Yes because he enjoys losing and choses to do so.Originally Posted by moses
Moses, have you played blackjack for any extended amount of time? I don't care what your count is, losing streaks happen. It is a very small advantage that you are working with as a counter.
By the way tthree i'd also like to add that selling should be also be last resort. If you are invested in something, you need to have done your due diligence as I have and know what you own. Look at Warren buffett and everything he advocates, you think he sells? He holds as long as he can and are you gonna sit here and tell me he doesn't know what he's doing. It's important to lock in profits, but the most important thing is knowing what you own and I know what I own so I am reluctant to sell much if any of my position any time soon and even into the dollars.
"Buy so well, you don’t have to sell. Don’t buy for 10 minutes" - Warren Buffett
"We like to buy businesses; we don’t like to sell them" - Warren Buffett
“Our favorite holding period is forever.” - Warren Buffett
"You can’t do well investing unless you think independently. And the truth is, you are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you. You’re right because your facts and reasoning are right. In the end, that’s what counts. " - Warren Buffett
Last edited by ZenKinG; 02-18-2014 at 11:42 AM.
You talked about big news coming out today causing a huge spike. You missed an opportunity. Look at what happened to ALNY when big news hit on the 13th of January:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=A...=alny;range=3m
The days peak price was 112.57 after closing the previous day at 66ish even though the chart shows 94ish as the days close. Then an up and down drift to 80 over the next month. Notice how the spike is driven by volume (the bar graph at the bottom of the graph).
Look at ELTP after the news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/eltp
Again a big spike fro .35 to .46 and a settling down to .42 at the close. You can expect the same slow drift to about half the spike. Sell and rebuy after a few of these and you have your initial investment out. I am sure you will learn how to time the market with more experience.
Last edited by Three; 02-18-2014 at 02:50 PM.
Eh pennies here and there is not what I'm all about, you seem to be interested more in the trading aspect of stocks. I hope you know that all these little short term gains will kill you come tax time. Short term capital gains are taxed at a normal rate of income tax around 40%. If you're gonna be trading a lot by buying and selling, you're better off putting all your sells into an IRA/retirement account, that way you don't get hit with the constant tax rate and only get taxed way down the road when you decide to withdraw.
For me I'm a long term investor, I look for undervalued companies such as ELTP, do as much due diligence and take my shot at it for a goof amount of tim, even several years. The tax rate if you hold a stock over a year is 15-20% based on your tax bracket. Not to mention there are also ways to lessen your capital gain tax or even completely avoid it.
All in all, I rather be a long term investor, to be a trader you really need to be savvy with charts and the technicals as you just mentioned with "timing" your entry points. To me that is all irrelevant because I'm a long term investor. Of course I can do both, and have a core long term position and day/swing trade back and forth and make money to support my long position but I have much to learn still with trading and that's why the entry points don't really matter to me right now as I'm focused on soley being a long term investor
Last edited by ZenKinG; 02-19-2014 at 10:20 AM.
I was just trying to point out you could have gotten your money back out and hold the same number of shares as you initially had. Good luck if if you think that having all you stock at a 0 investment instead of your initial investment is a bad thing. After a great press release the price usually peaks around 10 or 11am that day and then bounces around between the close the previous day and the peak for a week or so. Looking at the stocks moves today it crashed to the previous days close of .35 before plateauing at the mid point between that and the peak. Nothing is guaranteed but that was pretty predictable. Usually the swings aren't as severe and take more time to shake out. It was a great opportunity to sell 1/3rd at .45ish of your holdings to lock in 2/3rds of the shares at 0 investment and then re-buy them at .35 today. You would have still owned all your shares and recouped 22.2% of your initial investment. If the stock kept going up or you chose not to re-buy then you simply have 2/3rds of your stock holdings with nothing invested. There are ways to offset the income. If you are holding for a long time I am not sure why you aren't using one of the retirement account choices to have your money in.
First of all you totally ignored the whole tax part. You also seem to ignore the income level im at and the age I'm at. It's not like I have as much money as you do; im in a less financially suitable position then you. What if it doesn't retrace? I don't want to lose any shares because again, I have limited shares as it is because I'm not exactly rich right now, so I don't want to take any risks losing any shares. If I had more money, I could swing trade back and forth, but right now I rather just buy, hold, and accumulate, because I also know the potential of this stock and am extremely confident in its long term ability. Selling on the spike and then buying again on the drop would be good if I was in a better financial state, but as of right now in my current situation, I'm also not trying to pay a 40% income tax on my gains at the end of the year by trading back and forth for minimal gains. If i show a capital gain the 40% gonna hit me hard, and it just wouldn't be worth it, unless of course I don't report it, but that's a WHOLE different story and the IRS is not something I would want to mess with. I know what I'm doing and I'm aware of those strategies you mentioned already way before I even invested. It's just that I don't want to employ them, at least not right now in the current stage of my life.
