Craps Techniques

[Blitzkrieg]

But, a large variance relative to the initial bet. I've often used craps as cover. But, making a 10x bet, even though it has no neg EV, could seriously dilute your overall EV and SCORE. Why would an AP make a large bet with zero EV? And I don't want to hear about 100x odds. Frankly, you're better off making a stupid bet if the eye or PB can see.

The nice thing about a crowded craps table is that the eye and PBs pay little attention to the players.

Craps is an incredibly difficult game to deal. I actually have great respect for the dealers. I have made esoteric bets not on the table, told dealers to make different bets on and off on the same roll, at full tables with players making bets all over the table -- and have seen fewer errors than at Blackjack tables.

Craps can be good cover because, at a crowded table, it's difficult for the pit or eye to even see if you are betting. You can bet pass and have a tiny impact on win rate given the time involved. But, if you are being watched, it's even better. The point of making weird bets, like hop-bets or world bets, is that they aren't even on the table and make you look like a seriously degenerate gambler.

If a player lost enough of those 10X bet it sure isn't going to feel nice. But why would a BJ player make a max bet in BJ when the count is super high to possibly lose? Maybe consecutively. BJ has a history as it's dealt but that doesn't mean a craps shooter can't come right back to hit the same number consecutively. When a player makes an odds bet it's either going to win or lose until the bet is resolved. Depending on bankroll, shooting ability, and depending if the shooter can overcome the house edge on the particular number should be a factor in how much odds go behind the line. If a player won 4 pass line bets in a row without odds with a shooter hitting four point numbers in a row would you say that he missed out on EV?

Craps is a hard game to keep up with if a player is a novice. The dealers have a set way of placing and paying off the bets in order to keep track of the game and to keep the game running smoothly. You would be surprised how many times I have to correct a dealer at the table, or have to explain the rules to them because some of them are green. I had to correct a dealer a little over a week ago.

Most of the casinos craps layouts that I have seen have the hop bet diagram in the middle of the table, even the world bet. From my experience casinos that do not have the hop bet diagram in the middle of the table will not let you hop a point number or the 7's, but they will let you hop bet a 2, 3, 11, or 12 which is essentially a hop bet in itself because it's a one roll bet on the next roll. I've tried arguing this point to some hardheaded boxmen. Some casinos that do not have the world bet will still book the bet even if there isn't a diagram for it on the table.

[Three]

Now if a player placed betted $30 on either the 6 or 8 and that hit... the dealer would pay the player a total of $35, not $30.

Thanks for catching the typo. If you look at the series I was showing when the odds bet pays the same as a direct bet placed on each point. Either nobody else read my post on they could tell that was true.

If the players won 2/3 or 66.67 % of the come out decisions the casino would probably go broke. Correct me if I am wrong. However you are a favorite coming out to establish a new point number because their are 8 ways to win on the Pass Line (six 7's and two 11's) vs. 4 ways to lose (2, 12, 1:2, 2:1 ) on the come out roll so that makes the shooter a 2 to 1 favorite, and an underdog if a player is betting the Don't Pass Line. That's why the casino will let a player pick up his/her Don't pass line bet after the point is established because after that point, the house knows they have a slight edge.

I will correct you. Winning 2 and losing one is winning 2 out of 3 or about 66.7% of the come out decisions. The net gain of winning 2 out of 3 is 33.3% of you bet as you must subtract the losses from the wins. I am guessing the difference between the two is what is causing confusion. If you read my post I clearly stated the former.

"If you are taking less odds depending on the point you may be better off placing or buying the bet. Remember a shooter must roll a number twice to win it on the line but only once to win it when you place or buy it."

That doesn't sound logical because a player would have to risk more money for a place bet vs. making an odds bet even if it was a small amount. As far as buying numbers... if the shooter has the ability to hit their number before rolling a 7, but if the shooter decided to "buy" his point number that would be absurd. Why not just take the free odds? The player would have to pay the vig on a win.

You are assuming the player has a pass or come bet up to take odds. Say you arrive at the craps table and the point is 5. The dealer tells you the shooter is rolling lots of 4's. You put up a $30 buy bet on the 4 vig paid only after a win. Your buddy puts out a come bet hoping to get the point to be a 4 so he can take free odds at the 2x odds either because that is all the $10 table has or all he is comfortable with. You both put up $30 on the 4 when he gets the point he wants. You will get paid $59 and he will get paid $50 when you win a point 4 but for him to win you win twice. Once when his come bet goes up on the 4 and again when he wins his come bet. So he wins $50 while you win $118. But if a 7 is rolled before a4 you lose $30 and he wins 10. The other scenario that only affects your friend is the other comeout rolls which are 2, 3, 11 and 12. He losses 2/3rds of those rolls. He may also get put on a number he doesn't want but we will ignore that and just assume he gets the 4 as a point so we can look at the buy bet. We will have both players working the comeout so as to keep it simple. The buy bet at risk on the comeout if the shooter rolls his point 5 as well as the odds bet. We ignore the other points to get our frequencies for a comeout cycle of 21 and a post comeout cycle of 9. We will follow the series until both players has had at least 1 decision.

