and NEVER voice how they feel. But both have regarding you. That should tell you something, Mr Zenking…..you are just out of line.

Out of line due to false provocations and msiinformation being spread about me from Exoter, this all could've been avoided. Maybe if maybe just ONCE you could criticize exoter and other who have provoked me for no reason just to argue and when i argue i tend to get mad and use vulgar words at times to show anger through the internet. But this is all done after people attack me for no reason. And on top of that, i spit out facts that just go by the wayside and they ignore it and then spread more false info. It's more of an annoyance than anything. I believe I have done nothing wrong and maybe you guys should check yourselves as well, because for me to have all the blame recently is laughable at best.

[metronome]

ZK, have you ever perused BlackJackInfo.com?
You're not stupid, that much is clear. But you are young AND argumentative AND it is the internet, which means that real interaction is stymied, even dysfunctional as we can't relate in human terms. So, IMHO, just tone it down a smidge. Work on your posts AND don't take any of it personal...as nobody gives a rat's ass... not mine yours or anyone..............

FYI..I cuss like a sailor...no prob there