Bad trip

[blackjacktim]

So I recently went to the casino for the first time since I started practicing counting and it was like everything went wrong. And a lot of it was my fault, but I was hoping someone could give me some advice on where else I might have gone wrong.

my first mistake was jumping into a game mid shoe when I got there. My thinking was that I would bet the minimum until the end of the shoe, but I ended up losing a lot of money right off the bat. Another thing I think might have been a problem was that I ended up going heads up in a 6d game. Why is this a bad idea?

I also didn't stick to my spread and had a time constraint so I got panicky around the end of my time there and tried to make bigger bets to win some of my money back. Stupid I know.

but what really surprised me was that when I was playing according to plan ($5 minimum until the true count was positive and a spread of 5 - 50) I won when the count was really negative (like -4 to -9) and I lost consistently even when the count was really positive (+4 to +9). Has anyone else had this experience?

Ultimately I didn't lose my bankroll because I had to leave, but this was a pretty significant wake up call that I need much more practice.

[Shoofly]

but what really surprised me was that when I was playing according to plan ($5 minimum until the true count was positive and a spread of 5 - 50) I won when the count was really negative (like -4 to -9) and I lost consistently even when the count was really positive (+4 to +9). Has anyone else had this experience? .

EVERYONE has had this experience. Remember, your edge is very slight, so these things are going to happen. If you can't put it behind you and remember that you will be successful in the long run, this game will drive you nuts.

[paymypush]

So I recently went to the casino for the first time since I started practicing counting and it was like everything went wrong. And a lot of it was my fault, but I was hoping someone could give me some advice on where else I might have gone wrong.

my first mistake was jumping into a game mid shoe when I got there. My thinking was that I would bet the minimum until the end of the shoe, but I ended up losing a lot of money right off the bat. Another thing I think might have been a problem was that I ended up going heads up in a 6d game. Why is this a bad idea?

I also didn't stick to my spread and had a time constraint so I got panicky around the end of my time there and tried to make bigger bets to win some of my money back. Stupid I know.

but what really surprised me was that when I was playing according to plan ($5 minimum until the true count was positive and a spread of 5 - 50) I won when the count was really negative (like -4 to -9) and I lost consistently even when the count was really positive (+4 to +9). Has anyone else had this experience?

Ultimately I didn't lose my bankroll because I had to leave, but this was a pretty significant wake up call that I need much more practice.

There is much to learn. Your last sentence says it all. Patience and discipline, my friend. You'll get there.

[blackjackplyr]

I also didn't stick to my spread and had a time constraint so I got panicky around the end of my time there and tried to make bigger bets to win some of my money back. Stupid I know.

but this was a pretty significant wake up call that I need much more practice.

Dangerous, don't fall back to the ploppy mentality of chasing loses.

Fortunately you didn't bust out, but there is something I always like to tell myself when I get too impatient, I wish I could remember were this is from as I want to give credit (if anyone knows), but it goes as;
" We don't practice until we get it right, we practice until we don't get it wrong".

[SiMi]

Hi, tim!

The situation you encountered (losing on high counts and winning on low counts) happens a lot and is the reason for the huge variance in counting. This gets into money management and it's important you're not over-betting on those high counts or you will bust out and end your 'career.'

FWIW, it sounds as if you don't really believe the Law of Large Numbers which underlies what you're doing. Rather than needing more practice, you might need more research to help you truly believe in what you're doing. You said you had a time constraint so you got panicky. That shows you're not thinking of counting as a LONG LONG LONG PROCESS that requires the Law of Large Numbers to work properly. Once I understood that fact, I found it much easier to stick to the plan. Whether you win, lose or draw in any given session should NEVER truly surprise you because a session is such a SMALL PART of the OVERALL PROCESS. The main question after a session is whether you stuck to the plan and didn't make errors. You don't mention how your counting, betting and playing went so it's hard to know if you need practice.

One thing that has helped me a lot with the mental game is accepting the idea that, once you start counting, you no longer have good 'days' and bad 'days.' As a counter, you have begun a very long journey that has a beginning but no end. The advantage comes only after sticking to the plan for the fabled "Long Haul." It helps me with discipline to understand that ALL "sessions" are lumped together into one, huge session. When I stop playing is just a convenient point to take a rest and make a record of how it went; that record will simply be tallied together with all the prior records to get an OVERALL TOTAL.

Simulation software helps you see this. If you don't have it already, you should get CVCX and run some sims. You'll be running MILLIONS or even BILLIONS(!) of hands to get meaningful results. Norm recently schooled me on this point and, if you think about it, you realize how your 10-hour, marathon session of 1,000 hands is statistically insignificant - no matter what happened! If you don't trust the math, you won't have the discipline.

