Or, lower variance allows you to raise your bets and EV with the same risk.
First you have to learn what your casino is sensitive to. There is a list of things most casinos are sensitive to. Obviously if you wong out dat this casino move to another table or wait to the next shoe. I would sit down and play but I am good at keeping the casino happy with what I do.Originally Posted by seriousplayer
To use a baseball analogy, if you just throw fastballs no matter how good your stuff is they will catch up with it given enough time. If you mix in some off speed and breaking pitches they don't catch up with your fastball. If you go into the casino and play and bet perfectly to a simple count and wonging with the count they will catch up with you. Betting and playing cover is the other pitches. They were sure you had an advantage before that but many counters give their slim advantage away with cover they can't afford or maybe you are just a bad counter that will be a cash cow for them or maybe you aren't counting at all. Some short sighted casinos will back these players off but the smart ones make lots of money off of them. Only you can determine which you are dealing with.
Low level counters can't afford cover but usually don't need it anyway. The trouble is they will assess you as a counter but not act until either your winnings get out of hand or your BR gets big enough to view your play as a threat worth taking action against. The latter means you may burn the games you have been playing before you have a sufficient BR to make any real money there. Once you reach that point they back you off. Not the desired outcome for you. They let you play while your RoR was high (their guess) hoping to get your entire BR and back you off once your risk of ruin is lower and you have a real shot to make significant money.
If you can afford cover (higher level counter) it is your task to combine the most effective cover at the lowest price. Not doing what all counters do is a great mindset to get to that goal. The cheapest cover is free and has to do with comportment at the table. Most counters try to go unnoticed and want as little interaction with the suits as possible. They come off the top of a fresh shoe with their min bet. They raise their bets after a bunch of low cards hit the table and lower after a bunch of high cards hit. I don't need to list all the things counters do for you to get the idea. The less you look like a counter and act like a counter and play like a counter and bet like a counter the more time you buy with the cost to your play. Some cover is +EV, some costs you nothing and most will either cost you EV or increase variance or both. If your level of play at this game affords cover you must find effective, cheap cover.
Wonging style is a good place to start. If you are familiar with BJA3, Mr Perfect (wong in with an advantage but makes no waiting bets if advantage disappears) will get you backed off the quickest. Wong in, wong out (wongs in with an advantage but makes waiting bets until the departure point is reached after having made waiting bets while the re was no advantage but before the optimal departure point) is not much better. White Rabbit (plays off the top of a fresh shoe and leaves at the optimal departure point) looks the most natural. They are all very similar in results. What you described was WiWo making the disadvantage bets (waiting bets) but then sticking around not making bets when the optimal departure point was reached. That is not optimal wonging as you make disadvantage bets, didn't leave at the optimal departure point and is easiest to spot having to use wonging in place just like Mr Perfect does. If you have a reason not to be a table hopping White Rabbit, playing off the top and quickly abandoning bad shoes, you must remember wonging in place can only be used very sparingly if at all. Most of the time it looks too suspicious. If you can time a girl friend visit or ordering a drink or something else that demands your attention for a few rounds wonging in place can look perfectly natural. Just don't overdue the cell phone thing. That only works when used at low frequency. It just looks suspicious if it happens most of the time the count drops.
The main goal of wonging is to play as few waiting bets and at as small a disadvantage as possible while playing as many advantage bets as possible. You can mix your style up pretty good and accomplish this goal without doing anything that gets you red flagged. If all you do is this strategy it makes it easier to decide they know your strategy and it is one they don't want employed in their casino. If you accomplish your goals by mixing up lots of different approaches it is really hard to decide they understand what you are doing and need to back you off as a threat. They will need to see it in net win over time to be sure. Some places back off lots of ploppies to over protect their game. The cost ends up being more than letting most of the counters play and only backing off serious threats but you have to work with how they do business. You will probably not buy much time with cover play at a joint like that. Might as well take your shot or avoid the casino altogether if they communicate with other casinos. If they do share information with other casinos you probably should avoid the casino altogether. You will not win enough to offset the cost to longevity by the shared info on you.
Last edited by Three; 05-06-2014 at 07:00 AM.
Tthree thank you for your advice.
