Anyone play over the 4th i

[KJ]

I can only imagine the pressure to guarantee the monthly income. I believe that if I were in his shoes, it would make me crazy and I would try to gain all the edges possible. I am sure he has probably done that and, as you said, decided on what's best for him. I totally respect that. I was just curious if that was motivated by his limitations or by the technique's limitations.

There is no monthly income from blackjack card counting. That idea of weekly and monthly income is one of the concepts you need to divorce yourself from early on. I am on a yearly pay period. At the end of the year, I break the bank, take profits, reset the bank and begin again. It's possible that a year too might be too small of a segment to 'guarantee' any sort of profit. There have been many professional players who have experienced a losing year. But I think what makes me different from them is the amount of play that I put in.

As a grinder type player, I try to hit 80,000 rounds, where as most professional player play much less. Such a large number of rounds played pushes you into the long-term and makes a losing year less likely. This much longer periods between paydays, however a player does it, it one of the difficulties of playing for a living. It's one of the reasons that having another income, or a spouse with other income is very beneficial. In my own case, I now have monthly rental income which does the trick nicely.

So I really don't feel pressure or put pressure on myself to win. It will happen. The math says it will happen and the math is always correct. The idea I was trying to make about long periods (months) of losing, isn't about doubt that I will win, it's more of a mental, psychological thing that just wears you down while you wait. That is a hard concept to get used to and I haven't mastered it yet.

[code red]

Whats your N0 KJ? Just curious.

[stopgambling]

Well you said it , It is a job,so treat it like a job . Try to balance it with other activities which you no doubt know how to .

[KJ]

Whats your N0 KJ? Just curious.

Can't say as I know. I play many different games, with different spreads, penetrations which all have very different N0's. Limiting myself to the better games with lower N0's would be a way to shorten downswings and stagnant periods. Many players go that route....I don't. My priority is longevity and playing a larger rotation of games, including some games with higher N0's is all part of that. As long as the game is +EV, I add it to the mix.

It's not a race to me, it's a destination. I will get there. I am the tortoise. It's just sometimes the tortoise wakes up after a nap and say "geez, I haven't made much progress". That's what long stagnant periods feel like to me.

[code red]

It's not a race to me, it's a destination. I will get there. I am the tortoise. It's just sometimes the tortoise wakes up after a nap and say "geez, I haven't made much progress". That's what long stagnant periods feel like to me.

Damn. Mr. No emotion. My N0 ranges 9k-10k. Do you think losing streaks would be even near what you have experienced?
By the way are you using CVCX for each game you play?

[KJ]

By the way are you using CVCX for each game you play?

Nope. CVCX is a tool, and I have used it enough to know what I am dealing with each time I sit down, without actually using it for each game and situation.

Anyway, I feel like I hijacked this thread and for that I apologize to SURFER. I just found the question posed by AP360 about still LOVING the game interesting and wanted to provide an honest answer from my perspective.

[SURFER]

Know worries KJ love reading your post.

[Skull]

The idea I was trying to make about long periods (months) of losing, isn't about doubt that I will win, it's more of a mental, psychological thing that just wears you down while you wait. That is a hard concept to get used to and I haven't mastered it yet.

Thanks for your answers KJ.

I couldn't doubt that you will win. I know you will win, because you have been doing that (winning) for a long time already and I praise you for that.

I was also referring to the psychological aspect of it. It would be hard for me.

I expressed myself wrong when I talked about the monthly income. I understand there is no way you can guarantee it in a monthly basis. It's just that the bills keep coming monthly anyway...

If you hijacked anything, I guess I helped, so (you and Surfer) forgive me for that.

Best cards to you!

[AP360]

...I feel like I hijacked this thread and for that I apologize to SURFER. I just found the question posed by AP360 about still LOVING the game interesting and wanted to provide an honest answer from my perspective.

No worries KJ, I'm sure noone on here minds that you shared some of your personal situations with the members. As you can tell, and already know, you've built a pretty loyal following of aspiring card counters. Many of which have followed you from your days on the East Coast all the way to the present day. You provide many on here a sense of being able to relate to one another, as many are struggling with the everyday nuances of straight counting and/or taking a plunge into CC underfunded. You're definitely admired by many, and well deserved. I sometimes think back on the chats we had back in the day, when we were both in our earli(er) days. Good stuff!!

Back to the thread --

I completely understand some of your feelings, in terms of not being "excited" about playing as in prior years. Also, the flat-line results don't help that either. I does kind of become a job when you have a steady rotation/region that you mostly frequent. I could relate, as most of my play is in the East. Monotony does kick in at times and sometimes it gets harder to get motivated, but as you stated, as long as the EV is there, then the math will take care of itself.
Like everything in life, there's that sense of excitement when something is new to us that can't be replicated as time passes by. Kind of like that first high off of (insert party favor of choice), people spend their whole lives trying to recapture that first high.

