Positive Count while losing with Crap Cards (7/10) while others getting good hands.

[KoolAid90]

Can anyone explain what happened the first night? Can anyone give me any advice on what I should have done or do?

Story:

Personal Background [beginner card counter, soaking up everything like a sponge and still doing naked handstands and jumping jacks to increase my chances of winning through advantage play (it's a joke to illustrate that I am listening and filtering everything no matter how ridiculous it sounds to help improve my play)]

Trip Background: I went to a Casino town for two nights where I played tables with 6 deck, no surrender, etc (best rules in the area of what I saw). First night I went to Casino A and second night I went to Casino B.

Some conditions for the story:
1) This only deals with when the count was moderately positive.
2) I don't think there was any cheating going on.
3) I have a relatively good memory.
4) I rarely drink. I have drank 3 times in the past two years.
5) I reviewed my plays and I played for the most part correctly (playing hands, indices, betting).
6) Mostly 4 or more players at table with 6 deck, no surrender, etc.

1. First Night
First night was at Casino A. I spread my bet accordingly and of course raised and lowered my bet according to the count. I kept losing hands regardless of the count high or low (the rest is about losing hands on high counts). I could not figure out why I kept losing and still cannot figure out why.

What I did notice was that when I started to keep track and trying to figure out why I was losing, something peaked my interest. I would lose around 7/10 hands (positive count) and never in the three hours of playing got a single blackjack. I reviewed my plays, indices, and betting, and I still to this day cannot figure out why I lost for so long. What I also noticed (and the point of this post) that during high counts, people around the table were for the most part winning or losing gradually with good hands while I continually had crap hands. I noticed that when the count was high, I very frequently received 14s, 15s, and some 16s. The people playing around me on these high counts would be getting at least 19s and 20s and a few blackjacks.

What I observed pretty much went like this: first base first card got a 10, second player first card a 10, my first card is an 8, fourth player got a 10, and it continued. Then dealing to first base again, first base second card is 9 (total 19), second base second card is 10 (total 20), my second card is 6 (total 14), etc. This continued for the duration of the whole three hours with few good hands. Essentially it became me playing to the best of my ability (playing the hands correctly, betting, indices, etc.) while also heavily hoping that the dealer would bust (which was seemingly the only way I could win when playing the hands and with indices). I kept playing thinking that if I played my hands and betting correctly, I would eventually start winning a little. During the three hours, I switched tables multiple times and the same thing happened over and over again. I rarely got a better hand than 18 as compared to the other players around the table. I never knew I could get so many bad hands consistently and I never knew I could get so many bad hands when the count was high while others would be getting good cards while I was getting crap cards.

Eventually, raising my bets accordingly with the high counts but getting crap cards (even playing the hands correctly with indices) destroyed my available funds for the trip as I kept losing the hands. That night I was really down mentally and chips. I quit after three hours because I was afraid I would lose everything if I continued to play.

2. Second Night
Second Night was at Casino B. At the beginning, it was the same story, continually getting 14s, 15s, and 16s. Then after the first shuffle of six deck, it changed. I was still losing steadily but not with me getting crap cards 7 out of 10 hands. Instead I felt like I was losing because of variance with everyone losing and winning playing hands. I bet accordingly and although I lost, it was not solely on crap cards and 7 out of 10 losing hands while everyone else seemed to get good cards on high counts as in the previous casino.

3. Conclusion
Little to say, I went back to the hotel room and now back at my home to review my plays of both nights but looking a lot on the first night. It seems to be that I played correctly for the most part in betting and how to play hands with the indices etc.

I just can't explain why I kept getting crap cards on the first night which seemed like there was a personal thunderstorm over my head while there were sunny blue skies on the others.
Can anyone explain why I had such a bad run and getting crap cards for the large majority of the first night? Can anyone also give some advice on how to deal with this stuff? Was it merely a bad run or is there something else involved here that I am not seeing? Can someone also give me any advice of table positions (first base is better than third base)?

