update on my recreational AP experience

[negEV]

It seems that most people on here are seasoned (dare I say grizzled) veterans or total noobs looking for info.

Because of this I think some of the noobs could benefit from my experience.

I started trying to count (hi-lo) 4-5 years ago. I liked going to the casinos but I am a pretty logical guy and hate knowing I'm going to lose in the fabled long run. So I went looking for an edge. Like many noobs I jumped in way to soon and after a little run of positive varience thought I was rain man. I was playing mostly 2D with average rules. I'm not even sure I understood what penatration was or why it was important back then. I was spreading $10-50 and just camping at one table. I had no idea what wonging was.

I made lots of early mistakes... Here are some of the biggest. Not knowing BS perfectly. I am sure I was making BS mistakes from time to time. Not knowing enough indexes. I knew +3 insurance and +0 16vT... That was about it and I probably misplayed those half the time. I also usually drank a fair amount while playing, often I'd stop trying to count and just flat bet the min and get drunk. 2D was a smart move because I'd frequently lose the count and have to wait for a new shoe.

Things I did right in the early days... Keeping track of wins and losses. However the end came once the positive variance left. And so did my record keeping. Funny how you can't wait to record a winning session... But somehow you forget to record the days when you lose $600. I started chasing and gambling. My $2-3k in winnings I'd amassed over a few months was gone in a few visits. The best thing I did at that point was stop playing.

Fast forward a few years and lo and behold they built a casino within walking distance of me. So I figured I'd try counting again. I studied up more seriously this time. I learned BS perfectly. I could recite it without thinking. Then I memorized the indexes... Well the first 18. I practiced using software. I back counted. I wonged. I was playing an 8d game with a 0.69% house edge. Barely beatable if you are good. My goal was to break even. Get the edge close to 0% and enjoy some perks as I was playing rated.

I think the way I have been playing is perfect for the majority of counters. I wasn't looking to win $100k. I just wanted an advantage so I could play for free.

This however was also my undoing. I played about 100hrs over about 6 months. I ended up about $1k which was $10/hr. Still spreading 10-50... Occasionally going to $75 if the TC got above 5 and I'd won a bit that day already. You are thinking, wow, not bad... Sure... But I was attempting to play for fun... Card counting isn't all that much fun once you do it for a few months.

I think I will still go though spurts of counting now and again... But in general my time is worth more than $10/hr.

In the future I'll probably keep a looser count and a smaller spread. And only play a couple indexes. That way I can drink, talk to people and not have to concentrate so much. I was mostly playing 30-90min sessions. My brain couldn't take much more. When I play casually I can play for 8-10hrs. Casual play is more fun but I doubt I have an advantage, but I am still way ahead of the average player and even a bit ahead of the BS player.

I just thought I'd share my experience. Also it was only a matter of time before I would have got backed off. The casino has stopped sending me free play coupons despite playing 2-3x week, so I figured I was in their system at least as a skilled player if not an AP. I was on their radar for sure. I also did not like the fact that several PBs knew me by name.

Maybe I'll start playing poker next. I haven't played any at this new store. I just with they had lower limits like 1-2 limit hold 'em.

[Slacker13]

Thanks for sharing! I find your journey interesting and informative,especially for in-between players. Best of luck in your future endeavors!

Poker can definitely be a grind as well

[Hsiaodi]

8 deck 1-5 spread? Doubtful they are afraid of your action.... Just saying.

[Bushido]

Appears you went down the same path I am on...Good post Negev...

[negEV]

8 deck 1-5 spread? Doubtful they are afraid of your action.... Just saying.

Any ideas on why they would totally cut off the comps then? Perhaps they don't think I'm an AP... But they know I'm winning over a long period of time. Do places cut off winners. Or was I going too much, perhaps they figured I didn't need incentives to come back. Or perhaps even living in the same zip code as the casino played a roll. Or the fact I was using every (well 90% of them) free play coupon they gave me.

At my low limits those comps and dealer mistakes are a significant chunk of my advantage. They dealers have gotten better and the comps are gone. And my edge has gone from a little to almost none. Which is another reason I've slowed down on my play.

[Three]

Or perhaps even living in the same zip code as the casino played a roll. Or the fact I was using every (well 90% of them) free play coupon they gave me.

This. You will usually get offers even after a BO. They gauge what it takes to get you to show up and reward you for your level of play. If they believe you will come no matter what it is a no brainer for marketing not to waste money on you. They must remain competitive with comps if they want to maintain their client base. You can tell what they think of your skill level by the comps you receive. When the comps drop to a trickle they are rating you a skillz player. In most decent sized casinos your level of action isn't even worth it to evaluate. You are no threat to their bottom line and anyone you bring in with you will likely offset and then some your slim advantage.

[SiMi]

Hi -EV

Thanks for the great post! Your story is an excellent example of why I think Casinos spend FAR TOO MUCH TIME worrying about counters.

