$800 br

[Nikky_Flash]

You said yourself in one of your previous posts that "TKO is so weird", so why not change your count?

I shouldn've been more clear to say , "TKO is so weird to set up in a simulator / software " my fault ...

And what is the relation of TKO and COB anyway?

TKO is just short for : True Counted , Knock Out , the relationship is COB is a book / COB stands for "The Color of BlackJack", written by Daniel Dravot that came up with and demonstrates an easy way to True Count the Knock out system because of the difficulty prior with the unbalanced counts for TC calculation ... it works well in play and is simple... people just write COB on the forum to save time .

but doesn't TKO combine the disadvantages of both unbalanced and balanced systems?

no .. TKO doesn't change tag values or balance the count at all . it stays unbalanced but is more powerful than straight KO without adding difficulty , actually after reading COB I feel like I understand the whole game better.

I mean, if you can't simulate your play, you are blind and that is a risk by itself, isn't it? Possibly even negatively compensating any excess EV you may get with this count. ...

I'm not going in blind , I'm going in slightly blurry, I know what the SIMS say for KO and COB in general for the ramping I use , I take what COB does and add about triple the index numbers ... in reality , I don't think 20 more index plays adds too much in the short term, so I have a good idea of what my numbers will be. What I'd like to see is COB with the max bet a little higher in the TC than what it is ... like RC at 30- 32 , see how that changes things... but other than that, I trust the author of COB to have tweaked his system to the best it can be , I not going to worry that I don't have an exact simulation in front of me, I've must've read about 6 or 7 blackjack books by great professionals, much of the material involving KO count and COB -and not one author slams any of it as Voodoo, in fact many authors agree that COB/TKO is a powerful system , personal help from great mentors , and because the books have so much information in them that I'm well studied , and prepared . Of course , in the future, when I get to Double Deck games that pay 3/2, I plan on stepping up to a better system, a level 2 perhaps, Ace-side, also easier to sim , and work out the kinks - but I was ready to go out this year and win , I'm not going to switch for shoe games , and I wanted to play this year - and can't switch while I'm playing for real , and for me I think : 6D shoe games aren't worth switching to level 2 , IN MY OPNION - Don't FLAME me for this comment everyone please, this is my opinion------------, I gave it some thought and planning , so I stuck with this for the time-being.

[seriousplayer]

I'm not going in blind , I'm going in slightly blurry, I know what the SIMS say for KO and COB in general for the ramping I use , I take what COB does and add about triple the index numbers ... in reality , I don't think 20 more index plays adds too much in the short term, so I have a good idea of what my numbers will be. What I'd like to see is COB with the max bet a little higher in the TC than what it is ... like RC at 30- 32 , see how that changes things... but other than that, I trust the author of COB to have tweaked his system to the best it can be , I not going to worry that I don't have an exact simulation in front of me.

Although Daniel Dravot's COB technique to True KO is good. There are still improvements and tweaks that could still be made to improve system (i.e tweaking the playing indices in the system to make it more accurate).

[Nikky_Flash]

Although Daniel Dravot's COB technique to True KO is good. There are still improvements and tweaks that could still be made to improve system (i.e tweaking the playing indices in the system to make it more accurate).

He only gives the reader like 10 or 12 plays right?

the only one I noticed that one could argue could be a little later was 15 vs. 10 , but it's such a small small amount it seems for simplicity he puts it with the others? one or two small cards later and it's perfect? ... at rc = 24 I choose to wait until another small card or two to stand .... what others have you noticed? because everything else for index plays seem ok to me , RC = 24 ?

[seriousplayer]

He only gives the reader like 10 or 12 plays right?

the only one I noticed that one could argue could be a little later was 15 vs. 10 , but it's such a small small amount it seems for simplicity he puts it with the others? one or two small cards later and it's perfect? ... at rc = 24 I choose to wait until another small card or two to stand .... what others have you noticed? because everything else for index plays seem ok to me , RC = 24 ?

In card counting the second more important play after insurance is 16 vs 10. Daniel Dravot have the deviation as stand on TC >= +1 if surrender is not available. Looking at the Illustrious 18 deviations and the fab 4 Don have the EV max for that play stand at TC = 0. If we can use a moving running count for true count of 0 instead of TC >= +1 there might be a gain in our SCORE and win rate. Another benefit of using TC = 0 is we now have more information to make the play deviation for 12 vs 4 and double on A8 vs 6 more accurately.

[Nikky_Flash]

Another benefit of using TC = 0 is we now have more information to make the play deviation for 12 vs 4 and double on A8 vs 6 more accurately.

I kinda got ya on the first point , but I don't understand how TC=0 plays , relate to plays being made at 4 ?

[seriousplayer]

I kinda got ya on the first point , but I don't understand how TC=0 plays , relate to plays being made at 4 ?

Any correct indices added will increase SCORE. I am not saying the indices that Daniel Dravot have in COB is wrong. They can just be further improve.

[Nikky_Flash]

Hey 22p21!
I am a total beginner, but I have been studying BJ quite a lot. Please, DON'T play green with a 5k bankroll.

In a reasonably decent SCORE 30 game, you have almost 50% RoR green chipping with a 5k bankroll.

If you consider $800 your section bankroll, you have almost 90% RoR!!!

What you SHOULD do instead I am no one to tell you, but DON'T go green!!


Best of luck!

