Wong out by depth.

[Skull]

Hi!

What does the following settings mean?

1) I wong-out at TC <= -5 if only 1 to 3 decks HAVE BEEN PLAYED;

2) I wong-out at TC <= -5 if only 1 to 3 decks REMAIN TO BE PLAYED.

wongout.jpg


Also, which of the two you think makes more sense?

Thanks in advance!

Best!

[Norm]

You wong out at TC<=-5 in the first three decks. Generally, you are less likely to wong-out near the end of the shoe if you wong-in at the shuffle.

[Skull]

You wong out at TC<=-5 in the first three decks.

Thanks Norm, that's what I thought.

Generally, you are less likely to wong-out near the end of the shoe if you wong-in at the shuffle.

I think it is weird to wong out near the end of the shoe if cover is important to you.
But I don't understand the relationship with the fact that you have entered the game at the shuffle.
Why, in these situations, you are less likely to wong out near the end of the shoe?

Could you please expand on that?

Thanks in advance.

[Norm]

If you wong in at positive count, you may not want to hang out for the shuffle at a quite neg count.

[Skull]

OK Norm, thanks!

[bigplayer]

In advance let me clarify that by Wonging Out I'm referring to actually departing the table for a bathroom break, an extended phone call, or a different table, not just sitting out a few hands near the end of a shoe for whatever reason. Obviously from Don's work it's been shown that when you can immediately move to a fresh shoe the optimum Wong-out point varies based on where you are in the shoe and counter-intuitively is actually positive near the end of the shoe.

From a practical standpoint though table hopping too much can generate heat so if you can only do it a few times you might as well get the most bang for your exits by doing it at milder negatives early in the shoe and deeper negatives late in the shoe. If you have only a minor negative count near the end of the shoe you'd just as well drop your bet down and grind your way through (or if the count suddenly tanks on the last round or two use that opportunity to just quickly check your messages and let the other players finish out the shoe to change the luck/flow/whatever.

You can do this automatically by using the Running Count for Wonging out rather than True Counts. The TC tends to stay the same, but the RC is always moving back towards zero (on average) as the shoe depletes so any negative RC you choose will be more likely to occur early in the shoe rather than later in the shoe. This means you get more bang for your departure/exit buck because you'll be avoiding unnecessary exposure for extended numbers of hands early in the shoe with mild negative counts and if you happen to exceed the RC departure point late in the shoe you will be avoiding big disadvantages. For example, if you use -7 High-Low for a RC departure index this will skip the same number of negative count hands (about 22%) as departing at a TC of -1.5 but the hands you do skip are weighted towards getting you off the table more quickly early in the shoe than late in the shoe where you have the choice to grind it out or sit it out without actually changing tables. I typically use -14RC Zen as a RC Wongout point which skips the same percentage of hands as exiting at -3.5TC Zen (15.4% Skipped, 84.6% Played).

[Skull]

Fantastic explanation Bigplayer! Thanks a lot!

I must read with enhanced care the "optimal departure point" section of BJA2, I am afraid I had forgotten about it...

A quick run here gave me around 28% of hands skipped using RC -7 for High-Low Ill18Fab4 and if I use RC -10 I get around 15% skipped, which is similar to what you get with -14RC Zen.

I think this idea of using RC is great for what I feel like doing in actual play. A TC of -2 after the first deck is more than enough to make me upset and want to wong-out.

However, by the end of the shoe I think it is really bad for cover purposes to wong-out, but a TC of -5 is bad enough to make me desperately want to pee

So, using RC instead of TC gives me that flexibility.

Thanks a lot!

Best!

[DSchles]

"I must read with enhanced care the "optimal departure point" section of BJA2, I am afraid I had forgotten about it..."

Not in BJA2. Only in BJA3.

Don

[Skull]

Hey Don!

Is Part 1 of Chapter 12 in BJA2 deprecated?

Best!

[Three]

Not in BJA2. Only in BJA3.

Time to buy the next edition Skull.

[DSchles]

Part 1 was just the beginning of the study. There is MUCH more to it.

Don

[bigplayer]

One trick is to use the -7 RC Wongout for h17 games and for games with less than stellar penetration or use the -10 Wongout for well cut s17 games or game of otherwise exceptional quality. Table Exits (White Rabbit) is hugely important, but especially so with h17 games.

[Skull]

Time to buy the next edition Skull.

I know, I know, "so much to learn in so little time"....

Part 1 was just the beginning of the study. There is MUCH more to it. Don

OK, OK, I will use the 1-click ordering in Amazon, so that there is no turning back this time
BJA3 is just the tip of the iceberg... but I promise it is THE tip Don

One trick is to use the -7 RC Wongout for h17 games and for games with less than stellar penetration or use the -10 Wongout for well cut s17 games or game of otherwise exceptional quality. Table Exits (White Rabbit) is hugely important, but especially so with h17 games.

My low limits introductory trip will definitely be restricted to H17 games, so thanks for the advise.
But now I have to re-run ALL the simulations since your last post

Enough of emoticons...

Best to all!