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Thread: Am I playing the right game or it is just variances?

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Thank You for the suggestion. I will stick to it and make the plan next month to attack Palace Station again. I will put in the hours and play enough hands to get to the expected value as indicated using CVCX.
    You might consider spreading out your play. This casino might not tolerate your attempt to get into the long run . The chain has 9 other locations with similar conditions.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    I have seen the word "angry" used in a couple different threads now, in reference to a player feeling angry when losing. I don't get this. Perhaps people are just not expressing the correct emotion? My blackjack results for the year now stand just above $2200. That is for 7 months, 45,600 rounds of play. This compared to my last two years where my BJ results have been $120k+ and $80k+. The handling of long losing an unproductive periods are definitely one of my biggest weaknesses. I am frustrated as hell, but I am not "angry". Who would I be angry at?

    Hopefully, this is just a mischaracterization of the emotion that you are feeling. If anyone is really 'angry' at themselves, dealers, other players, blackjack god, whoever, because you are underachieving at the moment, you really need to reconsider playing this game and schedule an appointment with Dr. Buddy Rydell (anger management).

    His mention of the word anger, as mine before, are 110% accurate uses of the word here. Falling below expectation isn't to be "expected". While we do have the swallow the pill of deviation from time to time, we expect to run a certain direction. So when we don't, the initial reaction will always chemically be anger. Whether yours lasts for a moment or for an hour, your brain is only wired one way, and psychologically the first emotional reaction is Anger in this scenario. Followed by guilt or despair, usually depending on the length of the anger.

    At the end of the day, we all know (Or we should) that we will eventually stumble and have a great loss, or experience a long swing of losses. With that will come emotions like Anger, Despair, Depression, Guilt, Remorse, and so forth. You truly have no idea on how to handle it until it happens to you, and no amount of reading in the world is truly going to "fix" the issue. Its completely normal metaphysically to go through this, and with each iteration of the event, it becomes easier and easier.

    KJ do you remember your first decent loss? I do. It was peanuts compared to what I play with now, but at the time I was so let down by the fact that I had been chose that day to be the unfortunate soul to experience negative variance. I was cherry red and steaming from both ears. Through every iteration and reiteration though, we become immune to that feeling because we are mentally so reinforced by the fact that we did the right thing and that we did no wrong, that the only "sting" is a tightness of the BR.

  3. #29


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    It is so important for an adequate bankroll and be prepared emotionally of what will be coming.

  4. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    I have seen the word "angry" used in a couple different threads now, in reference to a player feeling angry when losing. I don't get this. Perhaps people are just not expressing the correct emotion? My blackjack results for the year now stand just above $2200. That is for 7 months, 45,600 rounds of play. This compared to my last two years where my BJ results have been $120k+ and $80k+. The handling of long losing an unproductive periods are definitely one of my biggest weaknesses. I am frustrated as hell, but I am not "angry". Who would I be angry at?
    My feeling exactly. To do this you need to understand that by making the appropriate bet all the time you will win in the long run the average advantage for that bet times the total amount bet will approach EV. Then you need to be BRed enough to play long enough to get there. Each bet amount is made at its own frequency and will require different amounts of play to be in the long run for any particular bet level in your spread. You will get to overall N0 long before you get to your max bet's N0.

    Sorry , went on a ramble there. What I was trying to say is keep putting up the bets because the long run contains lots of losses. You will in the end have a percentage of every bet made at any count. Those big bets are the largest and have the highest percent advantage. You can't be afraid to put them out and you can't be upset about individual outcomes. Making these bets are your bread and butter. Being able to handle anything that happens is your sanity. I may get frustrated but that is about it for emotion. Many times I find myself laughing at the unlikely occurrences that combine to make me lose. It losses its humor value after enough losses but I don't get angry.

  5. #31


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    you should practice with some software and regain composure and confidence in your game. Absolutely should no money be risked when your rattled like this.

  6. #32
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    Anger to me is a sign of too much "gambling". If you are rolled enough and prepare enough you should not even flinch at negative variance. I found the somewhat "inner peace" with my play when I played with someone else's BR. LOL. I completely threw out the fact that there was monetary value to the money. I know it's hard to believe. I had zero risk, so it made this much easier. And the RoR of the team BR for our play was less than 1%. I have since transferred that into every play whether it is with my own BR or with partner/partners or strictly on someone else's BR. My success with BJ has sky-rocketed (I don't know if this directly had an effect or not, I doubt it) and my overall happiness in life is higher.

  7. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
    I saw a near instant RC of +26 today on 6D, maintained a TC+2-4 for almost 3.5-4 decks before it settled down, played through the end of the shoe at TC-2 flat betting...
    KILLING your ev, bro...forget ror, you playing over your risk tolerance...which is completely different

    good luck

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    I split 10 vs 5/6 about 3-4 times I lost about two times. So losing already is a cover.
    Losing 2 out of 4 is meaningless. Losing 20000 out of 40000 now that is serious.

