Does 0% ROR of a non-replenishable bankroll assuming perfect play actually mean I'll never bust? For example of $10,000 bankroll, CVCX shows there's a chance to be down 9100 the worst. Say I kept playing at 9100 down, it would be impossible to bust at that point continuing perfect play?
In rounding numbers, if the field allows for 1 decimal digit 0% means less than .05%. If it is 2 decimal digits 0% means less than 0.005%. If you resize your bets with your fluctuating BR your bets will be less than 10% of the initial bets at $900 left of a $10K BR. Your risk is still the same but your EV has tanked.
Last edited by Three; 05-08-2014 at 04:25 AM.
Risk of ruin assumes no resizing at that given bankroll at that specific moment in time. Once you play your first session and have a result your risk of ruin changes because you now have new information. Lose $9,100 of a $10,000 bankroll and you're risk of ruin is based on having a $900 bankroll, not a $10,000 bankroll.
Last edited by bigplayer; 05-07-2014 at 10:01 PM.
So there is never a way to know your long term ROR? It's kind of misleading then. The way I saw it was that if I had a 10, 000 bankroll and played perfectly and had a 1% ROR that as long as I played the way I had it simmed and no errors that I would have a 99% chance of not going bust.Originally Posted by bigplayer
What is the point of having ROR calculated then in CVCX if it is always changing, kind of pointless to be honest
Last edited by ZenKinG; 05-08-2014 at 08:50 AM.
These 2 statements aren't mutually exclusive. You had a set RoR when you started, as you say 1%. You can calculate your current RoR given your new BR at any time. That 1% that goes bust from the beginning has to go through your current BR to go bust if your BR has shrunk. Your new RoR tells you the chances that you are in that 1% that would go bust from those starting with your initial BR and other parameters input into the sim.
The point of calculating RoR is to properly manage your BR as you go forward. Your point shows the importance of recalculating RoR after large losses to determine at what point you need to take what most see as extreme step, drawdown (resizing down your bets to protect your BR at the expense of EV). It will make regaining your losses take longer if your approach is unchanged except for your bet sizes. It will also mean you are less likely to go bust than you were before the drawdown which allows you a better chance to recover in the long run and avoid your probable fate as being part of that 1%.
Last edited by Three; 05-08-2014 at 09:10 AM.
CVCX is like a snapshot given the facts at that moment. You cannot assume that you still are playing to a $10,000 bankroll once you've lost half of it. That is illogical. You purchase CVCX so that you can frequently re-run your risk of ruin figures as your bankroll goes up and down. Most teams/players plan ahead before they start playing for draw downs by knowing at what point they will tell everyone to resize or ask investors for more capital (a margin call). For our group we would resize when we lost 1/3 of the bank and then size back up only after we'd recovered 1/2 of the loss, we'd resize again after we lost 1/2 of the original bank and not resize back up until we'd recovered 1/2 of the loss and then only resize to 3/4 stakes.
Last edited by bigplayer; 05-08-2014 at 12:26 PM.
Glad I asked because yesterday I thought it was just for selecting a bankroll and playing it all with those bet sizes until nothings left, then adding to the bankroll and continuing with the spread.
I realize now these are totally independent of each other, in case I lost 9100 of a 10000 bankroll that doesn't mean I'm going to turn it around. I'd resize bets and continue.
Last edited by code red; 05-08-2014 at 03:35 PM.
It's like saying the chance of flipping a coin 5 times heads in a row is 1/32 (ie: ROR=1%). After the first flip (being heads), you now have a 1/16 chance to get 5 heads in a row (ie: ROR != 1%). After a total of 4 flips all being heads, you now have a 1/2 chance of flipping 5 heads. Earlier you calculated the chance of 5 heads to be 1/32. In the same way, earlier (with a $10k roll) you calculated a 1% ROR. But now, you have a 1/2 chance of flipping 5 heads in a row (since the first 4 have been heads), and your ROR is no longer 1%, more like 80%+ on your $1k roll.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks