Cvcx reko win/loss question

**MercySakesAlive** · 01-22-2014, 03:25 PM

I want to know what percent advantage I have on the house at each particular count using REKO, so I ran a sim set up like this:

I used the betting by depth feature in CVCX to look at a 6 deck H17, RSA, DAS game and ran the sim 1000 Millions rounds.

I set every number in decks 2 -6 to zero to "get them out of the way". (I am only interested in exploring the percent advantages in the first deck dealt for this sim.)

Then I set up the first deck so that each count from -12 to 7 was designated 1 through 20.

I expected to see the numbers in the WIN/LOSS column to gradually increase with each count number but they sort of wander around in an upward slope.

Can you help me understand why? Here is the results, i typed in the correlated REKO count numbers (IRC -20). Thanks.

first deck in 6 deck.png

**MercySakesAlive** · 01-22-2014, 04:08 PM

I reran the sim with 10,000 Million rounds and the numbers worked out the way I expected them to, that is each number was greater than the last number.

**Nyne** · 01-22-2014, 07:59 PM

If you are interested in the reason why this is the case, it comes down to small sample size. You figured that out to some degree, but I'll help you with the reasons why it was too small. First, if you are only looking at the first deck out, just set the pen to 1/6. Any hands you deal beyond that point, but then ignore, count towards your rounds simulated but not toward your results. Second, with something like hi lo, your true count "bins" will contain 5 or 6 different possible running counts that give the same TC, so you'll rack up hands for each bin 5 or 6 times faster than you will when you are tracking by running count. These two factors together mean you will need something like 25 or so times more hands than you would to get comparable data on a hi lo game that only deals 1 deck out of 6. The first of those two factors is in your control with sim settings, the second really is not.