Absolute Bare Minimum for "Edge"...

[Nyne]

True, making a meaningful amount of money on VP is not trivial, but playing with a slight advantage doesn't require playing fast, it just requires correct application of a strategy card. Still, probably the easiest play out there is wonging slots. You've gotta know what you're looking for, but I could take my dad into a place, point to a machine, and tell him how to know when to sit down in one line, and he'd have an advantage if he never deviated from my instruction. And that just requires pushing one button over and over. But, it also requires discipline that most people don't have. Horse to water, and all that.

[ZeeBabar]

Personally, I think it's absurd to claim someone can learn to beat a casino, even with a tiny edge, with 15-20 hours of practice.

i totally agree. The problem is that one can, on an occasion or five, beat the casino. Then, guys assume they can do it in the long run. Some see the math, see the initial wins and assume they can make a living and thus Las Vegas finds its valet parking attendants, bouncers and waiters.

fact is that theoretically you can beat a casino, reality is that most of these folks do not have the bankroll required for long term success and they do not have the mental make up and when the variance/ standard deviation hits, whatever BR they have is gone.

yes, the edge may be with the AP but if he has not got a BR of several thousand dollars for the $5 game, $10,000 for the $10 game, and such, the typical person who knows how to count, gets lucky and wins, spends most of the winnings celebrating and the losing streak hits where even with good positive counts and maximum bets out, the dealer keeps getting the tens and the BJ's, and the would be counters slink away. Some don't give up so easily, borrow, get payday loans, hand in their car title for a loan and ....

so sad but predictable...

[Norm]

Still, probably the easiest play out there is wonging slots. You've gotta know what you're looking for, but I could take my dad into a place, point to a machine, and tell him how to know when to sit down in one line, and he'd have an advantage if he never deviated from my instruction.

Two kinds of Wonging slots were very common once. Progressions and give-backs. I haven't been paying attention for a while. Progressions became too large, making the variance high, and give-backs faded away. Wong's book was based on progressions. Give-backs were really popular -- with guys that hung around slots like people that checked pay-phones for coins. But, I'm not up on the current state of affairs. With perfect play, you can get an edge here and there. But, what a grind. At least you no longer end up with blackened fingertips.

[DBJT]

I'm not sure what was meant but Hyland in this particular instance.

(Assume you intended "meant by Hyland" there)...

My interpretation of what Hyland meant here was that even just keeping a simple running count, not even doing TC conversion, BUT always STOP PLAYING any time you are in a negative number... with strict basic strategy discipline and always simple flat bet, over the long run a player would eke out a small gain.

Factor in comp value for the playing time and they're probably achieving a real "edge" overall... however small.

My thinking however was that IF all someone did was flit around the casino, sit at FULL tables and try to take partial double downs, for one example, chipping in money ONLY when other players double for less (or if someone's passing up a good strong doubles, like eleven against a five, try to straight up BUY the hand from the other player, if possible) they'd have a much higher EDGE on each hand they actually played...

Of course, on a "per hour" basis they'd probably still be pretty low "earnings"... but for a casual non-pro player who isn't trying to make "per hour" money, if they just want to be able to hang out in the casino and "play the games" for amusement, however infrequently... maybe this would actually work?

I wonder if the casinos would allow that... if they figured out that "old Joe over there is just playing double downs with people", and he never puts down any of his own bets? Not sure I've ever actually SEEN that: what do you guys think the pit crews would do in this case? He's not HURTING anybody, but he IS taking up a seat... LOL

There is no question that a person can be trained quickly to be useful as a part of a team...

This would be part of my 'professional interest' in this question, but actually my point of the post wasn't to explore this area of it... maybe in another topic later.

Actually my thinking on the question was along the lines of the OPPOSITE of the Tarzan thread we have going now.

Tarzan's asking about if there's a market for writing his book about his very *difficult* advanced count strategy, so I started thinking about if maybe there's a market for a book that would document several very EASY and SIMPLE strategies that ANY AVERAGE STOOPID LAZY casino patron could utilize... with just a little bit of info and discipline... to actually get an advantage over the house for the time that they're spending in the casino.

Hmm.