Big deal it pulled back, that's consolidation for you, it's gonna go shoot way back up on bioequivalence results of their second undisclosed abuse resistant drug(morphine/nalterxone most likely), which are almost guaranteed to be superb and this will take place in first week or early second week of march. There will also be a third patent officially awarded to Elite around that timeframe as well and it should be PR'd as well. So look for another spike very soon.
Lastly, the reason it crashed that day, is because the MM(market makers) and shorts are really manipulating it down as much as they can before the next major news weeks ahead. Don't forget this is a penny stock and although a poison pill(to prevent a hostile takeover) was already put in place because it's so undervalued and the CEO and the chairman of the board know that, it's still a penny stock and some manipulation will always take place and they will try to shake out the weak players by taking it down. With more news on the way, the drop was expected, but like I said get ready for the 50s very soon and a big partnership anouncement mid march that I believe can take us to .75-1.00. Rumor is that it's gonna be the CEO's old company, Actavis that will be partnering with ELTP.
Such a great future man, If i knew you had an interest in the markets I would have told you about it when it was at .12, but in my honest opinion anything under a dollar is still a GREAT investment, because this stock has some of the biggest potential and low risk that you will find at such a low price. Ive researched tons and tons of stocks before I landed this one, and I really believe this is a rare gem.
Here's a great summary for any potential serious investor. Just look at the pipeline and what they got going for them, not to mention such a strong management team which is so important especially for a company on the rebound. This company used to trade on the AMEX at over 20.00 a share. This is a comeback story as great as it gets. Nasrat Hakim, CEO joined Elite in August from Actavis and shares have gone from.06 to as high as .45 in less than 6 months. Future is unbelievably bright once they get their patented Abuse Resistant Technology on the market, in which there will be very few players in the billion dollar market and for a huge need in todays society. And aording to the last conference call a couple of days ago, Elite is looking to get 15 ART products on the market, incredible, and they want to do it concurrently, instead of waiting to do one by one. But to do that they will need a big time pharma partner, in which talks are already underway. Here is a link I was talking about.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards...ge_id=97538960
This is a blackjack forum so I won't go anymore into this, but thought I'd bring it up once we got into it a little bit, but I won't spam this thread anymore lol
Last edited by ZenKinG; 02-21-2014 at 12:31 AM.
I did touch on it.
Good luck with your investing. Most young men don't do what they should be doing to secure their future. Penny stocks usually aren't on the options market. That's where I like to make a boatload quick. If you are good at finding stocks that are about to explode on news that will come out it makes invest and hold look like folly. It is very risky though. If you are wrong and it goes the other way you risk losing 100% of your investment as your holdings will expire and need to go above the target point for you to sell at a profit. Once it gets there you make money like you actually own the shares but you only bought options for pennies on the dollar. If it goes the wrong way you have a holding you may not be able to sell before the time expires and you no longer have the option. I am sure you are taking prudent steps to ensure your future.
I've been buried in with working on "the document" and still trying to get some time at the tables in. Reading over where this thread has gone I don't know whether to laugh or to cry. As far as ZenKing's musings go, that's all well and good if you can always find sparsely populated tables together that you can back count two tables at once... I'm sure that's always easy to come up with, right? Hahahaa I have to wonder if he's fully aware of what he is speculating on and making comparisons to. Another thing would be the sorts of tables that he is talking about... those lovely 8 deckers, H17 out of an autoshuffler. These are the only sorts of games that allow wonging in and out like that. We could easily argue also that instead of the difficulty of Hi-Lo, we can simply count only Aces and 5's and to compensate for this we use a set of stilts, a pair of binoculars and count down 5 tables at once! By doing this we can theoretically do as well or better than the guy using a basic count and counting down two tables at once! I mean seriously... Why go to all the trouble to do a full Hi-Lo count if you can simply rent yourself a set of stilts and have a pair of binoculars laying around? This is the problem with public forums though... Now if the casinos see some guy meandering through the casino on a set of stilts and sporting a pair of binoculars they might be onto him, especially if he tries to count down 6 tables instead of just 5. That 6th table just might tip the scales for them to realize you may be up to something!