"If you have a reason not to be a table hopping White Rabbit, playing off the top and quickly abandoning bad shoes, you must remember wonging in place can only be used very sparingly if at all."
The reason I was not being a table hopping White Rabbit is because the penetration is not good on other tables. I only found one table and sometimes two tables with good penetration. They cut off 1.25 to 1 deck. As you know deck penetration in an eight deck game is very important. When I was inspecting I see other tables cutting off 2 decks or more. Some of them are 1.5 deck cut off.
You could ask them to hold your spot and then wait for the next shoe to return.
You explained the cost of being a White Rabbit but I am not sure you considered the cost of not being a White Rabbit. The White Rabbit finds a good shoe and gets a few rounds less at the end of the crappy pen shoes but by table hopping will find more playable situations and is more likely to find that great shoe. Your WiWo-Mr Perfect hybrid gets a few extra rounds when the advantage is still present at that time but by waiting through all those bad shoes, either wonging in place or making waiting bets, that is time you could have spent trying to find an advantage elsewhere. That is a big cost. If you can leave and pick up a fresh shoe immediately you are much better off. Optimal departure is calculated assuming you will be looking elsewhere when it is reached, either immediately finding something or with a modest wait. All things being equal pen and crowding at the table decides the day. If you have fewer people at the table you pick up rounds. You still lose those several potentially juiciest rounds at deep pen but you may get more rounds in before the advantage is gone. It sounded like you wanted to play 2 spots. Only being able to play 1 spot also came at a cost. When those anticipated good cards hit they are more likely to hit the dealer and the other players with you playing one hand rather than 2 and with more players taking cards when it happens. Not only do they dilute your chances but they make the opportunity last for fewer rounds before the opportunity os gone.
"You could ask them to hold your spot and then wait for the next shoe to return."
That is a good point but sometime when the pit boss see another player at another table and the table is full they usually remove the marker. It is correct that it would be better to play two hand than one hand when anticipated good cards hit the table. The casino don't require a 2xmin when playing two hands or 5xmin when playing three hands I think this could be a good thing.
Last edited by seriousplayer; 05-06-2014 at 08:32 AM.
I find that heavy conversation works well. Make friends with a ploppy and work as a team with em. Wong at the same time or suggest when to raise bet. Give them advice and comment on their play. I think this is the best cover plus its fun.
If you seem to serious about what you're doing then you should expect heat.
A lot of great tips in this thread.
I find that mixing it up and doing a lot of different things works best. Don't wong in and out robotically.
I personally never wong in, it makes me too nervous to stand and count for that long.
If the count tanks, don't always do the same thing every time:
If you just lost a couple hands as the count tanked, act disgusted about your losing and it looks more natural to sit out either a few hands or for the rest of the shoe.
If you happen to notice a table nearby that's about to start a new shoe, say you're going to try that table.
If you're winning a lot and the count has tanked, don't robotically drop to the table minimum. Play at least 1 more hand at half or quarter-max bet. It's not a huge loss of EV to occasionally play a big bet during a negative count. If the true count has dropped to -1, and you bet $100 that is only a loss of about $1. That's a very cheap cover play to use once an hour or so.
As others have said don't be quiet.
TALK.
Whether it's to the dealer or other players, you need to do something other than stare at the table hand after hand. I glance over at the TV, or at people walking by, or at other tables all the time. I barely look at the cards on the table lol, or at least that's how it appears.
Also, this took me awhile to learn, but don't let your ego take over.
An AP knows more about blackjack than 99.99% of the other people that play.
So what?
Keep that a secret. Give advice if you want, but don't act 100% confident about it. For example, if someone asks about if they should double a soft 18, say something like "eh I do it sometimes, but I'm not sure if the book says to do it. That's an iffy one. "
It's okay to have some idle table chat with other players. But to give advice? To much chatting especially about how to play, will eventually come back and bite you big time. Just put your head down and play your game.I find that heavy conversation works well. Make friends with a ploppy and work as a team with em. Wong at the same time or suggest when to raise bet. Give them advice and comment on their play. I think this is the best cover plus its fun
If you seem to serious about what you're doing then you should expect heat.
"I think, therfore I can't play blackjack."
Arnold Snyder, Blackbelt in Blackjack pg. 229 (2005)
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