-DBJT

[Norm]

I like simplicity. The problem that I have always had with the concept of simplicity to the extent that it only provides a bare edge, is that risk is monstrously high. If you have a tiny edge, but a normal-sized bankroll, your edge may just be an illusion. It may theoretically exist for one hand. But, does it still exist over time given that the casino probably has more money than the player?

[seriousplayer]

I even taught him IRC, bet ramps, and a few index plays, he knows BS except a few soft doubles and hasn't learned about games with surrender. That night he was in his room with his flashlight on, counting down on his bed and playing a moch game!

If he don't know the basic strategy for a few soft double and surrender than he don't know his basic strategy.I wouldn't consider myself know basic strategy if I only know 95%. You have to know it 100% with the corresponding rules.

[DBJT]

The "Rule of 12" memory shortcut is a good way for beginners to get their soft doubles right.

It works for player A-2 thru A-7 and dealer up-card from 2-6

Basically you take the dealer's up-card, DOUBLE its value, and ADD the value of your non-Ace card:

If the total is 12 or more, you DOUBLE
If the total is less than 12, just HIT

Examples:
Dealer: 2, You: A-7. 2 x 2 = 4 + 7 = 11... so you don't double
Dealer: 4, You: A-4. 4 x 2 = 8 + 4 = 12... so you double
Dealer: 3, You: A-5. 3 x 2 = 6 + 5 = 11... so you don't double
etc. etc.

There's only a couple exceptions where it doesn't work: player A-7 vs dealer 2 on H17 shoe games, and A-3 vs 4 in double deck H-17...

-DBJT

P.S. Fred Renzey wrote about the "Rule of 9" similar memory trick for soft doubles too...

[TheRedKing]

If he don't know the basic strategy for a few soft double and surrender than he don't know his basic strategy.I would consider myself know basic strategy if I only know 95%. You have to know it 100% with the corresponding rules.

He's Eleven and had around an hour... The point was that people can learn it fast, as Hyland was saying.

[Nyne]

Give-backs were really popular -- with guys that hung around slots like people that checked pay-phones for coins.

Pretty sure that same crowd still hustles a lot of the current slots. Them and the people that will take a free bus ride to the casino and back over and over to get a $5 free play coupon each trip.

But, I'm not up on the current state of affairs. With perfect play, you can get an edge here and there. But, what a grind. At least you no longer end up with blackened fingertips.

A grind indeed. Some people like it, but I wouldn't wish it on anybody. It is possible to earn a living on slots alone, but it's very tough. There just aren't many plays out there that are really worth any significant amount of money. However, it's a great compliment to other forms of AP because it allows you to monetize your downtime when you are in a casino anyway. I don't make all that much from slots, but I play some type of slot machine on nearly every trip. I mostly view it as a reduction in my trip expenses more so than an income stream, at least in terms of order of magnitude.

[bigplayer]

Smart Machine players aren't trying to win from their play, they are playing against the casino's marketing program. The best recent example was Revel AC's $100,000 loss rebate program.

[muffdiver]

[QUOTE=Nyne;118892]Pretty sure that same crowd still hustles a lot of the current slots. Them and the people that will take a free bus ride to the casino and back over and over to get a $5 free play coupon each trip.



It is possible to earn a living on slots alone, but it's very tough.

Sorry but I don't agree! (Unless you include vp with slots)

[Nyne]

Agree or disagree, there are people who do it. I know people who are doing it now and who have done it over the past couple of decades. They play vp too, but the slot portion of their play is enough to live on. Just because you don't know the same games they do does not mean it is impossible. But this is straying quite a bit from the original question in this thread, which was what is the absolute lowest effort a hobby gambler could expend to gain a slight edge. I still think it is waiting until a certain condition is met on a machine, then mashing the spin button.

[DBJT]

I still think it is waiting until a certain condition is met on a machine, then mashing the spin button.

Do you think that's less waiting, versus my idea of only playing "scavenger" double downs? Seems to me like that'd be a lot more down-time.

At least with the doubling idea you might play a couple bets an hour, minimum (depending on how crowded the casino is, and if you're a friendly enough person so that people are willing to share their doubles-for-less with you at all, and IF the pit crew doesn't kick you out for doing this, LOL)

Also with the doubling idea, at least you're at the blackjack tables talking & interacting with other people as opposed to just haunting the machines all by yourself...

-DBJT