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Thread: Why?

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Go easy on ZK. His stock fell 2.33% today to complete a month of steady decline. It hit a months high of .46 a month ago and closed at .336 today. He lost 27% of his net portfolio in the last month so give him some slack.
    Oh trust me, I noticed when I sold at .37 after buying at .38 a day after the call, read into some deeeeeep articles about ELTP's financials and got out quickly. Cost me a little bit because I held it for about a week before I got to the bottom of their outlook to figure out that the stacks was going to fall pretty steadily, likely back into the mid 20's before rebounding at the end of August. If what I worked out comes to fruition, I should be able to pump and dump for about a 75% gain over the course of a few weeks in late August/September.

    Speaking of stocks, I took a huge, huge, HUGE gamble this month after I got out of ZK's pump and dumper, after ZipRealty agreed to a deal with Realogy Holdings, I did some digging. I sat there and was like, "hmm" and read a bit about the acquisition and why it was smart for Realogy to buy out Zip. As it turns out a few articles and studies had come out within the last few years referencing companies like Zip, and how home buyers are turning to Comparison type sites and Mobile platforms for home buying at a much higher rate than most brick and mortar adaptations in comparable markets. Lightbulb went on in my head. I thought back to when my Best Friend recently moved to California and tried to remember some of the sites we used to check housing out and whatnot. Instantly remembered that Zillow was the one he used. I cross referenced some articles and found a second name, Trulia. In that Trulia article, there was a mention about the Zip purchase by Realogy, and the mentioning of Trulia was more of a guess about an acquisition, where the guy ended up being wrong, then extrapolated. His error, however, hit another lighbulb. So I decided to invest a very small portion of my cash pools from my recent portfolio sale of ELTP, into both Zillow and Trulia, hoping that this Realogy move would either echo the Mobile/Social Media/Search Engine Market and set off a chain of larger Realtor companies going after Online/Mobile shares, or that it would just kick up and multiple Acquisition storm on Realogy's part.

    As fate would have it, not only did none of that happen, but the two companies I bought into (being the one I used personally, and then one I took a hunch on from the article) went public yesterday or today about a quasi-acquisition/merger thing where Trulia keeps website and all essential functions and goes under the umbrella of Zillow.

    Go take a look at the stack prices from July 18th until July 28th.

  2. #28
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    When are you going to take some profits or lower your money at risk?

  3. #29
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    Risk doesn't change, well, it shouldn't, at least when betting optimally. Some say, playing two hands is to reduce variance, which isn't really true. It increases variance, but ev also increases proportionally. The catch is, you are able to bet more money with the same amount of risk playing two hands. What it does reduce is time till n0. Which is what some people seem to think variance is.

    "Spreading to two hands greatly reduces the number of rounds overall. I learned early on from Ken Uston, the best strategy is to spread vertically... So when I raise my bet, I stick to one spot, increasing the stack higher rather than going sideways. Ironically, I go horizontal when the count falls to negative numbers. This tactic can increase a 1-3 spread to the equivalent of 1-4 and more, depending on the number of players."
    Kevin Blackwood, "Play Blackjack Like the Pros."
    He isn't talking about the number of hands played with an advantage, he's talking about the number of rounds.
    If his argument is the right, it can't be both ways, can it? Especially in light of the fact that it is not possible to bet optimally.
    Vincit Qui Patitur

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    The catch is, you are able to bet more money with the same amount of risk playing two hands.
    Betting more money with the same amount of risk. Isn't that in effect lowering risk? According to Wong "If you are not emotionally prepared to accept the risk associated with optimal bets, then bet less. You might prefer to split your bet in half and play two hands rather than putting it all on one hand. This will reduce your risk without changing your expected wind."

    Night_Rider
    You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those who they think can do nothing for them.

    M.S. Forbes

  5. #31
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    The difference is that Blackwood was a professional player for over 20 years. On the other hand, Wong never acheived professional status. I'll bet money on the horse that shows some class.
    Vincit Qui Patitur

  6. #32
    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    If two big players played two hands each it would actually be beneficial because one player would be playing 4 hands and would cause not only heat, but if playing heads up, would not be optimal.
    No it would not. They would be eating each others positive rounds. If they were playing on the same bankroll they would optimally be unable to be enough to offset the cards they are eating up. If on the same bank they should be at separate tables. If you get your BJ facts from the move 21 you're in a lot of trouble. One player should never be playing more than 2 hands. If you play 3 hands when heads up vs 1 hand, you are betting 80% more money per round but using 100% more cards per round.

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    If you get your BJ facts from the move 21 you're in a lot of trouble.
    You mean movie 21 or move 21?

  8. #34


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    That is silly...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    The difference is that Blackwood was a professional player for over 20 years. On the other hand, Wong never achieved professional status. I'll bet money on the horse that shows some class.
    That is like saying Magic Johnson would be a better coach than Pat Riley or Popovich (and magic was a huge failure) because he played basketball or that because Michael Jordan was a great player, he would be the best coach. I would bet you that Stanford Wong created more succesful AP's than did Blackwood.

  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Go easy on ZK. His stock fell 2.33% today to complete a month of steady decline. It hit a months high of .46 a month ago and closed at .336 today. He lost 27% of his net portfolio in the last month so give him some slack.
    Oh NO, not a month of red LOL, let me know in 1-2 years when Elite launches 3-4 ART products, the reason I'm in this stock. I'm not in it for the daily short term fluctutions of red, im in it for the ART and thats later this year with a possible launch as early as early summer 2015.

    We've went over this a million times by the way. You love trading and it seems you're so knowledgable about it. So please forget about blackjack and just start trading, it's so easy to make money. Let me know how bad Uncle Sam gets ya and let me know how many times you fail to time the market LOL.

