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Thread: Frequency of early Positive counts

  1. 02-19-2014, 08:45 AM #1
    ohbehave
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    Frequency of early Positive counts

    Does anyone have data showing the frequency that a 6 deck shoe hits TC+1 or higher within the first half deck dealt? My empirical results are looking like something between 20-25% but its such a small sample I would like to know more precisely.

    Edit: Also like to know the frequency for a full deck dealt.
    Last edited by ohbehave; 02-19-2014 at 08:52 AM.
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  2. 02-19-2014, 09:04 AM #2
    Norm
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    This is page 403 in Modern Blackjack. Figure 5.4 cards per round.


    True Counts by Depth

    In the previous two pages, charts displayed the range of counts by depth. I put together a three-D chart that added the percentages of each count by depth. But, the charts were so complex they were unreadable. So, I will display the raw data here. For round numbers 1 through 20, Hi-Lo positive count percentages are displayed. You can see that in round 1, 100% of TCs are zero. In round 2, true counts of +1 start to appear and a tiny number of +2s are seen. The negative counts nearly mirror the positive counts and are not shown. In these charts, there were four players. Note, in the previous charts, depth was by quarter-deck, where here they are by round number.

    Round Number
    TC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04%
    6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.08% 0.21%
    5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% 0.21% 0.40% 0.70%
    4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.21% 0.48% 0.91% 1.41% 2.00%
    3 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.19% 0.70% 1.43% 2.19% 3.03% 3.98% 4.78%
    2 0.00% 0.04% 0.95% 2.21% 4.59% 5.33% 7.61% 7.63% 9.19% 8.58%
    1 0.00% 4.51% 9.54% 12% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 15%
    0 100% 92% 79% 70% 57% 51% 49% 46% 37% 35%


    Round Number
    TC 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
    20 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
    19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04%
    18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06%
    17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.08%
    16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.15%
    15 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% 0.21%
    14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.15% 0.32%
    13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 0.23% 0.42%
    12 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.08% 0.19% 0.40% 0.74%
    11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.08% 0.17% 0.34% 0.57% 0.93%
    10 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.08% 0.19% 0.34% 0.59% 0.91% 1.29%
    9 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.11% 0.21% 0.38% 0.59% 0.91% 1.29% 1.75%
    8 0.02% 0.06% 0.15% 0.27% 0.46% 0.72% 1.07% 1.45% 1.90% 2.28%
    7 0.11% 0.21% 0.38% 0.61% 0.88% 1.29% 1.66% 2.04% 2.42% 2.82%
    6 0.36% 0.61% 0.93% 1.31% 1.71% 2.15% 2.55% 3.06% 3.33% 3.52%
    5 1.05% 1.50% 1.96% 2.42% 2.89% 3.37% 3.73% 3.96% 4.19% 4.26%
    4 2.61% 3.18% 3.77% 4.26% 4.70% 4.97% 5.27% 5.37% 5.35% 5.06%
    3 5.33% 5.79% 6.22% 6.55% 6.72% 6.70% 6.49% 6.34% 6.11% 5.60%
    2 9.84% 9.12% 9.86% 8.83% 9.23% 8.34% 8.47% 7.48% 7.08% 6.17%
    1 13% 12% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 8.81% 6.19% 6.51%
    0 35% 34% 26% 26% 26% 24% 17% 18% 18% 14%
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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  3. 02-19-2014, 11:16 AM #3
    ohbehave
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    Oh wow. Thank you Norm!

    One question. With 4 players should the 5.4 cards per round be 13.5?
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  4. 02-19-2014, 11:24 AM #4
    Norm
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    Not relevant. The table was based on heads-up.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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  5. 02-19-2014, 11:30 AM #5
    RS
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Not relevant. The table was based on heads-up.
    Thought you said 4 players not heads up?
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  6. 02-19-2014, 11:35 AM #6
    ohbehave
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    I know I'm being dense at the moment. Heads up is what I figured until I saw the 4 players in the description. So the 4 players are not relevant? And then the 20 rounds is not a full shoe, correct?
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  7. 02-19-2014, 11:41 AM #7
    Norm
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    Oops. Yes, four players. 14 cards per round.
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  8. 02-19-2014, 05:50 PM #8
    Skull
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    Fantastic info in those tables!

    I have been wondering about the frequency of +2 or higher counts using REKO at different penetrations, because of, among other things, cover issues.
    I have been playing CVBJ using REKO and accompanying the count displayed in the screen (since I can't keep the count yet) and it seems that +2 counts appear most of the time only at the end of the shoe (75% pen).
    It is not uncommon for me to play almost 300 rounds and hardly increase my bets.
    I am afraid that by using cover betting I would be overbetting for a long time and possibly really hurting my gains.
    Otherwise I would flat bet for ages and then when the count finally increased I would have to increase wildly my bets if I wanted to compensate for my previous flat -EV bets.

    Question 1: Are the positive counts in REKO harder to appear than using Hi-Lo?
    Question 2: Is it possible to create those tables using CVCX or CVData?
    Question 3: It is harder to use cover playing REKO?

    Thanks a lot!!
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  9. 02-19-2014, 06:04 PM #9
    Norm
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    1. Generally speaking, balanced counts are somewhat less likely to identify positive situatins early in the shoe. But, are very slightly better wher eit really counts.
    2. CVData
    3. Cover is an enormous area. Short answer: no.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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  10. 02-19-2014, 06:17 PM #10
    Skull
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    1. Generally speaking, balanced counts are somewhat less likely to identify positive situatins early in the shoe. But, are very slightly better wher eit really counts.
    2. CVData
    3. Cover is an enormous area. Short answer: no.

    Thanks!! I will keep my REKO endeavours then
    And get me CVData fast!!

    Best!
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