TC & Spread precision for DD vs 6D?

[RS]

Something I got to thinking about the other day. How precise do you have to be in your betting ramp to play at the same EV/hour? While we are spreading, it isn't the wisest thing, longevity-wise, to bet precisely with the TC, for camo/cover reasons. Let's say we spreading 1-6 on a DD, we might bet 2 units at TC=2, 4 at TC=3, and 6 at TC=>4. So basically, any time the TC is 2 or higher, we have an edge.

What kind of effects would we have if we were to bet, semi-randomly, between 2 to 6 units when the TC is 2 or higher. Of course, we'd be leaning more towards being as accurate as we can (ie: Bet 2-3 units when TC=2, bet 4-6 units when TC is 3 or higher, and not betting 6units at TC = 2, or 2 units at TC=>4).

Say you're always betting within 1 unit of your predestined ramp, but aren't betting exactly 100% in sync with your ramp. Does this have a significant impact on EV? Variancce? N0? Other factors/statistics?

I would think for DD, it wouldn't have a huge impact, because you are playing a lot in +EV situations, that as long as you're getting a rough-estimate of what you should be betting, you'll be making +EV....although I see how variance could be a stronger factor with this type of action.


On the other hand, with 6D, you aren't playing that much in +EV situations, so you more likely want to be betting the optimal units per TC. However, since you're playing with a much larger spread in 6D than you would be in DD, it seems like the differences in EV and variance would be similar to if you were using this type of strategy in a DD.

If you're backcounting 6D, then it's similar to DD, in the way that you'll be playing mostly in +EV situations, so as long as you get a bet out, regardless if it's "optimal" or not, you're still in +EV territory, although variance is also a factor.


How do you guys feel about this? Or is this not good at all?

[bigplayer]

From an EV stand point at each count level what is important is your average bet at each true count. From a flux standpoint betting varying amounts at the same true count makes the long-run longer. The secret to getting into the long run is doing everything exactly the same, betting the correct amount at each true count, repeatedly. You get into the long run the fastest by betting in proportion to your advantage.

Realize most of your win comes at extreme true counts where you get massive advantages often in excess of 5% which is why penetration and betting in proportion to your advantage is so important. To bet the same amount at a 0.5% edge as you bet at a 5% edge exposes you to a huge amount of extra risk. Increasing your bet at higher advantages has a multiplier effect on your win rate. (betting 10x more money at 3% than you bet at 0.5% carries 60x the EV whereas betting the same amount would have only 6x the EV). You get into the long run (i.e., Expectation outraces Variance) much faster by betting to your advantage.

[darkside]

Forget about optimal betting if you play dd. Not only counts fluctuate drastically so you don't have choice to change your Bet according to count but also they play will help casinos to identify you within thirty minutes if they are not dumb. You have to develop your own strategy. DD cover play is much more complex.

[bigplayer]

Deep Penetration and near empty tables are extremely impt for double deck if you want any chance to remain invisible. Shallow pen and crowded tables make your play much more blatant looking. You will usually have to play 1 of 2 styles

1. Deeply cut game heads up, very polite spread like 1-5 with no cover or 1-8 betting 2 or 3 units off the top and only dropping to 1 unit when the count tanks.
2. Poorly cut game with other players...1-10 spread, no cover OR 1-20 spread betting random amounts in neutral counts to throw off the eye.

For this reason many people prefer not to screw around and just focus on shoes where they can spread 1-50 with no cover. Rules can have a profound effect on whether a poorly cut double deck game is playable. A center cut s17 ds double decker is beatable...A Center Cut h17 ds double decker is not really beatable unless you have something else going on.