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  1. 06-03-2014, 07:41 AM #1
    Math Demon
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    Voodoo

    @
    For Mr. Tthree and other mathematically-inclined members:


    Let's assume that there is a hypothetical NFL team, New Orleans Voodoo. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans_VooDoo

    For 20 NFL seasons, through various GMs, coaches and players, this team (using a secret voodoo ritual@ ) had managed a unique feat -- the team NEVER loses two games in a row. They could win 16 consecutive games, but they never lose 2 consecutive games.


    For simplicity, let's further assume:

    1. Each NFL season consists of 16 regular season games, and up to 4 playoff games.
    2. After a win (regular and post-season), the next game has a 50% win probability. After a loss (regular season), the next game has a 100% win probability.
    3. The team's streak continues from regular season to post-season, i.e., if they lose their last regular season game, the chances for the first post-season game win is 100%.
    4. Pre-season results are ignored. The first regular season game has a 50% win probability.
    5. This team's lowest record ever is 8-8 (Duh!) @ In such a case, there is no playoff appearance for them that year.
    6. If this team ends with 10-6 or better, they win the Division, and plays only 3 post-season games (Div, Conf, SB).
    7. If this team ends with 9-7: half-the-time, they go home, half-the-time, they play as Wild Card with 4 post-season games (WC, Div, Conf, SB).


    If the pattern holds ... in any given year, what is the probability that Voodoo will:

    1. Go 8-8 and miss the playoffs?
    2. Go 9-7 and miss the playoffs?
    3. Get in the playoffs as "Wild Card" (50% of 9-7)? And win on that round? Lose that round?
    4. Get in the playoffs as "Div Leader" (10-6 or better record)? And win on that round? Lose that round?
    5. Win their Conference?
    6. Win the SuperBowl?

    7. How do the probabilities #1 to #6 change depending on whether they win or lose their 1st regular season game?



    Thanks,
    MD



    Addendum: Maybe a further simplification could be to lump the wins together ... thereby reducing the 65,536 win-loss matrix into 8 wins plus 256 win-loss matrix?
    @
    @
    Last edited by Math Demon; 06-03-2014 at 01:40 PM.
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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