I'm just drowning out all the negativity and naysayers.
Well, Norm said not to pile on too heavily on Eliot, so I haven't said anything (in this thread), but, in light of Blitzkrieg's comments, I think a little bit of history is in order. Blitzkrieg, I think it is fair to say that Eliot is a frustrated counter, who didn't have the success in his counting career that he thought he would, so he went a different direction. And I'll stop there regarding Eliot.
Now, I have to say that my feelings regarding this whole particular episode is similar to what biggg said earlier. Eliot is running around sounding the alarm about some of the more advanced, bigger advantage type advantage plays. This has the casino industry scrambling a bit right now to police these other plays, and as a result has taken their focus off us lowly counters a bit right now. Not a bad time, to be flying under the radar a far as good old card counting.
I tend to disagree. The article is far more likely to dissuade casinos from their paranoid focus on card counters. The article is from a now casino consultant telling casinos that they are making an error spending so much time concentrating on counters. Hooray. I want more articles like this.
Now, it could be argued that casinos will spend more time on more complex AP methods. But, that can be extremely difficult for the average casino. And, they have better use of their time -- like drunks, underage patrons, and flat-out thieves, including their own employees.
I try to look at articles with the mindset of casinos. If, using that mindset, it benefits us, I don't give a crap who or why it was written.
Last edited by Norm; 02-26-2014 at 05:07 PM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I wish this were true Norm, but I don't think it is. Zender said the same thing what....a decade ago? And few casinos adopted his approach. Unfortunately, I think this is because casino's are not run by casino people any more. The guys making the decision have a bean counter background and mentality. They end up spending $100 to try to stop the loss of $1.Originally Posted by Norm
Understand the article isn't a "how to make money counting cards" article. Its a hypothetical $100 flat bet in all positive ev rounds to show what the rate of win would be if all variables are kept constant. Not everyone uses a BJ simulator and therefore may not be aware of how small the edge is and what that means in actual earned money potential.
The average person thinks a card counter can waltz into a casino with a couple hundred bucks and walk out a millionaire (slight exaggeration to make the point)
So, the Z-Man and I are tilting at windmills from different angles.Would Miguel de Cervantes say quit?
Ghandi took a long time. But, he won. I think.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I think it must take some serious chops, talent, discipline and deep pocket to make
serious money doing this but it seems like with a lot of practice, many people
can make some money. I think it's more fun than most jobs. Nobody really telling
you what to do, you can just walk off if you don't like people you are sitting with.
there is no bias, racism, favoritism..if you count right, in the end you make some
money.
It is easy to see how dependable counting is for income. Figure you get 60 hands per hour under "normal" conditions. Better yet just worry about rounds and not time as an empty table can give over twice that if you are quick. Run a bunch of sims for the number of rounds you would expect in a year and tabulate the results to see the range of possibilities. Full time AP's get in maybe 60,000 to 100,000 rounds per year. If you need 100,000,000 rounds to have an accurate sim results, run on set of 2,000 50,000 round sims and a set of 1,000 100,000 round sims to get an idea of what to expect. Tabulate the results by sim number and randomly pick 10 numbers to see what to expect for 10 years of play. You can pick the number of random picks to suit you. I think you get the idea. Perhaps others can tweak my suggestion or actually run it. Don't forget this isn't taking into consideration BR considerations and other things that can be added to the sim to tell the full story. The range of the swings in each sim is useful information. Probably more useful than the sim results themselves.
If your BR can withstand the swings.
I prefer not to play with others. The more I allow myself to play with others the harder it gets to make money. The nice thing about no mid-shoe entry is you know you will be playing heads up until you leave the shoe or they shuffle. That is worth more to me than being able to back count. I hate back counting.
If your BR can withstand the swings.
I prefer not to play with others. The more I allow myself to play with others the harder it gets to make money. The nice thing about no mid-shoe entry is you know you will be playing heads up until you leave the shoe or they shuffle. That is worth more to me than being able to back count. I hate back counting.
I wish my schedule allows me to go when there is nobody else. I noticed
that they also close a lot of tables when it's slow.
because my BR is small, I'm pretty limited to which games I can play locally.
in Vegas, my hungry boys ate up all my profits from $5 tables.
its ok. I'm good with small allowance, low risk until I can levitate in air like
some of you.
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