My year sucks so far. Had an amazing 2013, and now I'm back down to earth.
No, you`re deluding yourself. Being 6 SD on the left side of your EV is clearly wrong. You are not playing the game you think you`re playing. Plain and simple. We`re not talking about 2 or even 3 SD, we are talking about 6 SD! This is a chance in a few millions or more.It's just been worst case scenario. I've crunched the numbers, done sims, I'm playing uncrowded times and good penetration. Just horrible negative variance!
Mistakes in basics? Counting? Betting? Overall game plan? Cheated? Camouflage? Over estimating your EV? Look for something because this is clearly a sign that something is terribly wrong in your approach to the game.
G Man
Maybe I'm miscalculating the standard deviation aspect. It's clearly not as bad as I originally thought. I know for a fact that the game I'm playing is the right one. Like I said I've run sims, have memorized b.s. and full indices, can estimate decks plus or minus 2 cards. Also no camo and my betting ramp is pretty straight forward.
I clearly just did something really weird in the arithmetic for the original post.
I wish I knew how to calculate SD for BJ. My January was the best one I ever had and I played 24 sessions (one 17, lost 7), for a total of 23 hours, playing $10 min 6D. H17 game and won some $5200 spreading $10 to $150 (sometimes via 2 hands of $75 each). I would think I am very lucky, that its probably 2 plus SD and I cannot expect to repeat it.
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