Advice Needed For BJ Game With Rebate/Commission

[James989]

Hi,


6 deck, S17, BJ(pay 3 to 2), DAS, Double on hard 9,10 & 11, Soft DD counts as hard hand, No surrender, ENHC, All pairs(except Ace pair) split to maximum 3 hands, Ace pair split to maximum 2 hands. The house edge is 0.62%. The casino will gives 1% REBATE on the total betting amount(including split and double) at the end of the trip regardless of player win or loss. That means player have the edge of +0.38% off the top !

However, the game is dealt from CSM, but the used cards is put in the discard tray and only put back to CSM when accumulated until about 1 deck. So the penetration is 1/6.

Betting limits $10 - $ 300, you can bet from 1x$10 to 7x$300, NO HEAT AT ALL !

I am thinking to use REKO system but I need advice on the betting strategy, I have bankroll $20,000(2000 units) :-

a) My acceptable ROR is full kelly, how should I bet according to the running count(REKO) so that my EV/hrs >= $80 ?
b) How much the required trip bankroll ?
c) What is the actual ROR base on your proposed betting strategy ?


James

[bjarg]

James, I know the game you are talking about and I know several players that were forbidden from casinos for taking advantage of the commision. So you should tread carefully despite the apparent lack of heat. Casinos are more aware of how that can be exploited. Good luck!

[bjarg]

Oh yes, you can pm me if you want information on optimal play against a CSM.

[James989]

I am not the member so I can't PM you. Your email ?

[bjarg]

[email protected]

[James989]

Thanks. Waiting for your reply

[bjarg]

Im at the airport now and have a long trip ahead of me so give me couple of days.

[James989]

Thanks. I can share with you some info on baccarat sidebets if you want.

[bjarg]

Thanks, but no need to

[Dog Hand]

<snip>6 deck, S17, BJ(pay 3 to 2), DAS, Double on hard 9,10 & 11, Soft DD counts as hard hand, No surrender, ENHC, All pairs(except Ace pair) split to maximum 3 hands, Ace pair split to maximum 2 hands. The house edge is 0.62%. The casino will gives 1% REBATE on the total betting amount(including split and double) at the end of the trip regardless of player win or loss. That means player have the edge of +0.38% off the top !
<snip>

James

James,

Including the rebate, the actual player's edge is MORE than 0.38%. That's because the "0.62%" figure you quoted for the house edge is, in fact, an Initial Bet Advantage of -0.62% for the player. However, you get the rebate on the Total bet, not just the initial bet. The difference between the IBA and the TBA is due to hands where you put out more money for splits and DD's. Since you do these only when doing so is more advantageous that not doing so, your TBA will be higher (or, in this case, less negative) than your IBA. Thus, with the 1% rebate, you'll have an overall edge higher than the 0.38% figure you quoted... though off-hand, I don't know HOW much higher.

Note also that the rebate can have an effect on B.S. As an example, let's say that, for a given hand without the rebate, the H(EV) is +60.0%, while the DD(EV) is +59.5%. Thus, if you're betting $100, hitting has an EV of +$60, while DD has an EV of +$59.50, so you'd Hit.

Now WITH the rebate, the H(EV) stays the same, but the DD(EV) increases to +$60.50, since you've put out an additional $100 to DD. Thus, with the rebate considered, you'd DD rather than hit.

To find actual hands for which the B.S. changes, you'll need EV tables for your game.

As to your plan to vary your bet with the count, I'd suggest that, for such poor penetration, you'd likely be better off simply ignoring the count and flat-betting. This might also increase your longevity at this game.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Norm]

Is the rebate based on all hands or only lost hands?

[James989]

Is the rebate based on all hands or only lost hands?

ONLY lost hands, NO commissions for win/push hands ! Sorry for misleading info in my first post.

[James989]

James,

Including the rebate, the actual player's edge is MORE than 0.38%. That's because the "0.62%" figure you quoted for the house edge is, in fact, an Initial Bet Advantage of -0.62% for the player. However, you get the rebate on the Total bet, not just the initial bet. The difference between the IBA and the TBA is due to hands where you put out more money for splits and DD's. Since you do these only when doing so is more advantageous that not doing so, your TBA will be higher (or, in this case, less negative) than your IBA. Thus, with the 1% rebate, you'll have an overall edge higher than the 0.38% figure you quoted... though off-hand, I don't know HOW much higher.

Note also that the rebate can have an effect on B.S. As an example, let's say that, for a given hand without the rebate, the H(EV) is +60.0%, while the DD(EV) is +59.5%. Thus, if you're betting $100, hitting has an EV of +$60, while DD has an EV of +$59.50, so you'd Hit.

Now WITH the rebate, the H(EV) stays the same, but the DD(EV) increases to +$60.50, since you've put out an additional $100 to DD. Thus, with the rebate considered, you'd DD rather than hit.

To find actual hands for which the B.S. changes, you'll need EV tables for your game.

As to your plan to vary your bet with the count, I'd suggest that, for such poor penetration, you'd likely be better off simply ignoring the count and flat-betting. This might also increase your longevity at this game.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Hi Dog Hand,

Thanks for your reply.

I have re-confirmed with the casino, they ONLY give commissions to the total bet amount for the lost hands. NO commissions for bet amount of win/push hands.

So, 1 % commissions may only worth half of it (or slightly more than half) i.e 0.5%.

Am I correct ?

James