In the red

[KJ]

Early into the 8th month of the year and my blackjack results have slipped into the red for the YEAR. I have played just over 47,000 rounds and am down a couple hundred dollars. I am not posting my results to vent or complain and I am not crying variance. I hesitated to share these results but decided to because there have been a number instances on a couple of the sites that I participate on, where new posters have posted their plans to begin play, whether attempting to play for a living or part-time and their plans have included playing underfunded, with a high RoR. It seems some of these folks have little understanding of ‘the long run’. My results for the year show just how long the long run can be. And just imagine what can happen in the short run.

Now, in fairness, my style of play, playing a large rotation of local games, some barely playable by my liberal standard, meaning a high N0, coupled with the fact that I play many different games, including bet spreads and max bets, based on what I determine each location's tolerance level to be, means that I am playing to a very high total N0. This choice has definitely come back to bite me in the ass, so far this year.

I am a ‘grinder’ type player, meaning I play a lot, more than I suspect most full-time players do, and I figure that I will eventually get to this higher N0, that I have set for myself in my longevity trade off. Results so far this year are severely testing that thought process along with my patience. I have already begun tweaking my game plan, moving more towards the better games and opportunities and lower N0, for the remainder of the years and at year’s end, when I re-evaluate, may do so on a permanent basis.

[Nikky_Flash]

That's intense , hope it picks up for ya, thanks for sharing...

[ZenKinG]

You might need halves bro. And you dont need marginal games to preserve longevity, just play the best games hit and run and play different shifts. Write down each shift, and only play that shift once a month and play them short sessions each time

Come on now, you should know this

[Blitzkrieg]

You might be "In The Red" for this year but when you factor in last years six-figure win your not down. I wish I could say that I had a six-figure win but I am not playing at that level. If I was I might not ever have to look in the rear view mirror again. My only question is, why weren't you playing the best games or the better games from the get go?

[KJ]

I am appreciative of member's thoughts, including criticisms., but ZenKing, your comments are bordering on we-tar-dead.

My BJ results for the previous 2 year have averaged 6 figures, although admittedly 2013 was nearly 50% above expectation. Hi-lo was working just fine those years.

As for 'preserving longevity, I think I have a pretty good grasp on that and my minimal backoffs, despite playing the same rotation of stores speaks for itself.

You are beginning to just be annoying.

[KJ]

You might be "In The Red" for this year but when you factor in last years six-figure win your not down. My only question is, why weren't you playing the best games or the better games from the get go?

Fair question, Blitzkrieg. My philosophy is quite difference than most players. I just try to build EV, not worrying as much about N0. If I go to one location to play a reasonably good game and there is a not so good game (lower score and higher N0) right across the street, I will stop in and play that too. If my partner and I go to a casino, as part of our non-BJ, AP activities, to play video poker and play through our free play and/or eat, I will still play some blackjack at a medicore game while I am there. So, I play good with the not so good. I am always building EV. As long as the game is plus EV, I am adding it all to the pot. The result is the combined N0, for all games that I play will be high, but I generally will get there.

But this year that philosophy is being tested. You know, this game is an ongoing learning process, and I am learning a little something from this experience as well. As I said, I have already begun tweaking things, and suspect, I will adjust my mix of games just a little more toward the better (lower N0) games on a permanent basis. My primary focus is still on longevity, but I can tweak things, as I continue to learn.

[Blitzkrieg]

With years like 2012 and 2013 it seems like your way ahead of the curve, even with being down for the year by giving back your 15K in winnings. I don't know how long you've been playing but if I were to run into a Hi-lo player on the street I would ask them just how good are their deck estimation skills when calculating true count and how fast can they compute the value when at the table knowing that they must glance at the discard tray. In that respect I think REKO and other similar counts provide great cover in that players don't have to look at the discard tray.

[Blitzkrieg]

Fair question, Blitzkrieg. My philosophy is quite difference than most players. I just try to build EV, not worrying as much about N0. If I go to one location to play a reasonably good game and there is a not so good game (lower score and higher N0) right across the street, I will stop in and play that too. If my partner and I go to a casino, as part of our non-BJ, AP activities, to play video poker and play through our free play and/or eat, I will still play some blackjack at a medicore game while I am there. So, I play good with the not so good. I am always building EV. As long as the game is plus EV, I am adding it all to the pot. The result is the combined N0, for all games that I play will be high, but I generally will get there.