To the poster: 22playing21 / ( edit -- I didn't know your plan was $10 -$50)


To Skull, What's his "$800 trip/session BR" - ROR- -under both conditions of wonging out / and NOT wonging out , then maybe cut it in half like him bringing $400 I'd like to see that..
red chipping / let's say average 6 deck games, like no surrender/ DAS / Resplit aces- but only get one card / Double Any Card / and he's counting Hi-Lo , only insurance for an index , and say his spread is 5- 50 $ , only hitting 50$ bets at like TC 5 or 6 maybe? He didn't really say what his ramp is , so lets try something like $10 at TC 1-2 , $20 at TC over 2-3 / $30 at TC 3-4 / $40 at over 4-5 , over TC 5 is max at $50
, just wondering what his odds are each visit if he doesn't wong out or anything ... Then would like to see the difference with a wong out approach .. plus if he sees what he's doing it might help him figure a BR and betting strategy with real results...

I like to see people really stop gambling and throwing money away , build up knowledge, and be disiplined to make a plan to win. (I can respect that)

[22playing21]

Thank you for the insight Nikky. Yes i must know when to Wong out and not play to many negative hands, and as to the reference of my spread i would like to keep my max bet at $50 and my minimum at $10 as there are no $5 pits worth playing. I need to be careful wonging and raising bets as i only have a few stores to play at locally and i don't really want to start travelling for BJ until i feel i am a very STRONG player. i continue to play online and deal on my kitchen table with various distractions and work on my count with out making any mistakes .. it seems i now can store the number after i say it without losing it when i re focus on the cards.

[Nikky_Flash]

Thanks Skull , I didn't know he was planning on 10$ -$50 , I never would think that would do good at all , to the OP 22playing 21 , you really should'nt play a 10$ minimum bet game unless you have a 10,000$ Bank roll , the general "rule of thumb" is whatever your BR is , take 1/1000th of that , and that should be your min bet games you play ... unless you bust crazy wongs , and even at your max bet , I would only play 5$ games , ...like Mr. Miagi: "wong in , wong out , wong in , wong out , or else: "squash! just like grape"

[Intermediate]

22p21 - I have a slightly different view. First of all, you're doing the right thing by practicing off line. I wouldn't even attempt to play in a casino until you can execute at least the I18 variations and vary your bet, all while the TV and music is on and you have a friend or significant other chatting at you. I suggest you stay away from the $10 shoe games because with you won't get anywhere with a 1-5 spread playing all. Back counting will reduce your playing time and it sounds like you need the time at the tables to get the real world experience of counting, making index plays, and varying your bet in live casino conditions. Instead, go someplace like Vegas where you can find $5 DD and 6D games and bet $5-$40 on DD and $5-$75 on 6D. To me this is a better way to progress along the learning curve, especially if you have a replenish able BR. The lower minimum games are off strip, and it's not crowded on weekdays.

[22playing21]

Thanks guys, i guess i didnt look deep enough to see how high my ROR would be with a min bet of $10. It is true i still need improve in a few areas. i feel i know the sweet 16 but need practice applying the plays while keeping the count in a live casino. need to not get flustered when it is my turn to make a play and not act obvious as to what i am trying to do staring at the cards thinking of the count and the right play to make because my skills aren't polished. Thanks to all for the advice

Instead, go someplace like Vegas where you can find $5 DD and 6D games and bet $5-$40 on DD and $5-$75 on 6D

depending on how my play progresses i may look into my first vegas trip, i am not ready yet. what is the best time of year to book a trip and maybe what sites have you found the cheapest flights?

[Intermediate]

what is the best time of year to book a trip and maybe what sites have you found the cheapest flights?

IMHO, the best time to get the cheapest flights and rooms are in the middle of the summer. Avoid the weeks of Chinese New Year, Super Bowl, NBA playoffs, March Madness etc, when airfare and hotel rates are higher. Midweek, hotel rates are lower and table minimums are lower. There will be fewer tables open too, but things are generally calmer I think and more conducive to a first timer trying to get some good learning time at the tables. Usually, I stay off strip because I've had enough of the crowds, but if it's your first visit to Vegas, you might want to eat the expense of staying on the strip just for the experience. I also highly recommend renting a car so you can get to all the off strip places where there will be more games at the lower minimums. During the hot summer months, having a car will keep you fresher. Get CBJN and put together a good plan.

[muckz]

@ 22playing21
It's going to be hard on an 800 trip BR, you are going to bust out a lot. There is more variance associated with higher bets, no way of avoiding that. You are likely to go broke in a hot shoe than slowly be dwindled away with 10$ bets. You could still get lucky though, there has been times when I never needed to go past my initial buy in before hitting my time limit or goal. Then again there have been times where I go in very deep only to break even or post a loss after hitting my time limit.

Bottom line, your spread is not good, return is low, risk is high, and time to long run is large.

@ skull / nikky

The general progression for KO is probably: Reko > KO > CoB > TKO
The final step should be using only True counts for playing decisions and betting using (RC - 4*(Decks played))/Decks Remaining

I have found no major problems at all when trying to sim TKO for various reasons. CV even has an unbalanced true count feature. Betting optimally, especially with small bankrolls is very important.

TKO may seem weird, its really not. Some things are a tad bit harder others are easier. The decisions that are hardest or take the most thinking are plays and TC's that are in the extreme positive or negative spectrum. The easiest would actually be near KO's pivot of True 4. Conveniently this is also where we are shelling big bets out and play/bet decisions have larger impact.

Both Hi-lo and TKO are good systems. Both are able to have numerous side counts added to them and can be used for shuffle tracking. The only difference is that with KO you add one step to true count calculation but get the benefit of higher BC.