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Thread: Risk of ruin calculation

  1. #1


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    Risk of ruin calculation

    Lets say I am going to put in 300hrs of BJ play. I am going to play multiple different games with different strategies to beat them, for example: 6D, 4D, two hands, 1-15 spr, 1-10, penetration. How would I determine my trip RoR for this 300hrs? Is this as easy as I think it is?

    Also, is there a way to estimate my EV and SD.
    Last edited by muckz; 02-12-2014 at 06:53 PM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    Lets say I am going to put in 300hrs of BJ play. I am going to play multiple different games with different strategies to beat them, for example: 6D, 4D, two hands, 1-15 spr, 1-10, penetration. How would I determine my trip RoR for this 300hrs? Is this as easy as I think it is?

    Also, is there a way to estimate my EV and SD.
    Invest in CVCX it will be one of the best investments you will ever make.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtb239 View Post
    Invest in CVCX it will be one of the best investments you will ever make.
    I have it, I want to know my combined RoR when playing multiple different games for x amount of time which totals to a total trip of y. The SD and avg wager would also change drastically from game to game. I don't want to know my EV/risk for each session I play I want to plan ahead and get a more realistic idea of longterm RoR and EV.
    Last edited by muckz; 02-12-2014 at 08:29 PM.

  4. #4
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    As long as you know you are betting optimally in each game, and that each game provides a SCORE you are satisfied with, don't worry about it too much. Just bring a lot more money than you think you need. If you want to know the range of possible results at the end of the trip, you can add up the hourly rate times the number of hours for each game to get the average. To get the standard deviation, you will need to add up the variance for each game (hourly SD squared, times the number of hours) to get the total variance for the trip, then take the square root of that to get the trip SD. That doesn't tell you what you might lose during the trip, but if you just take most of your bankroll you won't have to worry about busting out mid-trip. Trip ruin is expensive and avoidable. You should virtually never bust out mid-trip, since doing so just means you failed to bring enough money.

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