Where is the win coming from?

[seriousplayer]

As APs we know that we have an advantage by counting cards. How much we win depends on how long we play. From the theory of card counting we know that when the count turns positive the probability of our overall win is still 42.42%, lose of 49.10% and tie 8.49%. With a positive count we are more successful with the splits, double downs and blackjacks. Also, dealer bust rate increases. Surrender and insurance is more valuable to the players at positive counts.

If the overall probability of win, lose and tie don't change when we are counting cards why do we have a greater probability of being ahead? In Modern Blackjack and Blackjack Attack it shows that our probability of being ahead exceeds the overall probability of our loses (49.10%). So where did the win come from?

http://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage415.htm
http://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage416.htm

[Three]

So where did the win come from?

You bet more at an advantage and bet less or nothing at a disadvantage.

You get more BJ's which are paid a bonus, more surrender opportunities which all save money, More frequent doubles and splits with better results for each. So winning and extra half bet and losing a half bet less and getting more money out on the table by doubling and splitting and winning a higher percentage of those opportunities is the bulk of it. The following link shows the win rate is not changed much but as it does increase a little as the push rates increase more and the lose rate drops most of all. At TC 0 when negating pushes you win about 43 of 92 hands or about 46.7% at TC +4 you win 43 of 90 hands or 47.7% (negating pushes)

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

[seriousplayer]

You bet more at an advantage nad bet less or nothing at a disadvantage.

You get more BJ's which are paid a bonus, more surrender opportunities which all save money, More frequent doubles and splits with better results for each. So winning and extra half bet and losing a half bet less and getting more money out on the table by doubling and splitting and winning a higher percentage of those opportunities is the bulk of it. The following link shows the win rate is not changed much but as it does increase a little as the push rates increase more and the lose rate drops most of all. At TC 0 when negating pushes you win about 43 of 92 hands or about 46.7% at TC +4 you win 43 of 90 hands or 47.7% (negating pushes)

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

Given 50 rounds how do we know the percentage of blackjack, surrender, doubles, and splits we will receive? In Modern it said we will win 52% of our sessions. The time a play 50 rounds I didn't come across that many positive counts in shoe games.

[Three]

Given 50 rounds how do we know the percentage of blackjack, surrender, doubles, and splits we will receive?

You don't. If you read your links from Norm's book, The longer your sessions the more likely you are to be ahead. I personally leave when :
1) I have hit a predetermined win and the count is not an advantage count
2) When I have played long enough for the casino I am at.
3) If I had played with too many swings in my bet.

#1 obviously weights bias on the wins. 100% wins when this criterion is met.
#3 has a lot of advantage betting opportunities but can result in losses almost as often as wins.
#2 means few advantage betting opportunities. It will most likely result in a loss but doesn't heavily favor losses.

[Norm]

The point of the charts is that you don't win by winning more hands. You win by betting more when you win hands and getting more splits, doubles and insurance wins. Before you understand this, card counting can be very frustrating. I realize this, not only from my own experiences, but by the rather huge number of e-mails and phone calls over the last 20 years from users of my software that complain they don't win the hands when the count is positive, and therefore, either card counting doesn't work or the software is flawed..

Of course understanding this, and getting over the frustrations of feeling it are two different things. But, that's going to be true in any vocation.

[KJ]

I personally leave when :
1) I have hit a predetermined win and the count is not an advantage count
2) When I have played long enough for the casino I am at.
3) If I had played with too many swings in my bet.

It's funny, T3, at first reading, I was all prepared to launch into a 'stop win' and 'stop loss' tirade. I just have a strong dislike for the concept of stop wins and/or stop losses, as most players use them. But at second thought, there is an obvious reason, why you don't want to rack up too big a win and draw attention.

It's impossible for this to be an issue for me, because I have other exit points that would be triggered before any kind of win limit. Mainly a big win will be the result of a high positive count and winning big bets and once I have shown my spread I am exiting anyway.

There is the possibility that the count could remain fairly neutral and you could just rack up a big enough win, wagering minimum wagers, but that would take quite a bit of time, and I have a secondary time exit trigger. If the count has not risen to the point that I have shown my spread, nor dropped to my negative count wong out exit point, I will exit after 45 minutes to an hour, just because I don't want to put too much info on tape in one sitting.

So for me, that 'predetermined win' is just never going to come into play. But I can see that others play differently than I do (not as much hit and run) and may want or need to get more table time in after traveling further to a game. So I can see where, someone might need to consider a stop win trigger.

[Three]

How do you predetermine your exit win key? Is it based on your bankroll, table or min bet. pit tolerance?

It is based on casino win tolerance.

[Three]

Question to KJ and t3: What parameters constitute a time to begin play? Empty table, busy/slow casino, certain dealers, etc? How many sessions per day? per casino/table? per week?

That is a bunch of complicated questions with complicated answers. I like uncrowded conditions most although I have been doing pretty well in crowded conditions lately. I like some dealers for certain reasons and don't like some dealers for other reasons. I don't care to answer on specific sessions per day/week but the decisions are based on longevity. Visiting too frequently can be a problem.

[Three]

Do you employ a formula for CT? gut feeling based on experience?

Casinos have certain choke points. They vary by casino and if you get close without getting the axe you will not get away with as much in the future. I had one place that was really sweaty and has a particularly sweet and juicy game. I pushed the limits too much and didn't get the tap but they made it clear I would if I kept pushing. No discussions , just reading the pit. I was amazed they didn't back me off after an appropriate absence from the casino. I just don't feel I can get away with what I used to before pushing it. Pushing it has definitely cost me money at this store.

[moses]

Casinos have certain choke points.

Good point and excellent term. I think you could add dealers, PB's, even players all have various choke points. I have many.