recent ordeal and loss of confidence, need help

[mhb]

I just returned from 3 days of playing at my favorite casino with good conditions. I bet max bets at 2 hands at $150 and a couple of times went to 2 hands at $200. the first 2 days had a monster losing streak of over $5,000. my trip br was initially at $8,000.
I had a loss of confidence in the whole system and doubted the game could be beaten. I thought we were all fools. whatever it took to beat the game I thought I did not have.
I really felt like a loser and sad.
my care provider wanted to go home.
I decided no we should stay and I went down on the morning at about 2am to the pit and played till 930am. mostly I played head to head and won back the losses plus a profit of $1,500. just the opposite happened.
I went from hopeless to reinvigorated after I won at the end of trip.

I ask for comments.

it was a rough experience, the ups and downs. my confidence was restored after my br was restored.
but I still feel insecure and wonder if things are ok.
I will continue playing.
please advise.

I know I played long sessions but I don't get out often so I take advantage and try to rack up the credits for comps. including a free room.

[SiMi]

Hi,

Good on ya for hanging in there!

Any heat on such a long session counting? What were the games and rules, table conditions, etc. Were you playing sharp each time and did anything weird or interesting happen on such a long session? A report with more details would be great!

My only thought would be that your BR might not really be what you're willing to lose and you might want to lower the stakes if you felt that shaken... Just sayin....

[KJ]

Without even knowing rules and conditions, I can say, I see nothing unusual about your 2 swings. @ $200 top wager, a $5000 swing (each way) represents 25 of these top wagers. And you are playing 2 of these top wagers every round, meaning co-variance comes into play, making such a swing even less unusual.

What I do find troubling is your top wager in regard to your bankroll. If this is your total bankroll, you are extremely over betting your bankroll. Even if this is some sort of partial or trip bankroll, you are over betting your bankroll, playing to a very high RoR. You should reconsider your numbers.

[paymypush]

Were you steaming? Did you make the same bets after your bankroll shrunk to 3k? You were lucky.

[bigplayer]

You should feel insecure, even with an edge casino play is still, in the short run, just gambling. If losing $8,000 wasn't supposed to be a possibility for you why did you bring that much money. Bring only what you are willing to lose. Betting 2@$150 at 1.5% advantage and 2@$200 at 3% advantage or higher on a 16 hour trip you have around a 1 chance in 5 of losing $5,000 on any given trip and a 5% chance of busting out completely. (1 trip in 20). Your EV is around $1,150 per trip and you will have a really nice win and double your $8,000 trip bankroll about 1 trip in 11. If your total bankroll is $20,000 your risk of ruin is still around 7%.

[stopgambling]

2 hands of $200 is very large bets for $8000 session bank. You better have at least have 200 max bets ready for a total bankroll and you better be willing to lose all of it (maybe around 2-3 % chance with $100 max bet.)Are you emotional ready ? i do not think so.

[mhb]

thank you all for your comments.
I played under excellent conditions and rules -- 2 decks, 80% penetration, double on 9 10 11, das, 3 to 2 on bj, split 4 times, aces only once split. the mid night morning shift had few players , had the pit to myself, 2 tables with this dd game. no heat, but I worry if they play the tape and next time give me trouble.
I need to play less often, not overexpose myself.

my total initial br was about $14,000. trip br about $9,000. after I lost the $5,000 I did not lower my betting much, just a little bit from the #200 hands.

i'm in a difficult situation with my br. i'm on social security. I cannot replace my br if I lose it. but I must bet at least $100 max bets to maintain ev I think. and to maintain proper spread, with min bets of $25.

I was alert during the winning session. somewhat tired during losing sessions but I think overall I as ok.

I don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg here. I need to play with less exposure to possible heat.

I have concerns about this play and my modus operandi. but I don't know of any other alternatives.

I need help.

I thank you all for your attention here.

I understand that I could lose 100 to 150 max bets in a losing streak which would wipe me out unless I lower my bets. maybe $75 max bets on each of 2 hands would be sufficient. please advise.

[max85]

if your br is 14k, your tope bet is $400 and your on social security, then my friend you are a bloody gambling addict. no disrespect, you are bludging from the government and trying to make money at a casino, stop milking the system and get off your ass and get a job!

yes you need help, its called gamblers anon!!!!

stop using your money, save it for your family, kids, a house. making any decent money at bj is very difficult and the swings wipe most people out.

good luck

[SiMi]

Was it S17? LS?

Interesting you got no heat... Are you obviously disabled (like a wheelchair or something) so that they might be hesitant to hassle you? Not trying to pry, just wondering if something like that is helping your cover... If so, more power to you. Use it! If not, you'll be blown soon I would think...

To me, your max bet should be 1/100th of total bankroll. In your case, $14,000 / 100 = $140. So, 2 hands of $75 would be the top. Something like that.

At a $10 table, you'd have a 15:1 spread which is plenty good to have a nice EV with maybe less heat while you build your BR. My sim (BJ678) shows you have a $40 per hour expectation at this with a $10 - $150 spread and these conditions.

You could even do the same at a $5 table from time to time (if you kept it short and you're not getting much heat) and you'd have a massive 30:1 spread with far less RoR.

It won't do you any good to overbet and lose it all. You might as well work with what you've got. I just think you're overbetting. I have no idea if you're addicted. I guess you'll have to think about that but I think over betting is very common. And, just because you have the long run edge doesn't mean that every session is a winner. You've got to be around for the long run to see the edge materialize unless you just get lucky.

[muffdiver]

if your br is 14k, your tope bet is $400 and your on social security, then my friend you are a bloody gambling addict. no disrespect, you are bludging from the government and trying to make money at a casino, stop milking the system and get off your ass and get a job!

yes you need help, its called gamblers anon!!!!

stop using your money, save it for your family, kids, a house. making any decent money at bj is very difficult and the swings wipe most people out.

good luck

I think the OP has stated that he's disabled so getting a job might not be an option. I would suggest cutting his stakes by 75% (to a $50 max bet) and slowly building a bankroll with the hope of being able to play comfortably at his current stakes in the future.

[Bodarc]

I find it interesting that someone who probably has paid into a forced government retirement plan his entire life and then starts drawing social security is considered to be milking the system.

[paymypush]

I'm glad your getting 80% pen, mhb. If that game is H17 I'm getting a house edge of about .58%.

[bigplayer]

It's easy to overestimate penetration, better be sure you're getting 80% because anything less with those rules and the game isn't that great. $14,000 bankroll is full Kelly with a 2@$200 top bet. You need to win and at least triple your bankroll to get risk down ASAP. Right now it's a crapshoot.