Someone should mention how slow this approach of table-hopping is.
An amateur like this betting $15 a hand on perhaps 20 hands an hour
projects to an e.v. of around $4 per hour.
He is likely to rather quickly run out of patience or shoe leather.
Not too mention he will hover over (one) table and stare, and maybe
even move his lips.
Originally Posted by 1plus1equals3
Well I started with a BR of $4300, which was a complete joke and miraculous long shot for what I was attempting (fulltime play).
Most players have a more reasonable situation, and a bankroll that is at least somewhat replenishable or that they can add to from other funds as they go along.
But, the very generic, unscientific rule is that you should have 100 of your top bets. In your case that would make for a top bet of $10 and there just isn't much you can do with that except wong in to positive counts.
If you have unlimited time on your hands, you can do as KJ said and wong the $10 bets and when you double your BR go to $20, etc., etc., but you will probably need to be geographically near several stores to make this a viable attack simply because of the amount of hours it will take.
I think a better approach would be working and saving until you have at least a 5k BR and thus a $50 top bet. You won't live on this income but it will be a nice supplement to what you already (I hope) have.
1+1=3
Howdy!
You say you don't want to make it a career but you want to have a "slight advantage" over the casino "when I go." Having an advantage in BJ over the casino with counting doesn't depend on whether you are a "professional/career" counter. It depends on betting more when you have a statistical advantage, betting as little as possible when you don't AND doing this over the fabled LONG HAUL. You should get CV and run some sims with 5,000-10,000 hands and see how useless that small sample size is for predicting an outcome. Then, realize it will take you a LONG time to even get to 10,000 hands (at least 100 hours and probably a lot more realistically). That's what you're up against with the concept of "LONG HAUL."
If you're NOT planning to do it for the long haul (whether full time or part time), you might as well just learn BS, learn how to spot good games and settle for about 1/2% DISadvantage and have some fun.
If you are planning to do this for the long haul (whether full time or part time), you will need to know your stuff and do some research, including buying CV and reading LOTS of books. If you're in it for the long haul:
Reading your OP carefully, it looks to me as if you actually have $1,000 as a "research fund" that will enable you to try some ideas before committing a large bankroll. If that's the case, I'd suggest you find the lowest table minima you can and practice counting, betting, camo, etc. until you find an approach that works for you that is realistic. $1,000 might be adequate (but is low) for RESEARCH at a $3 table in a local Indian joint where your top bet is $25 and the table conditions are favorable and slow enough for you to keep up.
You'll get a lot of practice if you PLAY (almost) ALL in shoe games for 20-30 hours using a smallish spread of 8:1 or so while you work out the bugs in your approach. Dealer errors and careful money management can help you make your small Research Fund last longer. You can then test the waters with pitch games to see how it goes. You need A LOT OF PRACTICE and you could easily lose your Research Fund. You might get lucky and actually grow your Research Fund but I wouldn't count on it.
There's a helluva lot to learn and you said you're new to the BJ community. I assume you mean counting. You need to be able to quickly spot good games vs. crap and heat vs. marketing and deal with the emotions of losing when the TC is +12 and learning how to rathole and chat while playing, etc., etc. You'll need many months of practice before you're even close to ready for starting with a real BR.
If you're new to this, starting at $15 a hand with $1,000 is, frankly, insane. Best of luck!
Last edited by SiMi; 01-14-2014 at 09:54 AM.
When I first became "aware", I pulled aside $600 of seed money which I called my bankroll. My stakes were obviously very small. Thru trial and tribulation, that initial start has now become very sufficient to play at very high stakes - though I choose to keep it more moderate levels in line with my locale. The point is - it can be done. KJ managed to do it while apparently living off of it - how he managed that is beyond me - kudos to him. In my case, my regular activities were more than adequate to pay my bills - accordingly, I never touched a dime of my bankroll until it hit 30k or so. It is significantly larger today, And I routinely use a portion of funds for extras, though not for bills.
Thanks to all the replies. I will keep practicing before I make my first trip to the cheap seats ($3-$5).
When did you guys know that you were ready (if that makes sense)? I have a table with shoe and I have some friends come over and deal and count. I've been seriously practicing for a month, but I've known BS for years and I've dabbled in counting for a while now.
Last edited by 1plus1equals3; 01-14-2014 at 10:30 AM.
The best way to play a small bankroll such as you have is to play single deck that pays 3:2 on blackjack. Use $5 units, or $10 units if you don't mind taking a big chance. Playing lousy 8 deck games just isn't worth it and if better games aren't available... best of luck to you.
I also have a story similar to Freightman. I had been trying to make a go with my liquid assets of about $10K. I considered it my BR but was really only comfortable losing about $6K of it so maybe that was more accurately my BR. I would win a few thousand and hit a bad patch and give it back. Then I would examine my game to improve it.I never got behind but had my profits pretty much wiped out. this happened 3 times. Then I totally retooled to try something different. I took out $800 for the experiment as a trip BR and money to try this new twist. It makes me laugh now because it was so small compared to what I feel I must enter a casino with today. I never needed to add money to it and ran it into $40K in a year and a half. There was a lot of skill to getting to that far ahead but knowing what I know now I was so unbelievably lucky to not get wiped out. Every big loss was sandwiched between two big wins. My $10K or $6K that was my original BR is not even considered as part of my BR anymore. I even returned the $800 seed money for the new twist. I have upped the stakes and several thousand dollar swings are the norm in the short term. Downswings have hit up to $12K but I still see the BR growing in general. It was just so lucky to have the early swings structured the way they were. As you can see a few do hit the Hail Mary and live to tell about it. The vast majority of those that didn't make it are no doubt civilians that don't post. Very few have stories to tell like KJ, Freightman and I do. I would be willing to bet we all feel we worked very hard to make it (we never felt we knew enough and just kept learning. Too many think you can learn it all in a few weeks) but good fortune was the biggest factor. Discipline is probably the most important quality to have.
Last edited by Three; 01-14-2014 at 01:14 PM.
If you're still reading replies, I would look at this a little differently from what I've read here. You stated that you are doing this for fun and just want to play with an edge over the house. In that case ROR is not that important. For those of us who are making a living doing this it is the most important thing of all. I ran a sim for 8 decks H17 DAS. You didn't mention DAS but if you are playing 8 decks and can't double after split you might want to find another casino. 80% penetration is great.
If this is for fun, you won't have much fun watching tables for a TC=+3. Instead, just sit down at the beginning of the shoe or watch the first round to see if it is at all positive. As long as it's above zero, sit down. I hope they have $5 tables. If all you can find is $10, you can still try it. Here is how I would bet. $5 or table min TC<1, $10 when TC=1, $40 when TC=2, $60 when TC>3. Most people on here will say that is way to aggressive and you will likely lose the $1000. I'm assuming you are ok losing it. With this betting schedule you will average $5 per hour. If you play for 4 hours it would take a negative 3 standard deviation loss (happens less than 1% of the time) to wipe out your BR. You will accomplish your goal of playing at an advantage to the house and you have a 23% chance of making $500 in 4 hours. The most likely result is you'll make about 25 bucks and if you get rated earn a free dinner. If playing Blackjack and getting free dinner plus your gas money sounds like fun, give it a try. If you lose, you'll probably lose less than half of your BR.
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