But this year that philosophy is being tested. You know, this game is an ongoing learning process, and I am learning a little something from this experience as well. As I said, I have already begun tweaking things, and suspect, I will adjust my mix of games just a little more toward the better (lower N0) games on a permanent basis. My primary focus is still on longevity, but I can tweak things, as I continue to learn.

The game is definitely an ongoing learning process. I don't understand what you mean about N0, I realize it's a blackjack term that means something of which I have not looked into that much. I just sit down and play and so far since counting my wins are greater than the losses and I'm happy but I am not a full-time player unlike yourself. Well by tweaking things a bit you might just turn things around for the remainder of the year, there is still plenty of time to be "Back in Black." I'm also in the process of tweaking my game.

[KJ]

I don't know how long you've been playing but if I were to run into a Hi-lo player on the street I would ask them just how good are their deck estimation skills when calculating true count and how fast can they compute the value when at the table knowing that they must glance at the discard tray. In that respect I think REKO and other similar counts provide great cover in that players don't have to look at the discard tray.

This is my 11th year of fulltime play, supporting myself solely from blackjack play. But, I always feel like I should add a disclaimer as my first 3 years, playing red chip levels, I made a total of 31 grand. Very few people could live off of that. Only a single, early twenty-something with shared living expenses could exist on such a shoe-string budget. It wasn't until my 4th and 5th year that I was able to grow my bankroll and play a little higher stakes and start to make a more realistic living. So, I've been playing for a living 8-11 years depending on how you want to count those first few years.

Deck estimation isn't an issue. I am very accurate. Deck estimation shouldn't be an issue for anyone that has played for a while. A glance at the discard rack every couple rounds isn't that suspicious. And that's all it takes is a glance. You shouldn't need to stare.

[mcallister3200]

You might need halves bro. And you dont need marginal games You're ptalkingrgetting abohoursngmaybety, jumonthplay the best games hit and run and play different shifts. Write down each shift, and only play that shift once a month and play them short sessions each time

Come on now, you should know this

How do you think you can play only the best games and once a month on each shift And play full time. You are talking getting 25 hours, maybe, per month.

[Blitzkrieg]

This is my 11th year of fulltime play, supporting myself solely from blackjack play. But, I always feel like I should add a disclaimer as my first 3 years, playing red chip levels, I made a total of 31 grand. Very few people could live off of that. Only a single, early twenty-something with shared living expenses could exist on such a shoe-string budget. It wasn't until my 4th and 5th year that I was able to grow my bankroll and play a little higher stakes and start to make a more realistic living. So, I've been playing for a living 8-11 years depending on how you want to count those first few years.

That's a lot of BJ at the red chip level. You must have been playing constantly to build up a 31K bank which is amazing in itself. How big was your starting bankroll at the red chip level many years ago?

[moses]

KJ: Pardon me for saying, but you're being a little hard on yourself. Let's review your numbers. Over the last 31 months you've averaged nearly $6,500 per month. You had a 50% increase in profit after I assume a better-than-average year. Your style of play comes with extreme endurance and the patience of Jobe. That being said, you're probably just in a correction. However, I realize it's hard not to take it personal. Keep dancing with what brung ya.

Obviously, you're doing something right to amass those profits. Perhaps review your mindset of 2012.

You are in control...select your game. Good luck in making August a $7k month...a good start to your comeback.

[KJ]

KJ: Pardon me for saying, but you're being a little hard on yourself. Let's review your numbers. Over the last 31 months you've averaged nearly $6,500 per month. You had a 50% increase in profit after I assume a better-than-average year. Your style of play comes with extreme endurance and the patience of Jobe. That being said, you're probably just in a correction. However, I realize it's hard not to take it personal. Keep dancing with what brung ya.

Obviously, you're doing something right to amass those profits. Perhaps review your mindset of 2012.

You are in control...select your game. Good luck in making August a $7k month...a good start to your comeback.

Thank you for the kind words moses. I am really not being hard on myself and I hope it doesn't come off that way. I don't want this to be one of those player complaining, blaming variance posts, that James G. hates so much.