Only adjust bets on whole true counts?

[bigplayer]

Software to figure your edge at each TC in programs like CVCX use the rounding method you specify. If you used Truncating or Flooring when running your original simulation then your edge assumes that you will not make your +3 wager until your TC is at least +3. If the +2 bucket says your edge is +0.64 and your edge at +3 is +1.15% that does not mean that at TC +2.5 your edge is in between. It also does not mean that the +0.64% is your edge at the mid-point of the bucket. It all depends on your rounding method and keeping in mind that not only are there TC frequencies for each whole true count but also TC frequencies for each fractional TC.

All of that aside, if you're very close to the next TC bucket you should not feel any trepidation bumping up your bet somewhat but bumping up all the way to your +3 bet at a TC of +2.8 is probably overbetting by more than you might think.

[kripton]

Great post BP

[ZenMaster_Flash]

On a tangential but important note, it should be pointed out that for purposes of bet-sizing a small measure of inaccuracy is of little import.

However, the same does NOT hold true for employing indices for violating Basic Strategy. The late lamented Peter Griffin noted this in TToB.

[DSchles]

"All of that aside, if you're very close to the next TC bucket you should not feel any trepidation bumping up your bet somewhat but bumping up all the way to your +3 bet at a TC of +2.8 is probably overbetting by more than you might think."

But that isn't what he suggested. He bets 2 units at +2 and 4 units at +3. He asked if it's OK to bet 3 units at +2.8. It's absolutely certain that it is. This question has been over-answered and over-analyzed to death. The simpler answer would be the one I just gave. :-)

Don

[steveistheman84]

yeah, sorry. meant at +2.8, bet 2 units and at +2.7, bet 1.5 units.

[21gunsalute]

Your ramp is designed with betting bins. Each bin is part of the same TC. TC 2 goes from 2.0 to 2.99999. At 2.8 you are not that close to the next bin. The middle of the bin goes from 2.25 to 2.75. The average advantage for the bin is known but the distributions of individual situation advantages is a bell curve. That particular count of TC +2.8 may be on the low end of that advantage bell curve for the TC +2 bin due to the particular deck composition. You can't assume it is on the high side of the bell curve for the bin just because it is barely above the middle group for the fractional TC. You wouldn't be making a terrible assumption but you would be making an assumption that you are not supposed to be making with your optimal ramp. If you did this routinely your average advantage in bin TC +2 would go down as well as the average advantage in the TC +3 bin. Obviously that would have adverse affect on your profits.

Echo this, particularly at high counts. If the TC moves up or down by 1 it doesn't make much sense to to alter your bet. In fact I like to keep betting the same amount until I lose a hand regardless of how much the count drops. Betting large amounts but altering the amount slightly each hand based on the count is a sure way to decrease your longevity.

[bigplayer]

Echo this, particularly at high counts. If the TC moves up or down by 1 it doesn't make much sense to to alter your bet. In fact I like to keep betting the same amount until I lose a hand regardless of how much the count drops. Betting large amounts but altering the amount slightly each hand based on the count is a sure way to decrease your longevity.

This is actually a very good cover idea. If you can maintain the same bet as long as possible as the count moves up and down within ranges of counts (somewhat underbetting at times and somewhat overbetting at times as a consequence) you give the casino much less information to evaluate your skill level and bet correlation to the count. Most high rollers generally bet the same amount all the time or range their bets using a very narrow spread. The more you can mimic some square betting strategy (style of play) the harder it will be for the casino to peg your betting strategy as undesirable. Very few people adjust their bet sizes more than a few times per shoe and when they do it's usually multiple choice between four or five different bet sizes. Ultra High, High, Medium, low, and ultra low. The more you stick to 2 or 3 of those the longer you can last.