Originally Posted by
Bodarc
Kelly betting does not guarantee that you will win or lose. Neither is it applicable in the short run. It is a balance between risk of ruin and maximizing your growth over time.
You did not say what strategy your are using but lets assume hi-lo with full indexes on the game you described. If your minimum bet is 1 unit and your bankroll is 250 units, your risk of ruin is approximately 68%. That is to say that in the short run, with a 1 to 20 spread, just a losing streak of 13 top bets ( not necessarily in a row) will wipe you out.
But, if you take risk of ruin out of the equation and don't consider optimum bets, and if you can replace the 250 units if it is lost, then you just bet whatever spread you want ----- hail Mary! As long as you realize that on average, your chance of going broke before doubling your 250 units is very large.
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