How often do you have this ideal situation in which you can count down 2 tables at once and wong in without raising any eyebrows? What percentage of your time on the casino floor do you have this opportunity? What is the price paid, the "vig" to have this situation? To count down these two tables at once do you have to play a 8D, H17 game out of an autoshuffler on low stakes tables? There is no such thing as wonging into the vast majority of games I play. How do your methods pan out on a NMSE game or are you restricted and confined to these crappy games in which you can wong in and out of? It becomes very obvious that we play very different games of blackjack and you are willing to play games that I wouldn't bother with. This sounds like a strange statement coming from a guy that plays "marginal" games but when I or someone else says I am willing to play a "marginal" game they are referring to your typical AC game with 6D, S17, DA2 with 1.5/6 and not the sh*tt*est game on the planet that no one in their right mind should be playing, such as those awful 8D, H17 games. The rather high number put out there for hands per hour at these sorts of tables doesn't jive worth a damn. Those are the number of hands per hour that you see heads up with a fast dealer and not a table full of wankers on a low stakes, 8D, H17 game. What I am saying is that there's a lot of holes in what you are throwing out there, ZenKing. Do you always and invariably run across two tables next to each other with only one or two players at them and two very fast dealers to crank out over 100 hands per hour? Just how consistent are these conditions for you? What do you do if these ideal conditions are not available? What then?
As far as demanding "scientific proof" I have provided it. No, there is no sim but there is substantial and overwhelming mathematical evidence of effectiveness and increased PE, which I have provided in several instances. That you have failed to read it or don't understand it is not my fault, I am a professional blackjack player and not your babysitter.
Last edited by Tarzan; 03-09-2014 at 10:16 PM.
Tarzan, I am not speaking for ZenkinG, who your post was directed at, but I do want to address the tracking two tables issue. I track two tables, although I do so by playing one and tracking a second, rather than backcounting both.
Here in the desert, they don't 'manage the tables to full' as the entire east coast seems to. It is not unusual to walk into a local type casino that has three or four blackjack tables open and a total of four or five players. AC, Pa and Conn, would never have this. They 'manage to full' and would not open additional tables until the first was full and 5 or 6 people are standing around waiting to play. This is one of the reasons I made the move west, when I did.
I wasn't tracking two tables routinely back then, but it is just hard to play when you have to wait for, and fight for a spot at the table. Just exiting negative counts, which has always been a part of my game becomes more problematic at full tables. It is not as beneficial to exit, if you can't get to a new game in short order. Also, NMSE is not an issue here in the desert, like it is in AC or Pa, at least at the $25 table level that I play. I am not saying that I am always able track a second table. Sometimes a small place doesn't have enough open and sometimes, on weekends, we too have crowded conditions, but the majority of time, I am able to, without using stilts and binoculars.
Again, I am not speaking for, nor defending ZenkinG. I don't know where he lives and/or plays. Nor do I think tracking multiple tables, should be compared in any way to your attack.
Bjarg, it's a matter of being so buried into this writing project that I've had no time for leisurely writing on here. Add to that the occasion to look over the posts on here and decide that what I would respond with would be too negative, too critical, too overbearing, too something bordering on obnoxious enough to not be posting it. Sometimes you read things on here that there is no suitable response to (I responded to a post last night that I looked at after I wrote it and found it less than uplifting and helpful to the point of wanting to delete it, for example). While I've been writing and organizing files I've also been trying to get enough time at the tables in case I want to buy a helicopter or maybe even a batch of tacos of gnaw upon as I sit in my helicopter... You know, stack up those black chips for a rainy day? It's not a matter of not wanting to be here or partake in the forum and more of a matter of not having enough hours in a day to do all you wish to do.
Last edited by Tarzan; 03-10-2014 at 11:13 AM.
Kj you just have to pick your times to play in the East. I know when and where I can get heads up games. Often there are many empty tables. You must do your scouting. You can't just show up anytime and expect to find what you are looking for. In competitive markets I have table dames managers giving me a special number to call ahead so they can open more tables to sync with when I arrive if necessary. They know if I drive for hours to play at their casino and its crowded I won't be coming back.
Some casinos I am losing sleep to get what I am looking for while other it is while the sun is high in the sky. It depends on the rhythms of the patrons. Just get your scouting in and play the empty tables.
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