I digress, I still love the game, and AP in general, as I'm learning everyday. I'm able to practice what I learn and learn from my mistakes. It gets to a point where you can have an impact and/or effect on others not as experienced as you are and that's extremely gratifying. The money will come and go, the ambition for creating and achieving positive results is still there and that's what probably creates most of the frustration and lack of motivation that you're going through right now.

Keep at it - you're doing great!!

[metronome]

I am happy for you! Hope you won 5 figures or more.

O

Hey ouchez, I showed a $615.00 profit, the degenerate red chipper that I am

[Three]

Which is, If I can raise a 1.2% edge to 1.49%, would it matter? My answer of course being yes, because numbers don't lie, but his thought process was a little leaner than mine as he narrowed the argument down to a single hand. Both actions in a given game seeing the same response ,we'd make the same money on a single hand, and it would only be in the rule deviations and indices that I'd ever truly feel or notice the difference in moving to a "level 2 or level 3 count w/ extras".

The fallacy in most of peoples thoughts or comparisons of simple and more complex is that with a more complex approach you bet more with the same ROR and BR. Most don't seem to factor that in to their assessments. A quick visit to the toolbar's CVCX online viewer shows the optimal ramp for $100K BR, 16:1 optimal spread and 5% ROR for HILO and HIOPT II/ace side playall 6D/52 S17, DAS LS:

HILO full indices: $419.37/100 rounds, 5% ROR, N0 15913
TC <= -1, 0: 101; (29.76% freq, EV -1.68%), (41.34% freq, EV -0.28%)
TC +1: 268; (10.73% freq, EV +0.52%)
TC +2: 565; (7.49%, +1.08%)
TC +3: 887; (3.65%, +1.71%)
TC +4 1211; (2.84%, +2.36%)
TC +5 1526; (1.36%, +3%)
TC >= +6: 1616; (2.82%, ~4,8%)

HIOPT II/ace side full indices: $482.23/100 rounds, 5% ROR, N0 13897
TC <= -1, 0, +1: 110; (40.68%, -1.34%), (17.72%, -0.3%), (10.05%, 0.02%)
TC +2: 181; (8.26%, +0.35%)
TC +3: 371; (5.35%, +0.71%)
TC +4: 543; (4.59%, 1.04%)
TC +5: 728; (2.94%, +1.39%)
TC +6: 914; (2.58%, +1.75%)
TC +7: 1127; (1.68%, +2.16%)
TC +8: 1292; (1.48%, +2.49%)
TC +9: 1506; (0.99%, +2.92%)
TC +10: 1688; (0.86%, +3.29%)
TC +11: 1760; (0.60%, +3.67%)
TC >= +12: 1760; (2.20%, +5.49%)

HIOPT II EV is 15% larger than HILO mostly because for the same BR and ROR the optimal spread bets 9% more than HILO (HILO needs to play at 6.3% ROR to have the same optimal bets as HIOPT II at 5% ROR as in this example and will only have an EV of $456.72. HIOPT II has 5.6% higher EV with a 20.75% lower RoR when the same optimal spread is used for the same BR). Some is because of the increments are what HILO would be half point TC for full TC HIOPT II. This makes for more accurate bets and decisions. Add some more for the level 2 being better for BC and PE on most hands and the increase in PE for being an ace neutral count. for the same BR. I hope the true difference is apparent when digesting these examples.

[Three]

This game is about money management as much as it is about counting. The money management advantages of a complex system is where most of the 15-20% increase in EV comes from. The above example suggests 2/3rds of the 15-20% increase comes from the money management edge gained by a more complex system.

[Nikky_Flash]

LOVE THIS GAME?? That's interesting...

I don't know if I still love this game. I definitely used to. I do still love that I am able to support myself playing this game and with the elementary methods that I choose and feel comfortable using. But, if I am being honest, I no longer wake up excited about heading out to play blackjack. But I don't hate the game either...although there are some days.....

I am pretty good with the swings involved. Big losing days. But what I still struggle with is extended losing and almost as bad extended periods of just going along flat, not really winning, nor losing. When those weeks stretch into months...that's when it really starts to get to me. It just becomes harder for me to get motivated. I still believe in the math, and know the paths of EV and winnings will come back in line with where they should be, but there are just days that I just don't feel like playing blackjack....days that it is a job, and I am like millions of folks forcing myself to go to that job.

Unfortunately, my whole year has been in that flat, underperforming mode. I am in the black, but way below EV (now less 1/4 of EV for the year). And this game that I used to love really feels very much like a job right now.

Hope it starts picking up for you KJ ! I'm sure I speak for many of us when I say I've learned more than just a thing or two from you generously-sharing your knowledge and skillz here -