Double Up Blackjack

[TeepsConPeeps]

I just came across this game (described HERE and here) and was thinking this may be a very vulnerable game for AP play. The house edge isn't ridiculously low (not bad for a 6 deck game) but with the "double up" opportunity it seems a much larger return can be expected on high counts. Does anyone have any experience with this blackjack variant? Do strategy/indices change much given the odd rules? Is there a way to sim expected EV on this game?

Any help, insight, or experience is greatly appreciated!

Cheers,

Teeps

[Exoter175]

On first read, I'm inclined to say that not only does this game not have an approachable AP value, but I'm willing to bet its house edge is somewhere from 5-11%. I believe that for a few reasons, 1. The pushing all hands except 21 when a dealer draws to 16 hard/soft, and then again losing the "double up" bet on a push. I barely skimmed the rules, but from those two points alone, I have to believe that game has a MONSTER house edge against the player. Can it be beaten with a count? I'm sure there's got to be some possibility there, but the percentages in the absolute best counts would likely yield an abysmal size advantage if any.

[Three]

I think shuffling the cards before every deal (rule 1) and using a 6 decks makes counting almost useless. I guess that means CSM's.

Rule 1: "Double Up Blackjack is played with a six standard decks of playing cards, shuffled together in a shoe before every deal."

"Shuffled together in a shoe" sure sounds like a CSM to me.

[TeepsConPeeps]

I'm willing to bet its house edge is somewhere from 5-11%.

This is why as APs, we don't make bets without first using all of the information provided - in the link I provided, it states a house edge of just 0.313.

Tthree,
That first rule does sure make it sound like it's dealt from a CSM - in this particular circumstance however, I'm talking about a game I actually found and know first hand that it's dealt from a shoe with good penetration.

[SiMi]

Hi, TCP!
Interesting... The House is not using a CSM? What is the penetration you're seeing? Is this in Canada? Are you seeing these games in a lot of places in your area?
I noticed the author of the paper (a Canadian) claims to have written a computer program to determine the house edge of 0.313%. The paper says he used "optimum decisions" for the player at each point. The author's email appears on the paper. You could email and ask him what IS the optimal strategy (Basic Strategy) for this game and how he determined it.
For example, for a BS for this game, it seems likely you would always Double Up with a 2 card 20 vs. a dealer 5 or less. Might be true for even higher Dealer Up Cards.
It would be a starting point for further analysis if you believe the game is beatable and will last quite a while or spread around your area.

I found the following at wizard of vegas web site:

"An infinite-deck model shows the playing strategy is very similar to the regular H17 game, and Hi-Lo would be adequate for counting it. And here is the double-up strategy: Always double-up 21 and 20. Double-up 19 vs 2-8. Double-up soft 18 vs 7 and hard 18 vs 5 and 7."

I wish I had more time... I have written a simulator for 'normal' rules but it would be some work to change the rules to comport with these. But, if this is common and has good pen., it would be worth looking at.
If you learn more about this issue, please post it here.

Thanks!
SiMi

[TeepsConPeeps]

SiMi,
Thanks for weighing in! I hadn't thought of contacting the author of that paper - I will do so now and see if he can provide a basic strategy.

It is a very uncommon game but the pen is around 80-82% and if HiLo and an only slightly altered strategy are all that's required to beat it, it's worth it to add to the arsenal.

[SiMi]

TCP
Yes, I completely agree about the arsenal! Bummer that it is rare but I am always open to learning new things and this game sounds interesting with some potential for an edge. As long as I can get a decent edge, I will look at it!! Who knows, it might catch on...
I made a note to myself to look at adding this game to my sim.
Please post here if you hear back from the author!

SiMi

[Three]

It is a very uncommon game but the pen is around 80-82% and if HiLo and an only slightly altered strategy are all that's required to beat it, it's worth it to add to the arsenal.

Usually with carny games the gain from complicated approaches are well worth the effort unlike in shoe dealt BJ.

[Three]

OK. I will delete my post so as to not draw unwanted attention to this fact.

[TeepsConPeeps]

OK. I will delete my post so as to not draw unwanted attention to this fact.

Ditto. Cheers.