    See ya in 1-2 years, but im glad you can keep me up to date on worthless red days and months, ask me in two minutes if im worried LOL. I hope it stays red for the next 2-3 months so I can accumulate more.

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    No it would not. They would be eating each others positive rounds. If they were playing on the same bankroll they would optimally be unable to be enough to offset the cards they are eating up. If on the same bank they should be at separate tables. If you get your BJ facts from the move 21 you're in a lot of trouble. One player should never be playing more than 2 hands. If you play 3 hands when heads up vs 1 hand, you are betting 80% more money per round but using 100% more cards per round.
    Did you even read my post? Please dont be another one on this forum who has reading comprehension issues. I get my information from 21? When did I say that? I was simply analyzing it thouroughly and then offering a suggestion as to why it could work after hearing about the critics review about it from blackjack apprenticeship. I NEVER said it was right by any stretch what they did in the movie 21 using two big players at the end. 21 was all Hollywood and many errors were in that film, it was for audience and views.

    I also love how you said i get my blackjack fact*(s)* plural from the movie 21. What other facts are you talking about? If you claim I got one fact from 21 about the big player thing, do you then just assume and say I get many other facts from them? When I have stated this?
    Last edited by ZenKinG; 07-29-2014 at 05:29 PM.

  11. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
    Oh trust me, I noticed when I sold at .37 after buying at .38 a day after the call, read into some deeeeeep articles about ELTP's financials and got out quickly. Cost me a little bit because I held it for about a week before I got to the bottom of their outlook to figure out that the stacks was going to fall pretty steadily, likely back into the mid 20's before rebounding at the end of August. If what I worked out comes to fruition, I should be able to pump and dump for about a 75% gain over the course of a few weeks in late August/September.

    Speaking of stocks, I took a huge, huge, HUGE gamble this month after I got out of ZK's pump and dumper, after ZipRealty agreed to a deal with Realogy Holdings, I did some digging. I sat there and was like, "hmm" and read a bit about the acquisition and why it was smart for Realogy to buy out Zip. As it turns out a few articles and studies had come out within the last few years referencing companies like Zip, and how home buyers are turning to Comparison type sites and Mobile platforms for home buying at a much higher rate than most brick and mortar adaptations in comparable markets. Lightbulb went on in my head. I thought back to when my Best Friend recently moved to California and tried to remember some of the sites we used to check housing out and whatnot. Instantly remembered that Zillow was the one he used. I cross referenced some articles and found a second name, Trulia. In that Trulia article, there was a mention about the Zip purchase by Realogy, and the mentioning of Trulia was more of a guess about an acquisition, where the guy ended up being wrong, then extrapolated. His error, however, hit another lighbulb. So I decided to invest a very small portion of my cash pools from my recent portfolio sale of ELTP, into both Zillow and Trulia, hoping that this Realogy move would either echo the Mobile/Social Media/Search Engine Market and set off a chain of larger Realtor companies going after Online/Mobile shares, or that it would just kick up and multiple Acquisition storm on Realogy's part.

    As fate would have it, not only did none of that happen, but the two companies I bought into (being the one I used personally, and then one I took a hunch on from the article) went public yesterday or today about a quasi-acquisition/merger thing where Trulia keeps website and all essential functions and goes under the umbrella of Zillow.

    Go take a look at the stack prices from July 18th until July 28th.
    Why you so smart bro? Is it hereditary?

    Im glad you sold, cheaper shares for me, as Ill keep accumulating. Im glad I did my own DD.

    'When people are fearful, im greedy' -Warren Buffet
    Last edited by ZenKinG; 07-29-2014 at 05:33 PM.

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    Yes I understand all that lol and thanks for the response, im just wondering where people got the notion that 2 big players eat up more cards?? They could also play two hands each, which would be better off and less heat than one player playing 4 hands.
    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Your post is confusing ZenKinG. Who is this 'they' that you are referring to when you say, "they always say 2 big players is bad because it wastes cards"? I have never heard anyone say this.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    Yes that's my point. And the 'they' is referring to i believe blackjackapprenticeship review of the movie '21' and the crtiques behind the movie and where they messed up. They said the two big players at the end of the movie is actually not a good thing to do and they said it was because it wastes cards,
    So you get a blackjack apprentice review of the movie 21 and they tell you why the movie is inaccurate in the last seen. You don't buy their perfect assessment and go on 4 pages of this thread refusing to believe the movie 21 is inaccurate about this.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    I get my information from 21? When did I say that?
    Instead you say that 2 players playing 4 hands is optimal which everyone has told you eats your own cards. 2 hands is optimal unless heads up where 1 hand is equal to 2 hands for all practical purposes. Every source says this same info except the movie 21. So you have vigorously defended an extremely wrong position based solely on the movie 21 no matter how many sources and experts explain it to you. Find any other source that will back you up and you can be sure you found a poor source of info. The only conclusion anyone can draw is you feel that the movie 21 trumps all other sources of information. It is simply the logical conclusion to following this thread.

  13. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenKinG View Post
    Why you so smart bro? Is it hereditary?

    Im glad you sold, cheaper shares for me, as Ill keep accumulating. Im glad I did my own DD.

    'When people are fearful, im greedy' -Warren Buffet
    You should realize how many others did their due diligence only to lose their shirts in the market. Nobody here is fearful. They are just not foolish. There is a difference. If you understood the quote from Buffet you would know he is talking about a panic driven sell off from a reasonable price for a stock. It is like a fire sale where you can pick up great stocks cheap after their prices plummet.

    Your stock has had some artificial spikes due to news driven buying sprees. Then the corrections come when the people do their due diligence and sell the stock. You have a lot to learn my friend. You might want to realize that and start the process. Learning everything the hard way really sucks.

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