Are participating in Blackjack tournaments a bad idea for Card Counters? Ive been pretty successful in my short career just not sure if i should enter in fear of being discovered.
I don't know a bunch about BJ tournament play -- but from what I do know -- it is quite different than actual (card-counting) blackjack. "Normal" blackjack you're only competing against the dealer over an 'infinite' period of time, doesn't matter how other players at your table do. In tournament BJ, sometimes you need to make the incorrect BS play to get more money on the table, since you are playing against these people. (ie: It's the last round, you need $200 more to advance to the next round. If you don't win another $200, then you're outta the tournament. If you win the $200, you advance. BS says to stay 14v6...but if you need that extra money, you'll double down 14v6.)
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
when I played the tournaments I played basic card counting strategies except once in a while I would put out more on last hand. I did well in the tournaments with basic card counting strategies assuming that in this way overall I would have the most chips.
I would let the others do the fancy stuff expecting that they would make mistakes and out do themselves.
other players were confused with my straight play, they did not understand my theory I think, they did not understand why I did not do the fancy stuff.
there are books explaining tournament strategies, somewhat complicated I think. some say they are helpful. I really don't know.
I think the basics are covered already. You are not playing against the dealer so counting is of little to no value. I know a very good tournament player that has lost when he should have won by basing moves on the count. The tournament is not a long run thing which is what counting is based on. It is a VERY short run thing. Position and knowing how to use various rule variations between tournaments is the most important thing. You are playing for swings or to maintain the status quo depending on where your chip stack lies relative to others. Making a move when your in position to bet last is the best way. At least betting after the people you are trying to pace or catch. You may be betting small hoping the dealer will wipe out everyones big bets or betting big to catch a leader that bet small and hope you both win. Covariance is a big factor in tournaments as those that don't bust their hands are fairly likely to win or lose the hand together depending on how the dealer faired. The odd playing decisions to fit your needs was covered. If you need to win when your opponent loses and you both have stiffs that you would stand on you would then have to hit on the last hand. Even that 16v6. The dealer busting causing you both to win does you no good. You MUST play for you beating a dealer pat hand allowing you to win while your opponent loses. So as you can see bet sizing becomes strategic when you are in position making that aspect of counting moot at least for some hands. Playing decisions must fit your needs when it comes down to the wire. Having the best chance of winning the hand does you no good if the only way to win it has you losing the tournament. A small likelihood of winning that hand is best if it gives you the best chance to win or move on.
To answer your question more directly, I wouldn't worry about your tournament play getting you red flagged. My friend who is a great tournament player was thrown out of a tournament for having been flagged as a counter. He had gotten in the Griffin book back in the day and could have been flagged by the specific casino chain history. Anyway partially into the tournament he got DQ'ed for being a professional card counter. I have never heard of this happening other than this instance and he plays in tournaments regularly. The tournament officials insisted it wouldn't be fair to the other invited tournament players if they allowed a professional to play. Some of the best tournaments are by invite only. Bigger prizes and a smaller field to compete against. I had some regular tournament pros say there have never been a tournament with a 6 figure payout. They exist but are by invite only. The benefits of playing rated are not just free play, free food and lodging.
Last edited by Three; 12-24-2013 at 06:02 AM.
Counting is habitual if you are a CCer so you don't stop in tourneys. Granted, the edge gained is very minimal but many events are won by a difference of $2.50 so I put the small edge to use. I do use smaller bet ramps in tournaments because your effective BR is what's in front of you (you can't buy any more chips) and you're eliminated if it's gone.
Most I've won in a tourney is 30k (Frontier). A good friend of mine won 100k on two separate occasions (Stardust and Riviera) and another acquaintance won a million dollars at the old Las Vegas Hilton. Sadly, he committed suicide a few years later.