Thanks for the help.

[ohbehave]

When the count is positive the players as a whole have an advantage but it does not necessarily mean you in particular will get winning hands. Even possible that no one at the table wins.

Also, its the BJs and double down hands that get the money. If you aren't getting those hands in any particular session you will probably see your money slipping away.

There's no weird voodoo going on. There are only so many of each card in the shoe and everyone including the dealer has a similar chance of getting any combination. I'll add that there are more combinations of crap hands than winning hands in the shoe so you will always see more crap hands.

[KoolAid90]

When the count is positive the players as a whole have an advantage but it does not necessarily mean you in particular will get winning hands. Even possible that no one at the table wins.

Also, its the BJs and double down hands that get the money. If you aren't getting those hands in any particular session you will probably see your money slipping away.

There's no weird voodoo going on. There are only so many of each card in the shoe and everyone including the dealer has a similar chance of getting any combination. I'll add that there are more combinations of crap hands than winning hands in the shoe so you will always see more crap hands.

Oh I totally understand that I am not going to always get a good hand when the count is positive and that everyone at the table can get bad hands from a positive count, but my discrepancy in this case is that I continually received bad hands and never received a blackjack for three hours while others at the table were seemingly getting better hands than I and received at least one blackjack.

Thanks for the advice about the BJs and double downs that get the money. Do you know about splits being that essential in getting the money?

[Shoofly]

You're overthinking this. You are concerning yourself with what the player at first base was dealt, then the second player and the fourth. Other than counting their cards, the cards the other players are dealt are of no particular interest to you. You are dealing with simple variance. I know it seems like the dealer is getting 20's and 21's on every hand, and when you double, you get 2's and 3's, and when you hit a stiff you get a 10, but it all evens out in time. Be patient. There will be days when things are going your way. Remember, you are dealing with a very slight advantage. Anything can happen in the short run.

[Shoofly]

We cross posted. I'm not sure what you mean about the splits being essential. Again, don't overthink this. If the BS or index says split, then split. You don't have to think about it.

[Three]

This will happen a lot. Playing at a crowded table you run a higher risk of others getting the good cards that are expected when they do come out. You will also get fewer bets in per opportunity. Late surrender also would have likely saved you quite a bit. Regardless if you don't get any blackjacks that is a big handicap. It is no surprise from just that fact that you weren't in the green. Playing 2 hands can help but if the dealer hits to 21 every time you will just lose more. Don't think you won't have big counts were the dealer won't hit out every time. Or every time you have a made hand the dealer hits out and every time you bust the dealer busts. You play long enough you will see it all. You certainly will take major beatings from time to time. If you are playing good games like S17 or H17 with LS or S17 with LS you are halfway there. Now you just need to figure out when the tables aren't crowded, when and where to get great penetration and if you are BR challenged when the lowest limits are available. Fortunately the lowest limits are usually at uncrowded times which allows you to catch two of the 3 things that you are hoping to find at any rule set. Unless you are backcounting crowds are bad. Deep pen is something to search for but not worth as much if the table is crowded. Often the uncrowded table with slightly worse pen is a better choice. You had the same chance of getting the hands that others got so if the high cards were coming out as expected there is no evidence you were making mistakes even if you didn't get them.

The big mistake you have to watch is being afraid to make the big bets when called for and not over betting your BR. The other mistake is not knowing how to properly manage risk to your BR. At least as important as being able to count is understanding what risk you are taking and limiting it to what is wise given your BR. If you haven't much of a BR, if you don't wait until your BR is bigger to play, you will have no choice but to play at very high risk of losing everything. Most counters that fail, and they are many, fail not because they couldn't count but because they didn't understand how to manage the risk in the game.

[ZenKinG]

V a r i a n c e .

You're also a good exanple of someone who plays before they're actually ready and that understands the AP game thoroughly. I was a victim of that as well when I first started and this is the exact reason why casinos love the whole introduction of card counting to the blackjack world, because they know many new counters don't have the knowledge to understand why they're losing or the effort and perseverance to grind it out and take money from the casino.

