noobs that are afraid of math

**steveistheman84** · 01-02-2014, 09:37 AM

here's a post for all the noobs out there. there's a lot of formulas out there for optimal betting and i think that formulas with complex math equations scare off a lot of people and lead them into unknowingly playing a losing game with either under betting or over betting (i think it's usually under betting). you might have heard of full/half/quarter kelly betting and don't understand the equations. well you don't have to (although it is good to)! for a rough 1/4 kelly, simply divide your br by 1,000 to get your unit size. whatever the true count is, subtract 1 and that's how many units to bet i.e: tc +6= 5 units. cap your max bet at 5 units. when spreading to 2 hands, take what would be your normal 1 hand bet, add 50%, and split into 2 bets. ie a normal bet of $20 could split into 2 hands of $15. and remember that your minimum bet is not a unit. your min bet should ideally be 0, but if that's not possible, it should be .25 or .5 of a unit. full units are strictly for positive ev situations. each time you win or lose 5k, you should add or subtract $5 from your betting unit, but stop downsizing when your br is at 10k, otherwise you're wasting your time (if your br is 5k, act as if it is 10k). that's it. also forget about all that camoflauge bs and rathole, rathole, rathole!

**steveistheman84** · 01-02-2014, 11:12 AM

and for unsimplified full kelly: (.005/1.3225) x br= betting unit

**mofungoo** · 01-02-2014, 02:26 PM

Or one could get CVCX for less than $100 and be more accurate with the betting.

**steveistheman84** · 01-02-2014, 03:08 PM

yeah, you could do a lot more than that too. the purpose of this thread is to help out bj players that are just getting started, and are still shying away from all that bj jargon that goes on in this forum. i mentioned nothing of std devs and co-variance and all that s*** for a reason. just trying to help the greenhorns.

**SiMi** · 01-02-2014, 03:56 PM

Hi,
This is very helpful. Thanks!
Let's say your BR is $25,000 so your 'unit' is $25 and you want 1/4 Kelly. Let's say you think you can get away with a 10:1 spread on some shoe game.
You say that your 'unit' is not the same as the minimum bet. Ideally, the min bet is $0, but let's say you're playing in slightly neg. EV for some reason and so you're forced to bet table min.
In that case, you say the bet should 1/4 or 1/2 of a "unit." With a "unit" of $25, that would be $4.25 to $12.50. In the real world of chips, somewhere between $5 and $15. So, if you're playing at a $10 table, I'm guessing you would say to bet $10 as your "minimum bet" even though your 'unit' is $25. And, similarly, at a $5 table, you'd bet $5 as your minimum, I guess...
Anyway, if the table min bet is $10, would you calculate your MAXIMUM bet at 10 times the MINIMUM (10 x $10 = $100) or 10 times your UNIT (10 x $25 = $250)?
If the latter, the eye would see a spread of 25:1 ($10 - $250) and that could be trouble. If, however, you only bet $100 max bet, you'd only be betting a 4:1 spread of your UNIT.
I guess what I'm asking is how do the ideas of 'unit bet' and 'min. bet' fit in with the ideas of 'spread' and 'max bet'?
Thanks again!

**Three** · 01-02-2014, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by SiMi

I guess what I'm asking is how do the ideas of 'unit bet' and 'min. bet' fit in with the ideas of 'spread' and 'max bet'?
Thanks again!

Are we about to get into the debate about what a unit is again. I am in the camp that a unit is your smallest bet put out at an advantage and your min bet is the smallest bet you think you can get away with in a negative EV situation that you choose to play. As for spread I think the min bet to max bet is your spread. Then there is your supermax bet. It is the most you think you can get away with in those over the top high counts with lots of excess aces. Your BR, casino tolerance to bet size etc will define the supermax bet. You can go a long time without betting the supermax.

**steveistheman84** · 01-02-2014, 05:47 PM

yeah, pretty much what tthree said. the min bet DOES factor into your spread. if it didn't you'd pretty much only be capable of a 1-5 spread which won't be big enough to beat a "play-all" double deck game or shoe. with a 1-10 spread in a shoe game, you'd spread from a $10 or $15 min bet to your $125 max bet. you could possibly use $15 for -1 through +1, and $10 for -2 and lower which would end up being more of a 1-12 spread (although I'd recommend using the restroom at -2). hope that answers it.

**steveistheman84** · 01-02-2014, 06:25 PM

and tthree, you're gonna have a stroke if you're getting fired up about "the unit debate", which doesn't sound like a debate, but more of an honest question from a novice. this is the general bj forum (the free one). I'd expect it to be filled and refilled with novice questions until the whole thing's a paysite. don't get me wrong, I still have a ton of respect for you and still use the side running count for pitch games that you recommended. jes' sayin', maybe ease up a little.