  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zach Black View Post
    You might consider spreading out your play. This casino might not tolerate your attempt to get into the long run . The chain has 9 other locations with similar conditions.
    Yeah, it is kind of strange the OP has singled out Palace Station, which has a reputation of probably the sweatiest of station properties, plus there are much better games at other station properties. I guess what PS has going for it is close proximity to the strip, where other properties all require a car or long bus ride.

    One, non-BJ 'opinion' concerning Palace Station. The buffet is not only the worst of any Feast (station) buffet, but may be the worst in all of Vegas, now that S7 has upgraded a hair (like the hair found in mashed potatoes...).


  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    ...with heads up play on $5 minimum table with $1600 it contains a ROR of 13.5%.
    Are you playing 1 hand or spreading to 2? Spreading to 2 hands lowers your ROR. When I sim this with a top bet of $30 on 1 hand I get a ROR slightly higher 17.3 but drops to 11.5 if spread to 2 hands. Score and N0 improve as well. Thats simply a high ROR and you will bust it often. If its a replaceable roll then don't sweat it you'll come out ahead more often.

  11. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by ohbehave View Post
    Spreading to 2 hands lowers your ROR. .
    True, but it will likely shorten how long you can play as this move is not well tolerated in Vegas on double deck games.

    It's better to start with two hands after the shuffle and drop to one in negative counts from a longevity standpoint.

  12. #38


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    ZB is correct for longevity. Doing so will increase his ROR. He could change it up each shuffle to get a balance of longevity and risk.

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    It is so important for an adequate bankroll and be prepared emotionally of what will be coming.
    This is probably the biggest point of this thread. I've had a few "big" losses now, doing what I should, and I feel like I'd be done for if I didn't have a big enough BR to handle the larger losses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Sorry , went on a ramble there. What I was trying to say is keep putting up the bets because the long run contains lots of losses. You will in the end have a percentage of every bet made at any count. Those big bets are the largest and have the highest percent advantage. You can't be afraid to put them out and you can't be upset about individual outcomes. Making these bets are your bread and butter. Being able to handle anything that happens is your sanity. I may get frustrated but that is about it for emotion. Many times I find myself laughing at the unlikely occurrences that combine to make me lose. It losses its humor value after enough losses but I don't get angry.
    Sage wisdom right there.

    Quote Originally Posted by RobinHood21 View Post
    Anger to me is a sign of too much "gambling". If you are rolled enough and prepare enough you should not even flinch at negative variance. I found the somewhat "inner peace" with my play when I played with someone else's BR. LOL. I completely threw out the fact that there was monetary value to the money. I know it's hard to believe. I had zero risk, so it made this much easier. And the RoR of the team BR for our play was less than 1%. I have since transferred that into every play whether it is with my own BR or with partner/partners or strictly on someone else's BR. My success with BJ has sky-rocketed (I don't know if this directly had an effect or not, I doubt it) and my overall happiness in life is higher.
    Anger has very little, if anything, to do with gambling. Its a natural human emotion. Do people who gamble sometimes get angry? Yes. But that emotion is not wholly operated by those who gamble. I see, now, why you discuss anger as if its non-existent to you, but some of us play on our own BR, not others. If I were on someone else's BR, much like you, I'd have nothing but sunshine and rainbows to talk about 24/7/365

    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    KILLING your ev, bro...forget ror, you playing over your risk tolerance...which is completely different

    good luck
    Do I have to spell it out for you? L-O-N-G-E-V-I-T-Y. Why would I care about flat betting through a TC-2 count if I just murdered the shoe and now need to "cool off" a bit for my exit?

    I'm starting to question how much some of you guys really play, because I get responses like this from time to time and it makes me think either you guys are off in la-la land, or you're so robotic with your entrance/exit that you forget about cover and longevity, and that's going to bite you in the ass if you aren't careful. Like KJ and T3 have said before, sometimes you have to play through a negative count for longevity's sake, or to relax a little heat.

    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    As the saying goes in athletics, "take it one game at a time". In blackjack, I prefer to view results one session at a time. Norm helped me to gain a better understanding of the word "variance". Nowadays, I find myself saying in my head, "that is just variance." Don S. mentioned a while back about not going into a table with an idea of winning or losing mentality. I believe I'm always going to win or I wouldn't take a seat. However, losing is a huge part of the game. I think is was Shakespere that once wrote a key to happiness is not setting expectations...the flip side is sadness/anger due to unmet expectation.
    Bingo ( on the last part ), but its a hard one to swallow for anyone with a brain because we "know" we have the advantage when we see it, we just sometimes forget that we may never see a true advantage for days or weeks, or even win an advantage hand for days and weeks. Its all up in the air with what comes out next, we just have to make adjustments according to our best interests.

    Also, I too view my results in sessions or "days" depending on if I casino hop or not, and its somewhat of a comfort to go back to my session logs after a tough loss or a less than expected win, and see the facts in front of me.

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