very curious simulations

[mhb]

I have access to an excellent dd game from
an indian casino.
but having been offered some enticing comps to go
to las vegas I have been advised to play 6 d for
purposes of sustainability per the comps.
however the following simulations seem to indicate
that the 6 d I will play is unacceptable.
please advise.

6d
3 players
h17
das
double on 9, 10, 11
split to 4 hands
no resplit aces
no surrender
75% penetration
min bet $25 max bet 2 hands at $150 each
spread 6 to 1
br $20,000
60 rounds/hr

results of sim:
win/hr $3.93
ror: 89.4%

same parameters for dd sim:
win/hr: $58.50
ror: 7.1%

thus, it seems I should stay with dd as I play my game.
the 6 d is unacceptable.

please advise.
I did this cvcx sim in response
to a post reply that suggested I play
6d on my comp program with mgm resorts
international, per my op of "should I accept
this comp???"

it was suggested that I would do better if
I played the 6 d.
please advise.

[Three]

Your spread is way to small for 6 deck shoe. That is a DD game spread because they most likely won't tolerate more but you can get away with much more at a shoe game. Try at least 1 to 12 if not more. The rules are not good (double 9,10,11 only. No resplit aces, no surrender) and the pen is noting to get excited about. Surrender is a very important option to shoe games, especially H17 shoe games. The game is pretty bad. DD games are watched really closely in LV. Play other casinos that have better games and take advantage of the comps. A comp whore betting system at another game that gets a a higher rating can satisfy the casino without risking much. Bj doesn't get you much in comps. Pick a crowded craps table with lots of prop bets or a baccarat table where the players handle the cards. These games will be very slow so not many bets/hr. You may not even be required to play for the offer. Oscar's Grind or some other betting system that doesn't raise your bet much but allows you to systematically get ahead with fewer wins than losses is a good choice. Just remember not to chase your losses into the extreme. You will be making money and can afford to cry uncle and end the progression.

I did a hybrid of Oscar's grind and the cancellation system to play in 2 big BJ tournament on a weekend at a casino that the BJ was not worth playing. I won a couple thousand betting mostly quarters over the 3 days and not chasing to the point to wipe out all my winnings. A couple times one more step of risk would have won the progression but several times I would have lost as much as I was willing to risk. Midi baccarat even has countable side bets and they let you make notes on pen and paper they provide. You can exactly track every card giving a perfect TC every time and only bet the side bets when they are plus EV. Imagine having the exact RC on paper and knowing exactly how many cards have been seen every time. This will help keep your play at around neutral expectation. The variance on the Dragon 7 is huge as it pays 40 to 1. The index is low enough at +4 for the level 2 count that you will bet it often enough. I don't pay much attention to the Panda 8 as it's index is +11. It is a level 4 count so maybe it isn't that high but if you focus on one only the dragon 7 is much better. The Panda 8 only pays 25 to 1. They make the side bets not worth playing by restricting the max bats but if you are comp whoring anyway...

[bigplayer]

I wouldn't play 6D with anything less than a 20-1 spread coupled additionally with table exits at -1 to 1.5 High-Low True, and I certainly would never play a 6D game with the rules the original poster described even if it was the last game on earth unless the casino was cutting off like 20 cards from the end of the shoe.

[ohbehave]

min bet $25 max bet 2 hands at $150 each


12 to 1, no?

[RustyNCrusty]

Mhb
A few questions…How did you arrive at the LV 6D table conditions that you’ll be playing? Is this an assumption? A $25 min will buy you a far better game at the store you quoted. Even a $10 min game will have better rules than those you quoted. Are you using indexes?

[ohbehave]

Not much better in this sim and the bet ramp is awkward. Changing the ramp to something more natural though reduces the winrate to $6.31 and while slightly reducing the ror.

Sim1.jpg

[Blitzkrieg]

[QUOTE=Tthree;129246] Pick a crowded craps table with lots of prop bets QUOTE]

That's a quick way to destroy a bankroll, on top of that he would be putting money on the worst possible bets at the table with 1 roll of the dice. Why tell this to a guy who just took a $5K beating on a BJ table? I would not recommend doing that at all if you want to keep your bankroll and sanity intact. If he wants to play craps, he needs to stay off the prop bets and play the Pass Line or Don't Pass line with odds, or place the 6 & 8.

[mhb]

Mhb
A few questions…How did you arrive at the LV 6D table conditions that you’ll be playing? Is this an assumption? A $25 min will buy you a far better game at the store you quoted. Even a $10 min game will have better rules than those you quoted. Are you using indexes?

I used the above 6d table conditions for the sake of conservatism and because
these are the conditions that I am used to when I play the dd game at
a very desirable indian casino.

I understand that ls, soft doubling add a fraction of a percent
to ev. penetration at 75% seems acceptable and common
for 6 d.

even with better table conditions it seems the ev and ror
are unacceptable unless the spread goes way up from
12 to 1.

wonging would make a big difference I understand with
6d, but due to mobility issues I cannot wong and I must
sit, therefore the dd game seems the game for me.