1) 2, 3, 11 and 12 (frequency 1/6): You lose nothing , on average your buddy losses $3.33 (win 2 times and lose 4 times for a net lose of 33.3%).
2) Shooter rolls one 4 before the 7 (2/9 frequency if we ignore the above comeout decisions): You win $29 ($59-$30) your buddy loses $30.
3) Shooter rolls 2 4's before 7 (1/9 frequency if we ignore the comeout decisions as above): You win $118 and your buddy wins $50.
4) Shooter rolls 0 4's before 7 (2/3 frequency): You lose $30 and your buddy wins $10 (minus $10 for all the other points his come bets ended up on)

There is recursion for the negative comeout group (2,3,11,12) comeout decisions and that puts a further drag on your buddies results.

So ignoring the comeout and looking at the rolls that affect both players first. That is scenarios 2-4. These scenarios frequency add to 1 and scenario 1 is a recursive drag on the come betting buddy but has no affect on you.
Scenario 2: You win $29*(2/9) = $6.44, your buddy losses $30*(2/9) = -$6.67
Scenario 3: You win $118*(1/9) = $13.11, your buddy wins $50*(1/9) = $5.55
Scenario 4: You lose $30*(2/3) = -$20, your buddy wins $10 minus the number of other points he had $10 go up on to get the point 4 *(2/3) = $6.67 - $6.67*N where N is the number of points that were rolled before you got the 4. The odds of getting the 4 are 3/24 or 1/8 so this will work out to be a negative number on average even with adding the number of hit point that win $10 but still lose $10. Of course if the point is hit 3 times it becomes a net winner of $10 rather than a push for 2 times and a lose for 1 time (no repeat).

So you loss $0.45 through the cycle and your buddy losses $1.12 minus a hard to predict drag from other point and the recursive drag from the non 7 comeout decisions through the cycle That is subtracted from every outcome. If no other points are rolled (1/8th of the time) your buddy has the better deal since the other point affect is not a drag of funds but if another number is rolled before the 4 (7/8ths of the time) you have the better deal.

[Three]

Depending on bankroll, shooting ability, and depending if the shooter can overcome the house edge on the particular number should be a factor in how much odds go behind the line.

When you start talking about successful dice control the probabilities are all different and unknown. We can't really have a math based discussion in that case.

If a player won 4 pass line bets in a row without odds with a shooter hitting four point numbers in a row would you say that he missed out on EV?

Without dice control his EV is 0 so I would say he never misses out or creates EV by placing odds bets. If dice control has a positive affect or a negative affect you can talk about EV lost or gained by making an odds bet. I don't think Norm is going to allow that stipulation when he is engaged in a serious conversation.

Most of the casinos craps layouts that I have seen have the hop bet diagram in the middle of the table, even the world bet. From my experience casinos that do not have the hop bet diagram in the middle of the table will not let you hop a point number or the 7's, but they will let you hop bet a 2, 3, 11, or 12 which is essentially a hop bet in itself because it's a one roll bet on the next roll. I've tried arguing this point to some hardheaded boxmen.

The boxman can't book the bet, you need to get the floor involved. Of course that use of the word can't is that he is not allowed to. That really doesn't mean can't but if he does his job right he can't.

[Blitzkrieg]

You are assuming the player has a pass or come bet up to take odds. Say you arrive at the craps table and the point is 5. The dealer tells you the shooter is rolling lots of 4's. You put up a $30 buy bet on the 4 vig paid only after a win. Your buddy puts out a come bet hoping to get the point to be a 4 so he can take free odds at the 2x odds either because that is all the $10 table has or all he is comfortable with. You both put up $30 on the 4 when he gets the point he wants. You will get paid $59 and he will get paid $50 when you win a point 4 but for him to win you win twice. Once when his come bet goes up on the 4 and again when he wins his come bet. So he wins $50 while you win $118. But if a 7 is rolled before a4 you lose $30 and he wins 10. The other scenario that only affects your friend is the other comeout rolls which are 2, 3, 11 and 12. He losses 2/3rds of those rolls. He may also get put on a number he doesn't want but we will ignore that and just assume he gets the 4 as a point so we can look at the buy bet. We will have both players working the comeout so as to keep it simple. The buy bet at risk on the comeout if the shooter rolls his point 5 as well as the odds bet. We ignore the other points to get our frequencies for a comeout cycle of 21 and a post comeout cycle of 9. We will follow the series until both players has had at least 1 decision.

