very curious simulations

[mhb]

dear kj,
I will be in las vegas may 16 to may 21 on comped
programs when I will not actually play much. I will
be on a vacation and I will more or less stay and stiff
two casinos on this comp program.
I won't be able to play much because I can't play
the 6d and the dd games will have low penetration
in most cases and will be watched too closely; thus
this is a vacation to see a concert comped and to get
away.
you seem to have something in common with my
situation and you have good understanding.
if you like pm to me and we might be able to
meet up and compare notes.
please advise...

[Three]

That's a quick way to destroy a bankroll, on top of that he would be putting money on the worst possible bets at the table with 1 roll of the dice.

You misunderstand. You don't bet the prop bets but the others betting them slow the game to a crawl. You get your hours in but make few bets. I assumed he knew enough to bet the line bets.

[stopgambling]

I would take KJ's simple and practical approach which is not too hard to follow.Especially when it comes to straight counting and some advice in LV.

[bigplayer]

sitting there with a 20 to 1 plus spread is not
going to last long and one will be backed off.

You would be incorrrect on that. Casinos that back you off for spreading 25 to 2x500 would also likely back you off for spreading 100 to 2x500 or even 2x100 to 2x500 if you sit there long enough and backcounting is often more transparent than massive spreading on shoe games. Big spread on shoes and ending your session after one bet cycle is very difficult for the casino to catch and the very act of leaving usually means the casino doesn't bother to try. I'm not saying you'll never be caught, but I've found spreading smaller and trying to play longer sessions gets very undesirable results and you get backed off anyway. ((Not to mention most casinos have some sort of restrictions on Mid-Entry either banning it or limiting your bet to some ridiculously small amount))

[bjarg]

And frankly, I would suggest that your bankroll is NOT currently $23K. If you agonized about dropping 5K, reducing your BR from 28k to 23k, there is no way in hell, you are going to allow yourself to lose it all down to zero. You will have a cutoff point, where you are no longer willing to risk anything. Maybe it will be 10K, maybe 12k, maybe 15k. I don't know and at this point, you probably don't know either. But running sims, based on a now 23k bankroll, is really unrealistic. I don't think you are being honest with yourself.

This is an EXCELLENT point you are making, and one that is rarely brought up.
There are many new players who have $10K or $20K or whatever in their bank accounts and treat that as their BR.
But the truth is that if they take a big hit they will probably quit way before losing all of it.
I've seen it happen many times.
So for players that are starting I think it is KEY for them to realistically assess what their BR really is and not dellude themselves.
Most people overestimate their BR and therefore end up overbetting.
Again, I think this is an EXCELLENT point you are making KJ and one that all new players should read very carefully.

[mhb]

You would be incorrrect on that. Casinos that back you off for spreading 25 to 2x500 would also likely back you off for spreading 100 to 2x500 or even 2x100 to 2x500 if you sit there long enough and backcounting is often more transparent than massive spreading on shoe games. Big spread on shoes and ending your session after one bet cycle is very difficult for the casino to catch and the very act of leaving usually means the casino doesn't bother to try. I'm not saying you'll never be caught, but I've found spreading smaller and trying to play longer sessions gets very undesirable results and you get backed off anyway. ((Not to mention most casinos have some sort of restrictions on Mid-Entry either banning it or limiting your bet to some ridiculously small amount))

from what you say and I agree with it, it seems to me that the only
way 6 d games can be worth the effort is to backcount, play the
high counts and keep moving around the casino doing this.

and this type of activity will be noticed if one does it for more
than 45 minutes to an hour in any one casino at any one time.
and it can be done best where the casino has many of these 6d
games. if there are only a few tables of 6d then this type of
backcounting will be noticed and stopped as well. the casino
should have many 6d games and they should be busy so one
can do this backcounting and do it from the crowd, blending in
with the crowd.

according to my sims on 6d games with reasonable spreads
I really don't see how 6 d games can be worth it if one sits
through the long low counts. one must backcount I think as
I say above.

[ohbehave]

bp is not advising to backcount, he's saying sit and spread massively to your br. Being wheelchair bound backcounting will be much more obvious than wonging out. If you wong out all TC-1 or less it will be about 4 of every 5 shoes. Maybe thats too much wonging out for you. Spread big and wong out every 3rd shoe that goes to -1 and every shoe that goes to -3. Something like that should be possible even wheelchair bound. Play up your situation. You gotta go pee alot, right?? Rig up a fake cath bag that has to be emptied often. You'll get all the understanding from the pit you'll need.

[ohbehave]

Another. You get tired easily, right?? Doze off during some minus count hands. What pit is going to give you shit!

[Jabberwocky]

You need the services of a stakehorse. Look for one-they are out there. I got one myself.

[ahjooma]

Can you get a partner to signal you into a table?
i think you can use your wheel chair to a advantage like others suggested.

[mhb]

You need the services of a stakehorse. Look for one-they are out there. I got one myself.

please advise
what is a stakehorse?

[Jabberwocky]

Many world class poker stars began their careers as stakehorses. Stu Ungar's gin rummy foray also comes to mind.

[muffdiver]

Many world class poker stars began their careers as stakehorses. Stu Ungar's gin rummy foray also comes to mind.

I think mhb wanted a definition for "stakehorse"!!!