Losing big on high counts

[Blitzkrieg]

Does anyone occasionally find themselves over betting in some situations where the count is real high, but only to see the dealer getting the winning hands? I played 329 hands on a BJ sim Double-deck S17, heads-up, one hand at a time this morning and won 151 hands, lost 149, and pushed 29 times using the REKO strategy. Starting with $1000 I ended up at $5530 but the session didn't go according to how I would have liked. I only ended up positive $530 on the sim when I clearly should have been down $5000, but could have potentially ended up with $7500 (thanks to an unlimited bankroll in the sim) had I played at a higher level after I clawed my way back up to $5000.

I would characterize the session as being inconsistent with wild swings due to my part with 2 rounds of losing on high counts, and 2 rounds of winning on high counts. Started with $1000, went down to the $800 level while losing on the first high count, pull back to even and up to $1120 on the 2nd high count, losing my entire initial bankroll with the small win of $1120 on the 3rd high count because of over betting on counts of +5 +7, then getting creative and betting 3 or 4 hands of $1000 on a new round and losing them all, getting lucky and winning a few hands on the next $1000 where I made it back to $5000, winning $530 when I should have been betting $100, $150, $200, $500, and $750 respectively with $5000 showing on the table had it been for real. I realize the gig would have been up by that time starting out at an initial bet of $10 staring out, but I don't mind getting a little wild on a BJ sim.

[biggg]

If you play bj for any reasonable period of time you will go through runs where you can't win a hand at high counts. It really is a brutal game.

[bigplayer]

Do you expect to lose big while making minimum bets? Your win/loss percentage does not change very much as the count rises. The player edge from blackjack comes from the 3/2 payoff on blackjack and a higher percentage of winning double downs and more frequent soft doubles. A card counter is almost as likely to lose 5 hand in a row in a high count as he is at a neutral or low count. Sucks when you get 19 and dealer gets 20 or you get 20 and the dealer gets blackjack.

[Three]

Does anyone occasionally find themselves over betting in some situations where the count is real high, but only to see the dealer getting the winning hands?

I don't over bet ever but betting as I should there is nothing worse than getting a heads-up shoe game with an early through the roof count that has you betting max until the cut card only to loss almost every bet. You may be playing against an ace (or even face) upcard every hand or worse have a 5 or 6 dealer upcard and great double and split opportunities only to watch the dealer hit out to beat you repeatedly. Too often another phenomenon of getting that great max number of splits with double downs on some on both spots with max bet to see the dealer hit to 21 on his 5 upcard. Had the dealer busted as was fairly likely the swing would be 24 max bets for the 2 spots. You may be doing great all session except a few of these rounds put you way in the red. That is just the nature of the game. Fortunately the other side of the coin is quite lucrative.

[ohbehave]

Compare to VP where your 4 of a kinds typically keep you in the game. When those hands hit you know you will get paid. In BJ, naturals and doubles keep you in the game, except you can get those hands and still not necessarily get paid. Even worse when the BJs and doubles just don't come. Not hard to see how a single shoe can end in disaster if the BJs and doubles don't show, combined with overbetting.

[ohbehave]

Removed

[Three]

combined with overbetting.

You keep saying over betting but it need not be mentioned. Betting the proper bet every time according to your theoretical advantage suggested by your count has the same phenomenon occurring. You should never over bet so it shouldn't even be in the discussion.

[ohbehave]

Only because it was mentioned in the OP. No doubt some players do it. Only to make the point that it makes a bad outcome worse.

[Three]

Only because it was mentioned in the OP. No doubt some players do it. Only to make the point that it makes a bad outcome worse

Gotcha. I wasn't paying attention to who was posting what and mistakenly assumed you were the OP. Sorry for that but we both make great points about overbetting.

[jbuck]

If you play bj for any reasonable period of time you will go through runs where you can't win a hand at high counts. It really is a brutal game.

This is exactly what happened at a table I was at yesterday. It seemed that every round on multiple shoes (almost all), the dealer was showing a face card or an ace. The guy next to me bought in with $500 and watched his chip count go down to nothing - he was PISSED!

[steveistheman84]

you're still expected to lose more rounds than you win, no matter the count.

[Blitzkrieg]

Do you expect to lose big while making minimum bets? Your win/loss percentage does not change very much as the count rises. The player edge from blackjack comes from the 3/2 payoff on blackjack and a higher percentage of winning double downs and more frequent soft doubles. A card counter is almost as likely to lose 5 hand in a row in a high count as he is at a neutral or low count. Sucks when you get 19 and dealer gets 20 or you get 20 and the dealer gets blackjack.

No I don't expect to lose big while making minimum bets. At least not at the levels I will be playing at when I go to the casino when real money will be at stake. With the counting strategy that I am using it is putting me on the sweet spot everytime as I was seeing high cards coming, it just didn't go in my favor when I am losing by one or two every hand in a hot deck and seeing the dealer get the BJ's, very disheartening but a reality of the game.

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't over bet ever but betting as I should there is nothing worse than getting a heads-up shoe game with an early through the roof count that has you betting max until the cut card only to loss almost every bet. You may be playing against an ace (or even face) upcard every hand or worse have a 5 or 6 dealer upcard and great double and split opportunities only to watch the dealer hit out to beat you repeatedly. Too often another phenomenon of getting that great max number of splits with double downs on some on both spots with max bet to see the dealer hit to 21 on his 5 upcard. Had the dealer busted as was fairly likely the swing would be 24 max bets for the 2 spots. You may be doing great all session except a few of these rounds put you way in the red. That is just the nature of the game. Fortunately the other side of the coin is quite lucrative.

That's what happened while playing the BJ sim when I initially fell on my face losing my starting bankroll of $1000. Within a quarter of a deck in a Double deck game the count went up real high and stayed that way until the cut card and every bet I was putting up was getting clipped by one or two, or I would get a hard hand like a 14 during the hot deck knowing that a potential high card is coming but the dealer is showing 10, with a 10 in the hole, so I have to draw knowing that high cards are coming.

In a BJ sim I don't mind betting a bit bigger during a high count because I want to see just how hard I can push the house based on the count, since I'm using REKO know I want to see just how it is going to handle during a high count because it is potentially going to happen like that in a real casino. Had I been using Hi-Lo count the same result would have happened when I originally went bust, I realize it wouldn't have mattered based on strategy, I just got waxed trying to reach for the stars. I guess I would call it negative variance in a high count. I learned a huge lesson from the BJ sim in that I should not over bet my bankroll, even during high counts. That's the discipline I will have to have with me when I'm in the casino.