I think I need to protect my dd game as I attempted
to do per my post on "pr and goodwill" discussion.

[bigplayer]

One hand, because of card eating considerations 1@25 to 2@150 plays more like a 1 to 9 spread. When you drop to one hand, especially if heads up, you have to play 33% more negative rounds to eat the rest of the deck. Still it helps.

Sent using Tapatalk

[mhb]

I wouldn't play 6D with anything less than a 20-1 spread coupled additionally with table exits at -1 to 1.5 High-Low True, and I certainly would never play a 6D game with the rules the original poster described even if it was the last game on earth unless the casino was cutting off like 20 cards from the end of the shoe.

my feeling is that the only way to beat the 6d
game is to back count and wong the game.
sitting there with a 20 to 1 plus spread is not
going to last long and one will be backed off.
that is my experience.
I cannot wong due to limited mobility
so I am confined to dd I think.

[mhb]

Mhb
A few questions…How did you arrive at the LV 6D table conditions that you’ll be playing? Is this an assumption? A $25 min will buy you a far better game at the store you quoted. Even a $10 min game will have better rules than those you quoted. Are you using indexes?

I use uston's advanced plus minus with indices, about 90% of his
indices; I omit a few that rarely come up.

[KJ]

results of sim:
win/hr $3.93
ror: 89.4%

First off, these numbers don't look correct. Are you sure this is correct?

Next, the way you describe your financial situation, I would equate it to someone like myself, in the fact that your BR in basically non-replenishible. In these situations, players usually play to an almost ridiculously low RoR, usually less than 1%. We simply can not afford to lose or even take a really significant hit to our bankroll, that would put us out of business. Even though, you don't play for a living, because of the non-replenishible nature of your BR, You need to start thinking the same way. Protect the nest egg (bankroll) at all costs. Again, this means obscenely conservative wagering compared to BR.

And frankly, I would suggest that your bankroll is NOT currently $23K. If you agonized about dropping 5K, reducing your BR from 28k to 23k, there is no way in hell, you are going to allow yourself to lose it all down to zero. You will have a cutoff point, where you are no longer willing to risk anything. Maybe it will be 10K, maybe 12k, maybe 15k. I don't know and at this point, you probably don't know either. But running sims, based on a now 23k bankroll, is really unrealistic. I don't think you are being honest with yourself.

And finally, you made a comment, something along the lines of wanting to play higher levels for the better comps. Don't do that! As a rule, unless the comps are something really special, I would strongly recommend against doing that. You will play longer. You will play worse conditions. You will lose much more than you should have attempting to generate comps and bonuses that are worth a tiny fraction of what you lose. Think of comps and bonuses as just that....a bonus. You play your game, the best games you can play, best conditions and levels you can play to give yourself the best chance. Any comps/bonus are just extra.

So If I were you, I would re-vamp your game and plan of attack, beginning with your bankroll and what you are honestly willing to put at stake and then, I would tone down your level of play, to play limits that are very conservative for your bankroll, making protecting your bankroll, top priority.

[mhb]

thank you kj for your well thought out comments.
as far as the comps are concerned I need the comped
hotel rooms at the casino I play at for their dd game that
I can beat I think.

I need a place to stay and relax when I go to the casino, as
it is too expensive to pay for hotel rooms out of pocket.

I think the writing is on the wall for me. the 6d game is out
of my league because it requires wonging.

this dd game I play with no heat is unbelievably excellent.
it sounds too good to be true, so I always am in fear I will
be shut out of this game. so far so good however, for the last
two years.

I am in an unusual situation for ap, as it seems this is
the only game I can play, considering my limitations.

you are correct, I will walk away from the bj game if
my br gets too low, maybe 5k because at this level
I cannot bet enough to get the comps for hotel etc.

I need to bet at least 75 as max bet I think to get
comps and have advantage.

that means br of 5 to 7 thousand. I think this is
where I stand with my future at bj.

if my br gets this low I plan on converting
to no limit low blinds texas holdem when I
will have maybe 50 buy ins at 100 each and when
my br would be replenishable to put together 100 here
and there to buy into the low blind holdem games.

hopefully I won't get to that point and I will be able
to continue with bj and the comps. but I must
be prepared for the worst.

I am considering lowering my bets to 75 two hands at
75 with my 23k br for conservatism. I have to give this
serious thought as you say to protect my br.

but then I have to ask is betting 25 min to two hands
at 75 max going to give me an ev worth playing. I am not
sure, it needs a simulation.

these are the considerations.

the game I play is dd with
h17, 80% penetration, double on 9,10,11,
no resplit aces, split to 4 hands, no s, das,
where the pit does not seem to care, they have
other things on their minds I know not what.
very accommodating pit.
there is the eye in the sky which is a cloud
on this game and that is source of my fears
but so far so good.

this is my assessment of where I stand.

please advise......