1) 2, 3, 11 and 12 (frequency 1/6): You lose nothing , on average your buddy losses $3.33 (win 2 times and lose 4 times for a net lose of 33.3%).
2) Shooter rolls one 4 before the 7 (2/9 frequency if we ignore the above comeout decisions): You win $29 ($59-$30) your buddy loses $30.
3) Shooter rolls 2 4's before 7 (1/9 frequency if we ignore the comeout decisions as above): You win $118 and your buddy wins $50.
4) Shooter rolls 0 4's before 7 (2/3 frequency): You lose $30 and your buddy wins $10 (minus $10 for all the other points his come bets ended up on)

There is recursion for the negative comeout group (2,3,11,12) comeout decisions and that puts a further drag on your buddies results.

So ignoring the comeout and looking at the rolls that affect both players first. That is scenarios 2-4. These scenarios frequency add to 1 and scenario 1 is a recursive drag on the come betting buddy but has no affect on you.
Scenario 2: You win $29*(2/9) = $6.44, your buddy losses $30*(2/9) = -$6.67
Scenario 3: You win $118*(1/9) = $13.11, your buddy wins $50*(1/9) = $5.55
Scenario 4: You lose $30*(2/3) = -$20, your buddy wins $10 minus the number of other points he had $10 go up on to get the point 4 *(2/3) = $6.67 - $6.67*N where N is the number of points that were rolled before you got the 4. The odds of getting the 4 are 3/24 or 1/8 so this will work out to be a negative number on average even with adding the number of hit point that win $10 but still lose $10. Of course if the point is hit 3 times it becomes a net winner of $10 rather than a push for 2 times and a lose for 1 time (no repeat).

So you loss $0.45 through the cycle and your buddy losses $1.12 minus a hard to predict drag from other point and the recursive drag from the non 7 comeout decisions through the cycle That is subtracted from every outcome. If no other points are rolled (1/8th of the time) your buddy has the better deal since the other point affect is not a drag of funds but if another number is rolled before the 4 (7/8ths of the time) you have the better deal.

In your response I was not assuming that a player was taking odds on a come bet. I was referring to a pass line bet with odds compared to a simply place betting a point or buying the bet outright. In the above so what if player A wants to buy a $30 4 vs. player B who wants to toss a $10 in the come bet and throw $20 in odds if a 4 is thrown. I already know what the outcome will be if a 4 is thrown back-to-back if 2 bets from different players go up at the same time in that manner. But like you mentioned if the 7 gets thrown before the 4, the player buying the 4 is going to get burned while Player B wins a $10 come bet.

You really need to clarify the bottom 1/3 of your first paragraph, which point number are you talking about, 4 or 5? The player buying the 4, is he going to continue to place $30 buy bets on the 4 if a 7 keeps coming out on the come out? Why would a buy bet on the 4 be at risk if the shooter rolls his point of 5? Coming out you don't want to see a 7 roll if your working the buy on the 4. If a player had a $10 come bet on the 4 with $20 odds and was working that bet on the come out roll he would just lose the $10 unless he had $10 on the Pass line, where it would be a break even for that player and $20 in odds returned whereas the player buying the 4 for $30 working on the come out roll would be at a $30 loss.

[Blitzkrieg]

[QUOTE=Tthree;134589]

Without dice control his EV is 0 so I would say he never misses out or creates EV by placing odds bets. If dice control has a positive affect or a negative affect you can talk about EV lost or gained by making an odds bet. I don't think Norm is going to allow that stipulation when he is engaged in a serious conversation.


QUOTE]

And Norm is talking about making bad bets in a game that can clearly be beaten for the sake cover? Get real! The least he could do is make some of the better bets in the game for a guy who is so concerned about the math of a game(s). Norm can keep making those world bets and hop bets for cover, it'll just put more gray hair on his head quicker than my posts can.

[Three]

In your response I was not assuming that a player was taking odds on a come bet. I was referring to a pass line bet with odds compared to a simply place betting a point or buying the bet outright. In the above so what if player A wants to buy a $30 4 vs. player B who wants to toss a $10 in the come bet and throw $20 in odds if a 4 is thrown. I already know what the outcome will be if a 4 is thrown back-to-back if 2 bets from different players go up at the same time in that manner. But like you mentioned if the 7 gets thrown before the 4, the player buying the 4 is going to get burned while Player B wins a $10 come bet.

OK so the buy bet works the come out it is the same thing.

