Starting Up

**1plus1equals3** · 01-13-2014, 09:31 PM

Hey Guys,
I am new to the BJ community, so please excuse my stupidity. I was wondering what I can expect by starting out with only $1000 BR (I am using the term bankroll loosely. I guess its more of a 'trip BR'. I can have a bigger bankroll once I get more comfortable and confident with my play). I was going to wong in and out on +3 TC and -1 TC. I am using the HiLo system and plan to average $15 a hand (I've now been convinced that the smallest table bet possible is best), adjusting my bets with the count. I was hoping to get some pointers (how much to change my bet with TC, should I even think about heat with such low betting) and wondering what I can expect (going bankrupt, making $50-100 a session).

Any suggestions will help.

Edit: I understand that ROR will be great with $1000. I am not trying to make a career, I just want to have a slight advantage over the casino when I go.

Edit: When I make my trip, I will be sticking to the smallest possible tables.

Edit: Game is h17, 8 dk, 3-2 BJ, 80% pen, DAS, Double any number (I hope to find a single or double deck game)

**hitthat16** · 01-13-2014, 09:42 PM

What kind of game? How many decks? Hit or stand soft 17? Penetration?

Don't worry about heat betting red.

Don't expect to make $100-$200 a session.

**1plus1equals3** · 01-13-2014, 10:05 PM

8 deck, H17, the dealers usually give 80% penetration

**muckz** · 01-13-2014, 10:34 PM

Very rough estimates
No wonging play all EV/HR <7$, ROR >60%

For your wonging method ev/hr doesnt get much better, ROR goes down a bit.

There are better ways to grow bankroll.

Muckz

**steveistheman84** · 01-13-2014, 10:46 PM

the house edge on that game is around .63%. since each true count increases by .5%, at a true count of +1, you're still at a -.13% disadvantage, and at a true of +2 would yield a .37% advantage. for proper bankroll management, you are supposed to divide your bankroll up into units and bet 1 unit for each .5% advantage and for <+2 you should ideally bet 0. in your case, I'd just find the smallest table minimum and use that as your betting unit, and wong in and out more aggressively. +2=1 unit, +3=2 units, +4=3 units, etc. and cap your bet at what ever you feel comfortable with.

**1plus1equals3** · 01-13-2014, 11:23 PM

Muckz- Thanks for you stats. One day I might be willing to use a bigger BR, but I just want to make it a hobby as of right now.

Steve- Thanks for the info. After looking into the math, youre absolutely right. I still would have been giving my money away at +1 TC. I appreciate all your pointers

**steveistheman84** · 01-13-2014, 11:38 PM

ideally for your br it'd be +2=$.66, +3=$1.66, +4=$2.66, +5=$3.66, +6=$4.66, >+6=$5.00 (cap). should give you an idea of how aggressive you have to be and how much you're forced to overbet when starting out. you're pretty much going to be completely at the mercy of variance. hope you run good.

**hitthat16** · 01-14-2014, 12:02 AM

Forgot to comment on the $1,000...

My minimum bet is usually $5, and my last session I dropped a grand before recovering. If you dropped that grand you'd be done. Just keep that in mind.

**MidniteToker** · 01-14-2014, 03:55 AM

Originally Posted by 1plus1equals3

One day I might be willing to use a bigger BR, but I just want to make it a hobby as of right now.

Flip a coin. If it comes up heads, give up the idea and don't play. There, I likely saved you $1000, and I gave you better odds than what your idea gives you.

**Three** · 01-14-2014, 05:50 AM

If you must play...Wait for a count of +4 or higher, then wong in and flat bet $40 or $50 bets. Don't play any counts less than +4. Probably still a very high risk of ruin but you will have a decent shot at growing your BR.

**muckz** · 01-14-2014, 07:49 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

If you must play...Wait for a count of +4 or higher, then wong in and flat bet $40 or $50 bets. Don't play any counts less than +4. Probably still a very high risk of ruin but you will have a decent shot at growing your BR.

This is probably your best chance but, waiting for high TC's in 8D I would wager on you losing your mind before you grow your bankroll past 2000.

Muckz

KJ · 01-14-2014, 07:50 AM

Originally Posted by steveistheman84

the house edge on that game is around .63%. since each true count increases by .5%, at a true count of +1, you're still at a -.13% disadvantage, and at a true of +2 would yield a .37% advantage. for proper bankroll management, you are supposed to divide your bankroll up into units and bet 1 unit for each .5% advantage and for <+2 you should ideally bet 0. in your case, I'd just find the smallest table minimum and use that as your betting unit, and wong in and out more aggressively. +2=1 unit, +3=2 units, +4=3 units, etc. and cap your bet at what ever you feel comfortable with.

Boy, I don't agree with ANY of the numbers in this post, but to explain why would kind of hijack this thread and the whole $1000 (unrealistic) BR thing. But let's just say if you were properly bankrolled, this approach is weak, especially for an 8 deck game.

**1plus1equals3** · 01-14-2014, 08:16 AM

Thanks for all the pointers. Again, I realize that I will probably loose $1000. But I'm figuring, if I go to the casino, why not try to come out ahead?

On a side note, did everyone here start with a large BR? And if I started playing more, what is a suitable BR to start with? I figured $5k would be good but everyone here makes that sound way to low.