Calculations. Needed

[code red]

If you can't make the right plays pbecause of the size of bet you have out then you are over betting. Your EV isn't what you would think it is if you play your top hands weakly. If you play right while playing 2 spots you might get as many as 10 max bets or even more out on one round usually at a big advantage. You really rack up the EV. Of course the swing potential is large on that round. My guess is if you had Norm's software you wouldn't be betting at a level you can't play a strong game at. You would either be comfortable doing it or you would bet at a level that you can play like an AP rather than a ploppy.

Best advice out there. I'm a red chipper and the software has already paid for itself

[TonsOfFun]

One thing that you need to remember when you have those big bets out there. You don't win more hands than the dealer even with the high count. Your EV comes from doubles, splits and blackjacks. It took me a while to actually understand that when playing. Best of luck to you.

[BlackJackMonster]

Could you please explain a bit more about it, I thougth high count means bigger advantage over the dealer which means more winning hands.

One thing that you need to remember when you have those big bets out there. You don't win more hands than the dealer even with the high count. Your EV comes from doubles, splits and blackjacks. It took me a while to actually understand that when playing. Best of luck to you.

[Three]

Could you please explain a bit more about it, I thougth high count means bigger advantage over the dealer which means more winning hands.

You get more and better advantages for doubles and splits along with more Blackjacks. You win almost the exact same percentage of all hands played at high counts but push more often and lose less often. The expectation on doubles and splits are much higher per dollar and you have bigger bets out.

Check out the numbers:

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

[Zach Black]

Could you please explain a bit more about it, I thougth high count means bigger advantage over the dealer which means more winning hands.

Try looking at this chart

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

"The win percentage, in red, does slightly increase. However, it only increases from 41.6% of hands at a true count of -18, to 42.7% at TC zero to about 44% at TC +18. The percentage of hands lost does decrease somewhat at the higher card counts. Most of this is offset by an increase in pushes"

[seriousplayer]

You get more and better advantages for doubles and splits along with more Blackjacks. You win almost the exact same percentage of all hands played at high counts but push more often and lose less often. The expectation on doubles and splits are much higher per dollar and you have bigger bets out.

Check out the numbers:

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

It is not that clear to just say at advantage counts you get more and better doubles and splits along with more Blackjack. Let me explain in details what happens in high counts.

At high counts it mean higher ten density left in the deck. With greater ten density the player has a bigger advantage on his double downs. Instead of a 6% advantage on a specific double down play the player will have a 10% edge when the ten density is high. When a count is low the double downs will be less frequent as indicated by basic strategy. Because the ten density is greater the player will get more blackjack and we get pay 3:2 in blackjack instead of even money. Blackjacks will be dealt less frequently at low counts. Splitting become more profit against a dealer's stiff hand because the dealer will bust with a ten when drawing a card on the stiff. Splits will be less frequent at low counts.The dealer's bust rate on their stiff hands will increase due to the high ten density because dealer must draw on 12-16 according to the rules of the game. While we have the option to not draw on the stiff hands the dealer does not. With negative counts the dealer is more likely to turn stiff hands into pat hands.

Additional gains is the proper insurance wagering with high ten density. The surrender rule increase in value with big bets out.

All the above I've mention are factors that contribute to giving the player an advantage over the house when the deck is rich in tens.

Hope this clear things up. Willing to accept any feedback.

[BlackJackMonster]

Guys, thanks for the explanation and link, that was quite educating, so the point of the counting is not about winning more hands at high TC, but more about betting properly according the TC hoping to get a blackjack, double down or split against dealer's stiff.

I was in the casino last weekend finally got a hot shoe with TC >=8, I bet my max bet head on with dealer and however, the dealer ended up getting most of the 20s blackjacks and I got all the stiff, so in the end I lost most of my bankroll during the hot shoe.

Does it actually happen often?

It is not that clear to just say at advantage counts you get more and better doubles and splits along with more Blackjack. Let me explain in details what happens in high counts.

At high counts it mean higher ten density left in the deck. With greater ten density the player has a bigger advantage on his double downs. Instead of a 6% advantage on a specific double down play the player will have a 10% edge when the ten density is high. When a count is low the double downs will be less frequent as indicated by basic strategy. Because the ten density is greater the player will get more blackjack and we get pay 3:2 in blackjack instead of even money. Blackjacks will be dealt less frequently at low counts. Splitting become more profit against a dealer's stiff hand because the dealer will bust with a ten when drawing a card on the stiff. Splits will be less frequent at low counts.The dealer's bust rate on their stiff hands will increase due to the high ten density because dealer must draw on 12-16 according to the rules of the game. While we have the option to not draw on the stiff hands the dealer does not. With negative counts the dealer is more likely to turn stiff hands into pat hands.

Additional gains is the proper insurance wagering with high ten density. The surrender rule increase in value with big bets out.

All the above I've mention are factors that contribute to giving the player an advantage over the house when the deck is rich in tens.

Hope this clear things up. Willing to accept any feedback.

[BlackJackMonster]

The thing that is puzzling me right now is that we start a fresh shoe with like say -0.66% advantage 8deck no LS, hit 17, DAS, according the Arnold Synder's book, the advantage =-0.66 in this case+TC*0.3%, so if this advantage fomula is not really indicating the winning vs losing advantage, what is this advantage for, just for betting purpose?

[Norm]

The thing that is puzzling me right now is that we start a fresh shoe with like say -0.66% advantage 8deck no LS, hit 17, DAS, according the Arnold Synder's book, the advantage =-0.66 in this case+TC*0.3%, so if this advantage fomula is not really indicating the winning vs losing advantage, what is this advantage for, just for betting purpose?

I don't quite understand the question. But, you should know that the formula you are quoting is a very rough rule-of-thumb.

[BlackJackMonster]

What I was trying to asking is that when you calculate ur bet

the bet is related to the advantage, like say if I have a TC count of 2, then advantage should be roughly 0, which I used to assume I would be even with the dealer,meaning the hands I win will be the same of the hands that dealer wins, but from the SIM data it is not the case,

so what does this advantage number stand for, what kinda advantage is it about? Hopefully I express myself better this time and thanks in advance

I don't quite understand the question. But, you should know that the formula you are quoting is a very rough rule-of-thumb.

[Three]

so what does this advantage number stand for, what kinda advantage is it about? Hopefully I express myself better this time and thanks in advance

If you make enough bets at that advantage your average return is that percentage of your total bets. If you bet at TC 0 100 bets of $10 each you have bet $10,000. You expect to have lost .66% (your quoted advantage for TC 0) of this total or you would expect to have lost $66.

[muckz]

What I was trying to asking is that when you calculate ur bet

the bet is related to the advantage, like say if I have a TC count of 2, then advantage should be roughly 0, which I used to assume I would be even with the dealer,meaning the hands I win will be the same of the hands that dealer wins, but from the SIM data it is not the case,

so what does this advantage number stand for, what kinda advantage is it about? Hopefully I express myself better this time and thanks in advance

The advantage is what you can expect for return on investment. At TC 2 you do not win .3% more hands or whatever advantage your count gives you, you win .3% of what you bet. The advantage is a cumulative of all money put on the table, doubles splits busts etc.

[Three]

You make 20 bets of $200 at TC +5 (advantage 2.5%) you expect to win $100 on those bets ($4000*0.025 =$100).