[code red]

My first trip 6 months ago wasn't a walk in the park either. I could keep count & play perfect basic strategy, but when I went to start betting 8-12 units I became nervous and lost the count after I won big or lost big. That first night I left 40 units down. I knew I made mistakes so I went back home and came back the next month. Ever since then I've become very comfortable sitting at the tables and interacting with players. When you're practicing deal at least 5 seats and the dealer. If you have chips to play with that's even better. Count and listen to the radio or TV. If you have a discard tray take pictures of 1-4 decks and review them. Once you come back to the casino you will find it so easy to keep up with the running count and calculate how many decks are left. You might need to raise your spread to beat the game you're playing though. Good luck next time.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Your chances of winning an upcoming hand in BJ ranges (roughly speaking) from 40% to 46%.

You are always an underdog to win your next hand.

Your profit potential is correlated to blackjack premiums and improved doubles.

[genini1]

So I recently went to the casino for the first time since I started practicing counting and it was like everything went wrong. And a lot of it was my fault, but I was hoping someone could give me some advice on where else I might have gone wrong.

my first mistake was jumping into a game mid shoe when I got there. My thinking was that I would bet the minimum until the end of the shoe, but I ended up losing a lot of money right off the bat. Another thing I think might have been a problem was that I ended up going heads up in a 6d game. Why is this a bad idea?

I also didn't stick to my spread and had a time constraint so I got panicky around the end of my time there and tried to make bigger bets to win some of my money back. Stupid I know.

but what really surprised me was that when I was playing according to plan ($5 minimum until the true count was positive and a spread of 5 - 50) I won when the count was really negative (like -4 to -9) and I lost consistently even when the count was really positive (+4 to +9). Has anyone else had this experience?

Ultimately I didn't lose my bankroll because I had to leave, but this was a pretty significant wake up call that I need much more practice.

Jumping into a shoe partway through is never good and I recommend never doing it. There are exceptions to this, but unless you are advanced enough to know the benefits/disadvantages you aren't the exception. Go to the bathroom, take a look around the casino floor, hell you can even just tell them you don't want to interrupt the flow of the cards.

Going heads up in a game is never a bad thing from a game point of view (there is some merit to it being bad from a cover point of view). Playing heads up will let you play more hands per hour and if you are counting this is good. If you are practicing then a full table will allow you to try and keep the count while dealing with distractions with a much lower cost.

Experiences with winning in low counts and losing in high counts is very common. Part of it is simply selection bias and part of it is how counting works. With only a 1% edge either direction for negative and positive counts you are going to experience variance. This is why card counters have large bankrolls to deal with it. Playing $5 BJ requires a minimum of $10k most people say.

Card counting is a very risky profession and a very expensive hobby. If you are serious about it you really need to practice a lot more, read a lot more, and even adjust how you view the game. Jumping into a shoe midway through just to play is not a good trait to have.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

blackjacktim,

Spend the Spring and Summer saving up your money so that you can have a decent bankroll.

Study and practice day and night.

Then, and only then, consider if you have the nerves of steel that is requisite for this avocation.

[yesiamred]

blackjacktim,

Spend the Spring and Summer saving up your money so that you can have a decent bankroll.

Study and practice day and night.

Then, and only then, consider if you have the nerves of steel that is requisite for this avocation.

I second the motion, I saved, practiced and studied for years and continue to do so daily. I finally have a decent bankroll to work with after many years.

[bjarg]

blackjacktim,

Spend the Spring and Summer saving up your money so that you can have a decent bankroll.

Study and practice day and night.

Then, and only then, consider if you have the nerves of steel that is requisite for this avocation.

Sage advice.
Unfortunately the only way of knowing if you have or not have what it takes is by playing and losing.

[ZenKinG]

Hmm you must have done something wrong, maybe inaccurate TC division or lost RC because like many others can attest to, your very first time you usually win, crazy as that sounds. It's almost like when someone switches their count, the next time they step in the casino they win, as weird as that sounds. Might be from the extreme attention to detail and new challenge at hand. If you were to lose, you would usually not lose much, but in your case, you seem to have lost a lot. I would check to see and look back if you made any possible errors. I hope you also know at least the Ill 18 and Fab 4 play departure indices to your arsenal, if not more.

Of course, you could've played perfectly and just had bad variance to start off your career, very possible, because like many others have noted, we have such a small edge and we're never favored to win the next hand, so there will be many swings. You will profit in "long run" from the increased number of 3:2 blackjack payouts, doubles, and splits, and more dealer busts, so as you can see you also better be 100% perfect with your play and know as many indices as well to withstand as much bad variance as possible and get to the long run as quick as possible or it's gonna be a tough road.

Stick to it and when you think you're ready, practice some more, and when you think you're ready again, keep practicing, until you're a machine and play with no emotions. You showed a fatal flaw in that you lost your discipline. Again with such a small edge you better not let that be a consistent feature with your play, or say goodbye to your bankroll.

[bjarg]

because like many others can attest to, your very first time you usually win, crazy as that sounds. It's almost like when someone switches their count, the next time they step in the casino they win, as weird as that sounds.

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Are crazy and weird the new words for stupid?