Just received BJA3 and read ch 1. What a joy! This is going to go far too quickly for me!
Just finished ch. 2 about s.d. As you said, it's more technical but still fun to read (and re-read)!
It's the best explanation of s.d. I've ever read.
This is a real joy to read... Thanks for writing it!
I love the pictures of the old newsletters where the articles came from at the beginning of each chapter. How fun to think back to the days when publishing was so much more hands-on (without computers).
Don't worry, a second or even third reading of this text is highly recommended. Then you will still come back and refer to it as a reference, time and again, until it falls apart.Originally Posted by SiMi
"One of these days in your travels, you are going to come across a guy with a nice brand new deck of cards, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not take this bet, for if you do, as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an ear full of cider."
I just finished my First Read of BJA3. Wow, my head is still spinning! There's so much info it's overwhelming...
For me, ch. 13, part 1 seems the most useful (at the moment) and, somewhat surprising. I have wondered about this issue a lot...
I am normally a Rabbit and I concentrated on Table 13.4 as the closest fit for me. If I'm getting this, you calculated the ODP is:
1) TC = ~ -1 with 5 decks remaining (DR) (an RC of -5 for HiLo)
2) TC = ~ -1.5 with 3 DR (an RC of ~ -5)
3) TC = ~ -1 with 1.5 DR (an RC of -1 to -2)
4) TC = ~ +2 with 1 DR (an RC of +2).
The last one is the most surprising and is also very useful!
Trying to boil this down to something practical in RealWorld, it appears my DP (less than optimal) could be -2 until 1 DR and then it jumps to +2 for the last few rounds.
If I'm on the right track, that's pretty eye-opening and sobering...
Helluva book! Thanks!!!
The thing to realize that is not apparent from the sims is you are looking to put a large number of advantage bets down in a juicy shoe. This means an earlier positive situation. You are not looking to get 1 or 2 advantage bets down in a shoe. The day after I reread this chapter, 13, very slowly digesting it as I went I white rabbitted to one of the best shoes I have ever had. I had played a deck or so into maybe 5 shoes and switched again. I had ground out a nice profit despite the lack of advantage situations. About 2 decks in the count gets moderately high. I jump my bet to the middle of my ramp. Then 2 rounds of nothing but low cards came out sending the count through the roof with about 4 decks until the shuffle card. I was playing 2 hands and got nothing but BJs and successful doubles and splits all at my max bet. I surrendered one hand during the rest of the shoe for my only lose. I was red chipping at the time and went from a nice pile of red chips to a much bigger pile of red chips and an even bigger pile of green chips. If I hadn't spent many hours digesting chapter 13 I would have been at another table hoping a non-advantage count would turn around. I hate to say I know I would have done worse because you never really know but if there is a time you can make that leap of faith it is this instance.
Thanks!
I'll read that chapter again. If you stay for the last couple of rounds even though the TC is not >=+2, you might reduce the delay time (except for shuffling) and improve expectations. I imagine that could be accounted for in the algorithms some day. There's a lot to think about in there (and many other chapters). Given that shoe games are now prolific, I would think more research in this area will be done with more interesting and useful results.
I was already aware of SCORE (though I really needed the thrashing to remind me that it is DEFINITIONALLY fixed) and the Ill18/Fab4, of course, are famous and earth-shaking in their significance. Chapter 13 Part 1, however ("Should I Stay or Should I Go?"), hit the nail on the head for an issue that I think about all the time but have not seen any serious work on.
As Tthree says, finding a hot shoe is aided when you leave marginal/cold shoes immediately. But, the definition of marginal/cold had eluded me. One has to consider cover and other practical issues, but it's SO MUCH better to know what you're doing than to just guess at the ODP and make it up as you go.
Last edited by SiMi; 02-13-2014 at 10:33 AM.
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