Simply many new players think "Oh, well I can count, now its over for the casino, this is going to be easy money." And then when they finally lose or a small losing streak they give up and think counting doesn't work and start asking questions as if they're supposed to be winning every trip. From your post it's clear you think counting will allow you to win more hands than lose, which is totally incorrect. You will lose more hands than you will win and the way you will make money is from getting more blackjacks, winning more double downs, winning more split opportunities, winning more insurance bets, and the *dealer busting more*(*controversial from recent sims on here*)

So to sum it up, what happened to you is perfectly normal, and I suggest you study up a little more because it seems you don't quite understand what counting truly is about.

Good luck

[genini1]

You will lose when counting cards. This is a cold, hard, immutable fact about blackjack that often gets overlooked amidst the endless index revision, table scouting, and practice.

However you will also win. You will still lose more often than you win, but if everything is done correctly you will net more in the long run. In the short run seeing nights like yours is common. Losing for 3, 4, 5 10 hours at a stretch is something you have to get used to. If it bothers you then you will want to pick a different hobby. At some point you will lose a lot and you will lose for a long time. For weeks or months on end you will lose and you'll question everything you know and everything you do. If you don't have the wherewithal to stick it out then get out now.

Check out some of KJs posts from a year ago. He is a successful card counter who makes a living off of it. Last year he dropped 6 figures in the first quarter of the year. He stuck it out and rebounded and posted a profit, but I don't think a lot of people would have really been able to do what he did. Read through this forum, practice, read a few books, practice, and then practice some more.

[hitA7]

Prepare yourself. This is only the beginning. You gotta be able to stomach more than that to be in this game...MUCH more than that. I say it like that, only because I too have had to learn the bitterness of losing my ass when the shoe is "gold".

Hang in there. Get your hours in. Numbers will work out. Now, if you think you have a perfect game but in fact you don't, that's a different story.

[ohbehave]

Do you know about splits being that essential in getting the money?

Not in the same way as BJs and doubles. As a group splits are a small loser but lose less than not splitting. Splits are also less frequent so they don't impact your results as much.

[DSchles]

Just one comment. Assuming, with others at the table, that you got about 80 hands per hour, you played about 240 hands in Casino A over three hours. You should have received about 11 or 12 blackjacks. It isn't even remotely possible that you received none. The probability is about one in 1.2 million. So, there are a couple of possibilities: 1) you have selective memory and chose to say you got no blackjacks when, in fact, you got very few, or b) you're simply misrepresenting the truth. I'm ruling out a third possibility that you were cheated, because, well, others got naturals, and it's just about impossible to deal from a shoe such that just one person at the table never gets a blackjack!

Don

[Ouchez]

Kool aid,

The tough truth is that straight counting is a tough road, and there are far better ways to make money. Now if you are going to play as an AP you need to find fine games, LS is very essential, as well as S-17, and other things...tables not crowded.....you need to be as a world class athlete, in fine shape mentally and physically..........................you also need to develop STing skillz as well as side counts in 2 and 4 deck games, and you need to be as a BJ machine. Sounds daunting, and it is. If you live in V-Gas, you have a great running start with a wide variety of games to hit and move on......HCing,,, big money there, you can always move in that direction,,but alot of travel and network required. It is not easy, and most drop out and or fade away, no shame in that, it is really rather inevitable.

O

[Three]

Just one comment. Assuming, with others at the table, that you got about 80 hands per hour, you played about 240 hands in Casino A over three hours. You should have received about 11 or 12 blackjacks. It isn't even remotely possible that you received none. The probability is about one in 1.2 million.

It is not the kind of thing I keep track of but I am sure I have gone 3 hours without a blackjack even while playing 2 hands. You see extremely rare events constantly in a casino. The games may have been substantially slower than 80 hands/hour. Some ploppies are agonizingly slow players.