You would need to adjust the insurance index if you were getting less than 2:1.Originally Posted by muckz
If you meant that you put up the insurance bet and take the full loss if it losses but then if it wins you only get half the payout for it or 1 1/2 , that definitely wouldnt be profitable. I am not sure how often you win an insurance bet , but it is probably not too much more than 1/3 the time, like maybe 35 or 36% of time. If you think of it like a separate bet not related to your blackjack hand, how could a payout of 1 to 1 or even 3 to 2 cover the near 2 losses you will get for every insurance bet win. Maybe at an extremely high TC it would work if you knew exactly how much you were going to get, but not realistic.
Like everyone said it is one of the most profitable scavengers if you get the full payout. And you ideally like bjarg said want someone betting big, you dont want to be betting 500 and placing insurance on someones hand betting 10 or 25.
But realistically it is not often possible or worth more trouble than the benefit even when you get full payout. There is often misunderstanding with other scavenger plays like doubles or splits that sometimes are much more straightforward than the insurance bet to regular gamblers. So you really have to know that they understand the terms and are not going to stiff you. They just see the dealer take their bet if he has a blackjack and then basically hand back your insurance bet to you with his bet that he lost! You can see how someone who doesnt think of the two bets separately would object. So ideally you want someone betting big but that you know understands whats going on, like maybe a ploppy friend.
And then there is the issue of being noticed by the casino, what could be more blatant of a move then not taking even money with small bets and then suddenly insuring all hands even other peoples. There are a very few casinos who let you insure more than half your bet to the full bet or even the table max, that could be very profitable. And is the exact same thing as insuring other peoples hands but without any possible confusion.
I think you could, but you'd have to have a bigass index. I wouldn't be letting anybody jack half the profits though. maybe only take insurance from people that bet a big amount. actually, no, I don't think you could beat the insurance bet unless your really deep into the deck, or you have an advanced count.
Last edited by steveistheman84; 01-03-2014 at 02:53 PM.
big dog in charge
Not quite the same thing IMO. The insurance bet would be more like an after the cards are dealt side bet, and I see ploppies trying to play side bets for other players all the time. But from a practical viewpoint, I can't see an AP getting away with such a move more than once or twice before getting the heave-ho.
I guess this is one of those lines KJ talks about that many are uncomfortable crossing. Many are APs that make money employing legal and ethical approaches to beating the casino. KJ stumbles over the ethical aspects of intentionally seeking out weak dealers to hole card. I can't imagine going to the casino to make money from the casino and trying to sucker money out of unwise players. If they offer a sucker deal for them I might take it or I might not but I would never try to impose a sucker deal on another player. I am not there to con people or take advantage of them. My game is strong enough that I don't need to cheat or con others to get my payday. That is not what I mean when I use the term AP even though it may fit the simplest definition of the term.
I think it is +EV to get along with the pit and other players. I am fine allowing other players to bet my side bets if the pit is OK with it. I don't expect anything for it but sometimes if a big payoff hits I get a chip thrown my way. I have had people try paying me for advice that worked out very well for them but I refuse to take that. I just remind them it could have about as easily gone the other way. If they keep insisting I might give it to the dealer if I have not been winning (which would have me not tipping). Of course this is usually a red chip. If it were something like black or purple I would probably keep it I guess. So far I haven't had to test myself with that amount.
Last edited by Three; 01-04-2014 at 08:13 AM.
So maybe your morality has a price tag? A red chip has you valiantly refusing the offer or even more chivalrously giving it to the dealer, but a black or purple may change your outlook on whether your sage advice is worth payment? I'm not judging as to whether accepting payments from other players is right or wrong, I don't think actions which are legal are up to me to deem moral for another person. To each his own on that. But waffling on ones principles based on a monetary value would tend to be the very definition of unethical.
What I said was I would be more tempted to take the black or purple and hadn't been tested yet. I honestly don't know what I would do until the situation arrived. I surely would be very tempted to take it rather than give it to the dealer after many attempts to return it. I would not be certain what I would do until it happened. I have been given large denomination chips for heaters using dice control. I kept every one of those but I kept the small ones at the craps table as well. That is not me giving someone advice that could go either way. That is a hard to develop skill at changing the odds of the game for all at the table. Many times these donations included contact information in hopes of betting on my rolls again another day.
I was not giving anyone sage advice. I was pointing out as KJ has about hole carding that I am not comfortable trying to take advantage of fellow players as described in this thread. Then I described what I am comfortable with just as KJ did on hole carding. I never gave any advice or judged anyone else just as KJ did. Like I said there is a pretty good chance I would accept a large denomination chip from a sober player that kept refusing to take it back. I am happy to give advice for free and would slide it back the first few times but if it was insistently returned every time I doubt the dealer would end up dropping it.
Last edited by Three; 01-05-2014 at 04:45 AM.
My first time to Vegas. Playing bj lost everything I brought ( definitely gambling then). This gentleman came by and started to play my spot, because I happened to sit next to his girlfriend/wife. He was playing chunky green/black. Every time he won he gave me a few red chips, since it was my seat. By end of the shoe I was up a few hundred bucks. I have no problem accepting his money. If he's welling, why not?
If casino is welling to poorly train someone and not protecting their games, I have no problem making money off their mistakes. I play within the "rules" that has been set up by both sides to be "fair."
Agreed that scavenging insurance bets can be very profitable, however, that's one play that's going to attract a lot of attention. I prefer saying to the guy next to me - if you don't want your doubles, I'll take them - seems to be a lot more natural - I even have a couple of guys who think its great karma asking me to participate in their doubles.
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