Originally Posted by
Dog Hand
James,
Including the rebate, the actual player's edge is MORE than 0.38%. That's because the "0.62%" figure you quoted for the house edge is, in fact, an Initial Bet Advantage of -0.62% for the player. However, you get the rebate on the Total bet, not just the initial bet. The difference between the IBA and the TBA is due to hands where you put out more money for splits and DD's. Since you do these only when doing so is more advantageous that not doing so, your TBA will be higher (or, in this case, less negative) than your IBA. Thus, with the 1% rebate, you'll have an overall edge higher than the 0.38% figure you quoted... though off-hand, I don't know HOW much higher.
Note also that the rebate can have an effect on B.S. As an example, let's say that, for a given hand without the rebate, the H(EV) is +60.0%, while the DD(EV) is +59.5%. Thus, if you're betting $100, hitting has an EV of +$60, while DD has an EV of +$59.50, so you'd Hit.
Now WITH the rebate, the H(EV) stays the same, but the DD(EV) increases to +$60.50, since you've put out an additional $100 to DD. Thus, with the rebate considered, you'd DD rather than hit.
To find actual hands for which the B.S. changes, you'll need EV tables for your game.
As to your plan to vary your bet with the count, I'd suggest that, for such poor penetration, you'd likely be better off simply ignoring the count and flat-betting. This might also increase your longevity at this game.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
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