In the red

[moses]

Thank you for the kind words moses. I am really not being hard on myself and I hope it doesn't come off that way. I don't want this to be one of those player complaining, blaming variance posts, that James G. hates so much.

I didn't read your thread as complaining or blaming variance. My concern is you predicted this negative outcome. When you were up just $6 or $7K, your viewpoint was you'd be back to even in a short time.

I didn't realize my decision to play less than favorable games was cutting into my profits and wearing me out emotionally. Since then, I'm just playing my game and the excellent games. My playing time as dropped considerably but the margin of profit is actually up.

You're a seasoned pro. I'm confident you'll land on your feet and be back to running a winning race soon. But a suggestion might be to only play the best games for awhile...until you hit your stride again.

[21forme]

You are beginning to just be annoying

Beginning?

[Ouchez]

With years like 2012 and 2013 it seems like your way ahead of the curve, even with being down for the year by giving back your 15K in winnings. I don't know how long you've been playing but if I were to run into a Hi-lo player on the street I would ask them just how good are their deck estimation skills when calculating true count and how fast can they compute the value when at the table knowing that they must glance at the discard tray. In that respect I think REKO and other similar counts provide great cover in that players don't have to look at the discard tray.

Blitz,

There are ways to handle the discard tray that are not at all obvious.

I can also pretty much guarantee that at this point KJ is a finely honed BJ machine when it comes to using the KING OF COUNTS, Hi-Lo. (And hopefully HI-LO-LO at DD).

O

O

[KJ]

I can also pretty much guarantee that at this point KJ is a finely honed BJ machine when it comes to using the KING OF COUNTS, Hi-Lo. (And hopefully HI-LO-LO at DD).

O

Mr O, I started side counting Aces a couple years ago when I started including more double deck play into my mix. I won't infringe upon your clever name by referring to my ace side count as HI-LO-LO. I also didn't consciously begin to do so. Playing double deck, it is just sort of hard not to notice when the Aces come out, as there are only 8.

It was about the same time that I first heard you mention HI-LO-LO, although you probably had been using it for some time. So, while I can't say that your mention of HI-LO-LO inspired me to begin incorporating ace side count into my DD play, that fact that you were doing so, certainly confirmed it to be a good idea and if I wasn't already doing some form of ace side count, I would have definitely looked into it at that time.

[DM21]

KJ, I appreciate your openness about your experiences. You not only speak about the positive fluctuations (that is what most people talk about), but also the negative and stagnate periods. I feel it is important for people, especially to newer players, to see all side of playing BJ. When I first started out I did well and it felt like I couldn't lose. There were some set backs here and there but they were quickly erased. I heard of people talk about losing streaks and long break even periods but they don't sink in until it happens to you.

The first half of my year was going really well. I did have a few (3) slides that were more than 10% of my BR but again they were made up in short order. Since the start of the second half of the year I have had three such slides (2 that was over 10% and 1 that was over 20% !!!!) in three trips. I am not where I want to be with ROR but I am at or below half Kelly depending on the game. I did end up quite negative for the month but it could have been much, much worse. It is very disheartening to see 2 months worth of work evaporate in a few short hours.

I used to graph my sessions but at times I do not want to see such volatility laid out in front of me so I stopped a while back . I don't expect you to show your log or anything but I would be curious to see what 47,000 hands of negative play looks like. Mine is usually full of big wins but also big losses. It seems like I either can't win in stretches or can't lose.

I would offer encouragement but I know you really don't need that. You are smart, experienced, and stubborn enough to know that this will turn and will be a blip on an otherwise very successful BJ career. Hang in there and I am thankful that you are one of the few that paint an accurate picture of playing BJ, good and bad.

DM

[Goodboy]

KJ

As usual, thanks for sharing your thoughts and swings as a more than seasoned full time player.

Speaking from a just newborn full time player, I can always appreciate your gift in the form of a simple post, as a constant reminder of the probable times ahead of me, since I am still running a 17 month positive streak, with earnings equal to 2.7 times my EV for the period.

And I am confident you'll turn things around. Thanks for sharing, and go get them!