I don't think any kind of long term approach to tournaments can be used. Especially so, if you're a tournament junkie because the formats are never the same and neither are the competitors at all the different venues. More important than the count are things like how your BR compares to opponents and last hand bet position.Originally Posted by mhb
If it's the last hand and the only way you can advance is by doubling down your hard twenty (because you don't have the required equal amount for splitting) you do it and pray for an Ace. The only exception to that would be in a "live money" event meaning you would lose real dollars if not catching an Ace.
my theory was that thee is a long run on tournaments. the more tournaments you play and the closer to card counting you play then the more money and chips you will have. this bias of more chips will show up on individual tournament sessions.
also what about considering that by deviating from card counting you will be losing much in the play and this will harm you bankroll. the loses of deviated play can add up substantially over many tournaments, if you don't come into the money. also the stress factor, how sure can you be that deviations from card counting are advantageous overall when taking into consideration the wins of prize money.
I had good results with this theory. played some 25 tournaments and came in the money 9 time with little damage to my br.
my theory is a minority view. simulations might be helpful.
I understand in general what you all are saying that exact play
with deviations is superior to card counting play in tourneys.
I guess I am in a different financial status.
I have ror to be concerned with my br.
do you give any thought to what these deviation plays will
do to your br. do you have a separate br for tourneys.
has your tourney br been in jeopardy.
does ror come into play at all?
Regarding your ROR questions, there are two kinds of ROR to consider:
- ROR at the table for which the consequence is not advancing to the next round or winning less of the purse, if at the final table
- ROR of your AP or tournament entry fee bankroll, for which the consequence is not being able to continue your AP activities.
The latter, is of course more devastating. They are different but still related and making better plays at the table will improve both because you will finish in the money more often and you will win more when you do.
Tournaments are a very high variance endeavour. Typically, even a skilled player will fail to cash in several, or even many, tournaments between payouts but, when they payouts come, they can be quite large. Entry fees can vary wildly as well. Based on the structure of the tournament, the size of the prize pool relative to the entry fees, the typical skill level of the competition and your own skill level, it is possible to estimate the overall EV and variance of a tournament for yourself. You can then choose to play only those events that are +EV for you. If you're in a position to get comped in, then it's guaranteed +EV.
Having said all that, I would not recommend trying to make a living from tournament play alone. I would consider it as a supplement to your normal AP activities. You asked if by own BR has ever been at risk. The answer to that is "no", mainly because I only play about 10-15 events a year and the entry fees are relatively small. In the range of $200 to $750. Even as a recreational AP, I can pay this rate of tournament entries and expenses from my other AP winnings. I have, however, also had some good success in the tournaments themselves and I can say that I have made more playing tournaments than from any other AP activity.
As implied above, ROR at the table can further be divided into two sub categories:
- ROR in a preliminary round.
The consequence is immediate elimination from the round. Other than its immediateness, this is no different than simply not finishing in an advancing position. That is, if you fail to advance with $10,000 on the table or $0, it doesn't matter. Failure is failure. Given that all failures are equal in this regard, you make plays that increase your chance of overall success (i.e. advancing) without regard to the potential severity of the failure. Having said this, there is still some balance of risk and reward. You want to save your big bets for when they are needed and when success will accomplish someething. You also want to get the most bang for your buck by making big moves late in the round and by betting only as much as you need to accomplish your immediate goal. Sometimes this leaves you with enough left over for a second chance.- ROR at the final table
The consequence of ruin at the final table, is that you will win only whatever the lowest remaining prize amount is. If you are last, then you have nothing at all to lose by trying to move up. Things can't get any worse. If you are in a middle position, then you have to weigh the consequences of dropping down vs the reward of moving up by calculating the EV of your move(s). You do this by estimating the probabilities of each possible outcome and multiplying them by the prize amounts for each result. Sometimes it is better EV to defend the position you have than to try to move up. Ego comes into play here, because some value the prestige of winning the tournament over the EV associated with the best move for their position. If you play a lot of tournaments, then the EV should be more important to you.
Last edited by Gronbog; 12-24-2013 at 12:54 PM.
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