Hi Norm!
I am trying to understand some portions of the Heat Table in CVBJ. The reason is that I would like to use the thresholds you defined to assign a "heat index" for every entry in my bet ramps (I know they vary by Casino, but I could use an average).
For instance, you assign 0.5 (page 119 of Modern BJ1) for the action of decreasing the bet after a win and you assign 1 to decreasing a bet to less than a third of the previous one. So, this means you add 1.5 degrees to the heat temperature if I win and then decrease to 1/4 my original bet? Or are these numbers multipliers somehow?
You assign 12 for a bet larger than 90 (I assume it's $90), so in my previous example, if I decreased from $400 to $100, would you add 0.5+1+12 = 13.5 to my heat temperature? This calculation seems a bit out of proportion, so I don't think that's how you do it...
Also, the heat doesn't take into account the TC variation, does it? For instance, decreasing a bet after a win in a rising TC would not be as bad for cover as doing it in a falling TC, would it? At least as far as surveillance is concerned, I guess...
I just want to quantitatively evaluate the bet ramps I create somehow, because it's easy to see that certain "betting paths" generate much more heat than others and I want to minimize the possibility of that occurring by tweaking the tables. So I know that from each cell, you have two entire rows of possible follow-ups. Each of these follow-up cells will have a bet size, which will represent a certain bet variation from the previous bet, which will be done following a given TC variation. Also, each TC variation has a given probability, so if I could weight every action by its probability of occurrence and "heat index", I would be able to see where the "hot spots" of my tables are and then try to get rid of them. Makes sense?
Thanks in advance for any help!
Best!
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