recent ordeal and loss of confidence, need help

[Coyote]

mhb,

Why are you playing blackjack? If it is just to have something to do during retirement then you need to pull WAY Back! If you are trying to build your bank quicker then be prepared to lose everything. Life is so very short, if I was in your position I might just go full Kelly myself!

Best of luck to you!
Coyote

[Intermediate]

OP - If you're playing DD and the pen is really 80%, use a 1-8 spread or 1-2x6. Seems like you are overbetting, but it might depend on whether you consider you BR replenishable. I would consider lowering your minimum and spread to $20-$160.

[SiMi]

mhb

I think ZeeBabar has nailed it. Read his comment about shoe vs. pitch games carefully. IMHO, he's exactly correct. I don't think you'll last long at pitch games betting this way even if your BR could take it.

You will lose less and have better spread and better longevity if the rules and pen are decent at the shoe games. If you're retired, you have time to play the shoe games to get to the good shoes and your wheel chair will get you preferred seating and you can mini-Wong when the count goes bad. (One guy I know in a wheelchair "falls asleep" every now and then). The mins will be lower, more suited to your current BR. You can gradually build your BR until it's more suited to a $25 table. It seems like the best choice by far to me...

If you're just playing for fun, the shoe games can be a lot of fun if your head is right about the people and the lower max bets will help your stress a lot. If you're trying to make serious money as a disabled, retired solo, it's going to be tough with your bankroll and situation. I hope it's more for fun and you can get by on your retirement incomes no matter how the AP goes...

[22 Dreams]

On a serious note, I too am wondering what Ouchez is seeing that I am not. He is a very insightful guy, so I am not questioning his intuition, just wondering what I am missing....again.

You didn't miss anything. The OP has been open and honest about his situation in previous posts and I know for a fact that he is telling the truth.

[mhb]

mhb

I think ZeeBabar has nailed it. Read his comment about shoe vs. pitch games carefully. IMHO, he's exactly correct. I don't think you'll last long at pitch games betting this way even if your BR could take it.

You will lose less and have better spread and better longevity if the rules and pen are decent at the shoe games. If you're retired, you have time to play the shoe games to get to the good shoes and your wheel chair will get you preferred seating and you can mini-Wong when the count goes bad. (One guy I know in a wheelchair "falls asleep" every now and then). The mins will be lower, more suited to your current BR. You can gradually build your BR until it's more suited to a $25 table. It seems like the best choice by far to me...

If you're just playing for fun, the shoe games can be a lot of fun if your head is right about the people and the lower max bets will help your stress a lot. If you're trying to make serious money as a disabled, retired solo, it's going to be tough with your bankroll and situation. I hope it's more for fun and you can get by on your retirement incomes no matter how the AP goes...

the 6 deck shoes are continuous shuffle so they are no good.
i'm forced to play $25 min 2 deck games with good penetration.
my br is $14,000 not replenishible.
here is a compromise from all replies:

when I have the edge I go to 2 hands at $75 or $100
if I win this or these hands I go to betting $150 on the next hand or each of 2 hands
if I lose this or these hands I go back to 2 hands at $75 or $100

this should lower the variance.
I don't know how to simulate this however.

my ev should be ok as well I think.

the game is 2 deck, 80% penetration, double 9 10 11, das, no sur, split 4 times, aces twice and one card only.
please advise.

[ZenKinG]

Not a coincidence at all that you won it back playing heads up.. Short run 1 session of course its a coincidence, but the odds of it not being lucky are far greater playing heads up and has a shorter long run. Mhb strive to play with the least amount of people as possible in the future, you will see greater results, only downside is you will also see quicker bad variance because of the amount of more rounds you will get compared to playing half table or full table.

[ZeeBabar]

the 6 deck shoes are continuous shuffle so they are no good.
i'm forced to play $25 min 2 deck games with good penetration.
my br is $14,000 not replenishible.
here is a compromise from all replies:

when I have the edge I go to 2 hands at $75 or $100
if I win this or these hands I go to betting $150 on the next hand or each of 2 hands
if I lose this or these hands I go back to 2 hands at $75 or $100

this should lower the variance.
I don't know how to simulate this however.

my ev should be ok as well I think.

the game is 2 deck, 80% penetration, double 9 10 11, das, no sur, split 4 times, aces twice and one card only.
please advise.

I wouldn't do this. It all depends upon the count. I suggest you play the opening hand with $25, go to two hands of $25 at +1, two hands of $50 each at +2. If you lose the bet count remains TC+2, place the same amount out, if count goes up put $75 each out. If you won the two hands of +2, count remains the same, bet $75 each. If count has gone up to TC+3, go to $100 each. If it's gone up to TC+4, go to $150 each.