You really need to clarify the bottom 1/3 of your first paragraph, which point number are you talking about, 4 or 5? The player buying the 4, is he going to continue to place $30 buy bets on the 4 if a 7 keeps coming out on the come out? Why would a buy bet on the 4 be at risk if the shooter rolls his point of 5?

I was trying to keep the problem from getting too complicated. They were both working the comeout after the shooter makes his point (of 5) rather than have the come bet the only bet working the come out. If the buddy specifies he is working on the comeout he loses his odds bet as well. He doesn't get it back and we are trying to compare 1 bet on the 4 not a series of bets after the bet goes up on the 4. A come bettor will likely have to make several come bets to get on the desired point of 4 the buy bettor just places the buy bet.

[Three]

And Norm is talking about making bad bets in a game that can clearly be beaten for the sake cover? Get real! The least he could do is make some of the better bets in the game for a guy who is so concerned about the math of a game(s). Norm can keep making those world bets and hop bets for cover, it'll just put more gray hair on his head quicker than my posts can.

Norm was talking about playing a little craps to sell a degenerate gambler cover. Playing line bets with full odds is going to do the opposite. On top of defeating the purpose of playing craps for cover it is going to give very wild swings without changing your EV. If you want to play the degenerate gambler at the craps table throw some small money at the bets degenerates make, don't play like a player trying to reduce the house edge as much as possible by the bets he makes. You will just reinforce the AP look that you are playing craps to try to destroy. Perhaps you missed that he was playing craps for cover. If your cover is a degenerate gambler playing craps like an AP would isn't going to help anything except confirm you are an AP.

I have found there are places where other games for cover works but most places I don't think it does.

[Blitzkrieg]

OK so the buy bet works the come out it is the same thing.


I was trying to keep the problem from getting too complicated. They were both working the comeout after the shooter makes his point (of 5) rather than have the come bet the only bet working the come out. If the buddy specifies he is working on the comeout he loses his odds bet as well. He doesn't get it back and we are trying to compare 1 bet on the 4 not a series of bets after the bet goes up on the 4. A come bettor will likely have to make several come bets to get on the desired point of 4 the buy bettor just places the buy bet.

Anyone can work a buy bet or a place bet on the come out roll but they will be taking an unnecessary risk. I don't think it would be the best strategy but a player can do as they please. Even if a come better had 1 or 2 come bets up and decided to work those bets on a come out roll that is unnecessary risk since his flat bets are already at risk if a 7 rolls. In the scenario you have constructed it's the first to the punch on the 4 which can have adverse results and like I mentioned a player will have more at risk by just putting the buy bet up on the 4.

If a BJ player thinks in their mind that they have to make high percentage bets that have a high house edge in a game other than BJ, than their cover was probably blown on the BJ table. If casino surveillance is already watching a BJ player of suspicion of card counting by examining their play they are not going to be fooling anyone by playing a different game in my opinion. If craps is a fall back game for a BJ player for the purpose of cover then the player might as well make the best bets at the game if the player thinks they are going to get the tap on the shoulder. Playing a game for cover to appease the suspicion of paranoia is not in my playbook. I see that as cutting into profit potential.

[Three]

The scenario was constructed simply to make an even comparison. Apparently that exercise was not something you wanted to engage in. For a controlled dice "expert" You don't seem to grasp the advantage of being able to go straight up on a number rather than needing to roll it twice to win. I used to play with both and no surprise the place bettors usually won a lot more than the ones simply betting the pass and come for these reasons and then a comeout 7 would wipe out all their come bets and they would have to start all over with no bets while the place bettors were still winning. The place bettors wins were over double the wins for the pass/come bettors. When thing s went bad their losses were only a little larger.The odds calculated for random betting doesn't apply to successful DC. Some bets become advantage bets while others become a higher disadvantage.

[Blitzkrieg]

Whether a person wants to use place bets or come bets with odds it makes no difference how "they" bet their own chips. I know what type of comparison your trying to make but a player can still get nailed to the wall place betting, you should know that can happen. What your calling an "advantage" can turn into a nightmare whether the dice are in the hands of an experienced dice controller or a random roller. You can lose more and faster by place vs. come betting and of course you should know that is possible also. I'm sure you can think of a scenario but I can give you one if need be. When your talking about the place bettors wins your talking about short-term, that is not long-term. That's like saying, "I bet in the Field for two hours and doubled my money." Big deal.

Most of all I wanted give Seriousplayer a clue as to which were the best bets in the game of craps and that there is a house edge and a monetary edge that the casino has over the player; Pass line with odds, Don't Pass with odds, place bet the 6 & 8, come betting, don't come bets, and he can do his own looking into as far as reducing the house edge on 4,5,9,10 thru betting.

If you want to take me on at craps just let me know.
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