The shift in advantage depends in the count you use. He gave the shift for halves the graphs are for hilo.
I'm not using Norm's chart, I'm using my own strategy tables/calculations for Wong Halves x2. Although every play has some amount of non-linearity with how the EV changes with the count, I like knowing the rate of change of EV in the range of TCs near each play's index. This tells me quantitatively that splitting Tens below the index is very expensive cover, and when the TC is well above the index, you'd at least want to know that there is potentially a lot of EV there, but temper that information with what KJ is saying about scrutiny and longevity. Here are some data from my charts, the EV at various TC near the 10,10 v 6 index:
TC EV
6 -8.55
8 -3.21
10 +2.22
12 +7.73
At TC = 0, splitting Tens is very costly cover, around -25% to -30%, for dealer showing 6 or 5. In negative counts, it would be even more expensive to split Tens.
The EOR's for the hand matchups in a S17 game:
TTv5:
(2,3,4,5,6,T,A) +4.8985, +6.2769, +7.4197, +7.2718, +5.9003, -5.6468, -3.7894
TTv6:
(2,3,4,5,6,T,A) +5.8239, +7.0580, +7.0490, +6.8801, +2.7110, -5.6765, -1.1824
Count tags:
Halves': +0.5, +1,+1,+1.5, +1, -1, -1
Highlow's: +1, +1, +1, +1, +1, -1, -1
Remember the play is more about dealer bust probability as it is making a twenty. The 5 is the worst card for the dealer to catch with a 5 or 6 up. The two counts count them differently. Hilo it is just another low card, Halves it is the strongest low card in terms of count tags. The 5 gives a 2 card total of 11 or 10 and the dealer will have another card. Oh no, a T for 20 or 21. The lesser weighting of the 2 also has an effect as the count correlates better to dealer bust probabilities if a large number of 2's have been removed which means the 5 is likely over represented in the cards remaining. If it is not halves has that covered but hilo doesn't. This all translates to more advantage accumulating per true count after the index is exceeded. Halves also counts the 7 as +0.5.
Also Halves counts the 9 which has a big affect on these matchups, more than the ace does. Tag -0.5, EOR TTv5 -4.3401 and TTv6 -4.3101. Hilo doesn't consider the 9.
Last edited by Three; 04-06-2014 at 06:22 AM.
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