The ROR is still way too high but if you are bent on playing, this may work better.

[Jabberwocky]

What's table limit? Always play this game one on one and play two holes off the top; reduce to one hole when your advantage is 1% or better. You will do better variance-wise and that should be your greatest concern.

[Blitzkrieg]

If your on a fixed income like social security and if you doubted yourself and your skill then I think you need to go back to the drawing board! You need to come up with a better strategy/plan of attack via rehearsals. If "losing" got you that down it seems as if you need to lower your bets to a more comfortable betting range before you move on to bigger money on the table. Lets face it, your on Social Security and most people plan to do with less when receiving SS in their golden years compared to their most productive years as an employee or entrepreneur.

While you were playing did you continuously lose count during the Double Deck game? Were you drinking? If so how much?

[mhb]

If your on a fixed income like social security and if you doubted yourself and your skill then I think you need to go back to the drawing board! You need to come up with a better strategy/plan of attack via rehearsals. If "losing" got you that down it seems as if you need to lower your bets to a more comfortable betting range before you move on to bigger money on the table. Lets face it, your on Social Security and most people plan to do with less when receiving SS in their golden years compared to their most productive years as an employee or entrepreneur.

While you were playing did you continuously lose count during the Double Deck game? Were you drinking? If so how much?

I kept the count regularly. on rare occasions if I lost count then I would back off the game or assume a 0 count and bet minimum.
I do not drink alcohol at all especially when playing bj.

zeebabar has useful idea I think. please advise.

the min bet is $25 if I go to 2 hands then min bet is $50 on each 2 hands.

br is now at $14,000, want to build it up to over $20,000 so I can bet $150 max on each of 2 hands. how do I get there. please advise.

ror is my main concern. I don't want to tap out by any means. but I am willing to take a small risk.

[mhb]

If your on a fixed income like social security and if you doubted yourself and your skill then I think you need to go back to the drawing board! You need to come up with a better strategy/plan of attack via rehearsals. If "losing" got you that down it seems as if you need to lower your bets to a more comfortable betting range before you move on to bigger money on the table. Lets face it, your on Social Security and most people plan to do with less when receiving SS in their golden years compared to their most productive years as an employee or entrepreneur.

While you were playing did you continuously lose count during the Double Deck game? Were you drinking? If so how much?

I am not betting rent money. I have no dependents. I just support myself. I want to sustain bj for recreation and small profit. and for sizzle.

[22 Dreams]

I ran 6 CV Data sims for the game you're playing. I set the pen at 78% (because I've seen 75% to 80% regularly on the game you're playing). All sims are HiLo Full Indices and RoR numbers based on 14K bankroll. Instead of betting like a computer, I limited your raises after a loss like this: If you bet $25 or $50, you can only raise the bet to $100 on the next round. As for lowering after a win, you didn't lower the bet at all if the TC was +2 or higher. If the TC was +1 or lower, you lowered the bet to $25.

Sim #1 (with 1 other player at the table):
25-200 spread, 50 off the top.

+1 and below $25
+2 $50
+3 $100
+4 $150
+5 $200

Win rate: $72
RoR: 6.1%
SCORE:71
NO:14,076

Sim #2--Everything the same as above,but now you're heads-up with the dealer:

Win rate: $77.23
RoR: 5.9%

Sim #3--now there are 2 other players at the table:
Win rate: $67.89
RoR: 6.2%

Sim#4--everything the same as Sim#1 except now your max bet is 150, not 200.
Win rate: $53.90
RoR: 5.7%

Surprised that the change in RoR is negligible even though you've lowered your top bet by $50? To really change
your RoR, you'd have to lower your minimum bet, but that's impossible for this game because the table min is $25.

Sim#5--now you're spreading to two hands with one other player at the table and betting like a computer:
+1 or below 1 x $25
+2 2 x $50
+3 2 x $75
+4 2 x $100

Win rate: $69.27
RoR: 5.2%

Sim#6--spread 25-200 like a computer:
Win rate: $80.53
RoR: 6.1%

[Three]

Surprised that the change in RoR is negligible even though you've lowered your top bet by $50? To really change

Only negligiblr if you aren't in that extra .4%. Of course when you go bust you have no way of knowing if you were.

your RoR, you'd have to lower your minimum bet, but that's impossible for this game because the table min is $25.

He could wong out of some of the worst ones or have some old man issues that need attending to if others are at the table so he can sit out some hands.