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Originally Posted by
ZeeBabar
KJ: If you were to graph the 11 years in Las Vegas, would you say there is an incline upwards or downwards? They say that heat has increased and games have gotten poorer so one would think income would decline as well. Do you see patterns? If you go by months,do you see higher income in winter months and less in summer or vice versa? Do you win more on holiday weekends or less crowded weekends?
You write that you are doing better than your original expectations 11 years ago? Is it because you have become a better player and in what areas?
ZeeBabar, I have only been in Vegas 4 and a half years (5 years in Dec). The first part of my career was on the east coast mostly playing Atlantic City. I know that you are contemplating relocating, and really don't want my experiences to influence you too much. I think I have done that with a few guys already.
But I will say that I have seen no real decline in BJ during my time here. I haven't noticed an increase in 6-5 games. They were dominate at the lower level, evil empire games and still are. They also were big downtown and I have actually seen a decline in 6-5 down there as some were pulled when 'the D' replaced Fitzgeralds at least one other downtown property GN followed suit and removed some 6-5 games at that same time. Also, no spike in CSM games. If anything a decline as a few places have switched over to ASM. BUT, there has been a slight decline in total number of straight BJ tables, as some have been replaced by other games with a higher house edge and some have some sort of side bet which slows the game down.
I have basically played the same level my entire time here, so there has been no dramatic increase in my results. My first few years here, my BJ results were in the mid to high 5 figure range and the last couple have averaged right at the 6 figure mark, but that is skewed by my best year, last year and only year that my BJ results have toped 6 figures, so I don't think that a fair comparison. A better measuring stick in my mind is the EV that I generate and that has been pretty constant my whole time here in the upper 5 figures. My big improvement has been that I have hit that with slightly less play over the past few years, meaning my game has grown stronger or at least more efficient and a large part of that has to do with what I have learned and continue to learn from my participation on these two blackjack sites that you participate on. And on this topic, a little unsolicited advice, if I may, you might try antagonizing those members that you can learn so much from a little less on both sites.
There are no patterns to anything. Everything is too small of a sample size to go looking in that direction or put any kind of meaning behind any patterns that you might see. Holiday and big event weekends provide an opportunity to attack some games differently and attack some games not in my regular rotation. The opportunity is there to bet bigger and still play within the shadows, but crowded conditions, means slower play and less rounds per hour, so it evens out. I don't really generate more EV during those times, just generate it differently. And negatives associated with those periods, crowded conditions, more drunkenness and stupidness and even more thieves, pickpockets and scammers. So while those periods provide an opportunity to expand my attack beyond my regular model and rotation, it isn't one of my favorite periods to play. Like playing graveyard periodically, you do so to mix it up.
My comment about expectations was a little foggy. I actually had expectations when I started. Unrealistic expectations to make a million dollars over my first 10 years. I do average 6 figures now, from my AP play which includes, not only my BJ play but a couple supplemental things, but those expectations were very unrealistic for that time and the level of play I started with and I did not come close. So what I meant by that comment is that if the second half of this year were to mirror the first and my total earnings fell back to the mid five figure range I would be ok with that. That is still a step up from where I came, (a less than 20 thousand dollar retail job). If it had turned out that mid 5 figure range was my top potential, I would have been ok with that. Fortunately, for me, I've been trending much better than that. 
And now in my 11th year I have come to KNOW that anything can happen at any time in this game. Hell Last year, I had a 6 figure run in a span of 5 weeks. Those 5 weeks ended up accounting for 90% of my years total. Again, anything can happen at anytime.
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