[ACFERRET]

You mention you played multiple bets and ramps etc, Could simply be the fact that playing 20k hands at $500, and then paying another 27k hands at $150 is not the same as playing 47k hands at any number. in terms of your NO

[KJ]

KJ, I appreciate your openness about your experiences. You not only speak about the positive fluctuations (that is what most people talk about), but also the negative and stagnate periods. I feel it is important for people, especially to newer players, to see all side of playing BJ. When I first started out I did well and it felt like I couldn't lose. There were some set backs here and there but they were quickly erased. I heard of people talk about losing streaks and long break even periods but they don't sink in until it happens to you.

Thank you DM21. It makes me feel good to read your first paragraph. This is exactly why I like to share my experiences. We learn by experience. Primarily our own, as they really hit home, but I believe there is a secondary opportunity to learn from the experiences of other players and members as well. I know I have benefitted greatly in that manner. So that is why I continue to share some of my experiences.

Now nobody, myself included, likes to post that they are down, getting their ass kicked, or going through unmotivated periods, or that the year has been an bust to date. No one wants to hear other members criticize and critique them and or their play, during the down periods. You should have done this. You should have done that. You're just an idiot or you should be using halves. But if I am going to share the good, the 'perfect shoe' that I had a few years ago where I won 1/3 my years total in 20 minutes, or the amazing run I had last spring where I won 6 figures and 95% of my years total in just 5 weeks, then I feel obligated to share the bad as well, the bad runs, the bad training of a partner that didn't work out, etc.

[KJ]

You mention you played multiple bets and ramps etc, Could simply be the fact that playing 20k hands at $500, and then paying another 27k hands at $150 is not the same as playing 47k hands at any number. in terms of your NO

Absolutely ACFERRET. My philosophy of just accumulating EV, throwing all the different EV from different games played at differ spreads, into one big EV pot, means I am playing with a very high total N0 and almost invites this type of bigger, yet still temporary swing.

[ZenKinG]

How do you think you can play only the best games and once a month on each shift And play full time. You are talking getting 25 hours, maybe, per month.

Depends how committed you are. Once a month is just an estimate. I could easily average 40 hours a week doing that. Backcounting counts towards the N0 if you didn't N0. Well now you N0. And now you N0 that i could easily get 40 hours a week in. I already have a perfect plan of attack that I can do alone and preserve longevity. Once I get 100k saved up, ill get rolling.

[ZenKinG]

You are beginning to just be annoying.

So are your threads. Feelings are mutual

[forecast rain]

Fair question, Blitzkrieg. My philosophy is quite difference than most players. I just try to build EV, not worrying as much about N0. If I go to one location to play a reasonably good game and there is a not so good game (lower score and higher N0) right across the street, I will stop in and play that too. If my partner and I go to a casino, as part of our non-BJ, AP activities, to play video poker and play through our free play and/or eat, I will still play some blackjack at a medicore game while I am there. So, I play good with the not so good. I am always building EV. As long as the game is plus EV, I am adding it all to the pot. The result is the combined N0, for all games that I play will be high, but I generally will get there.

But this year that philosophy is being tested. You know, this game is an ongoing learning process, and I am learning a little something from this experience as well. As I said, I have already begun tweaking things, and suspect, I will adjust my mix of games just a little more toward the better (lower N0) games on a permanent basis. My primary focus is still on longevity, but I can tweak things, as I continue to learn.

I'm with you on this one KJ. There are a lot of good games and a lot of bad games. We can't just hammer the good games because longevity will be limited. I take the same approach in that its an average game set I seek by way of mixing the good with the bad.

[Baberuth]

KJ,
Sometimes I believe you think out loud when typing, which is good for us.
I hope others reading this realize your posts sometimes share what they don’t want to know or would never know because most won’t share losses, especially sustained losses. You have documented wins and losses before and I am surprised and learning, losses like that can happen, even for the elite players. Since I am all excited to go to Vegas soon, this post will echo “It can happen to you” in my ear. Although I am quite confident from past trips, I will be prepared even more now.

Thanks for sharing.
Baberuth