In the 'long run' VERY FEW PEOPLE will become full-timers who can take 5 figures a year (let alone $100's of thousands) from the Casinos. Not even 1 in 1,000 who try make it, I bet, and how many people even try? Those who try and fail would make up for the odd one who actually makes significant money. Spread this one guy's winnings out over a few Casinos for a few years until he gets bored and it doesn't even register.

But, the fact that BJ can be beaten keeps people coming in and playing the game even if they know nothing about counting. So, the Casinos WIN due to counters.

I think it was Zender who echoed this sentiment and pointed out in writing that Casinos are giving away FAR MORE MONEY trying to foil counters than they save EVERY DAY, 24/7 with crappy rules, bad penetration (frequent shuffling), intimidation tactics, pissy dealers, etc. that scare off players. I've personally talked to players who refuse to play at certain tables or places simply because the dealers are too fast and intimidating and the bosses stand around watching everything like a hawk - and these are $5 and $10 tables. These are often older, retired people who just want some entertainment and socializing in their lives. ANY MORON can see they are not a threat. My wife would like to play just for fun while I'm doing my thing but she won't do it because it's not a fun environment in many places. I bet many women feel that way.

It just seems like personal EGO is the big problem at the Casinos because it is driving away business at some of the places I've been.

[seriousplayer]

Hi -EV

Thanks for the great post! Your story is an excellent example of why I think Casinos spend FAR TOO MUCH TIME worrying about counters.

In the 'long run' VERY FEW PEOPLE will become full-timers who can take 5 figures a year (let alone $100's of thousands) from the Casinos. Not even 1 in 1,000 who try make it, I bet, and how many people even try? Those who try and fail would make up for the odd one who actually makes significant money. Spread this one guy's winnings out over a few Casinos for a few years until he gets bored and it doesn't even register.

But, the fact that BJ can be beaten keeps people coming in and playing the game even if they know nothing about counting. So, the Casinos WIN due to counters.

I think it was Zender who echoed this sentiment and pointed out in writing that Casinos are giving away FAR MORE MONEY trying to foil counters than they save EVERY DAY, 24/7 with crappy rules, bad penetration (frequent shuffling), intimidation tactics, pissy dealers, etc. that scare off players. I've personally talked to players who refuse to play at certain tables or places simply because the dealers are too fast and intimidating and the bosses stand around watching everything like a hawk - and these are $5 and $10 tables. These are often older, retired people who just want some entertainment and socializing in their lives. ANY MORON can see they are not a threat. My wife would like to play just for fun while I'm doing my thing but she won't do it because it's not a fun environment in many places. I bet many women feel that way.

It just seems like personal EGO is the big problem at the Casinos because it is driving away business at some of the places I've been.

I think the casino should be aware of the AP who fails because failing is a stepping stone to success. See when Thomas Edison first invented the light bulb he failed 141 times before he succeeded. I been though failures in my life too at the end I was about to success because I learn from those failures and use them as a leverage for success. Blackjack is no different.

[Three]

ad penetration (frequent shuffling), intimidation tactics, pissy dealers, etc. that scare off players. I've personally talked to players who refuse to play at certain tables or places simply because the dealers are too fast and intimidating

These are hard to find. They are the most profitable dealers especially in uncrowded conditions that their repellant behavior causes. Can you PM me a list of casinos. I can't find a dealer fast enough for my taste. It is like the casino doubling your hourly to try to mess you up. I love to be messed up like that.

[DBJT]

It seems that most people on here are seasoned veterans or total noobs looking for info... I made lots of early mistakes... Things I did right in the early days... Keeping track of wins and losses... Fast forward a few years... I figured I'd try counting again. I studied up more seriously this time... I think the way I have been playing is perfect for the majority of counters... I wasn't looking to win $100k... I think I will still go though spurts of counting now and again... But in general my time is worth more than $10/hr... In the future I'll probably keep a looser count and a smaller spread. And only play a couple indexes... That way I can drink, talk to people and not have to concentrate so much. I was mostly playing 30-90min... When I play casually I can play for 8-10hrs. Casual play is more fun but I doubt I have an advantage, but I am still way ahead of the average player and even a bit ahead of the BS player.

Thanks a lot for posting this today, NegEV.

What you've written is a really good viewpoint illustrating what I believe is a very large but voiceless contingent, a class of middle-level blackjack players who exist every day in the casinos.

You're not entirely a full blown AP (yet?) but you're also hardly a noob or 'ploppy / idiot' that so many skilled players automatically assume any & every one of the non-APs sitting next to them at the BJ table must be.

You may be only 1 in 100 of all the people in the casino, but considering the hundreds of thousands of patrons who stream thru their doors every day, all day, 24-7-365... there are still probably tens of thousands of "your type" existing.

Unfortunately you're still simply on your own in your quest to gain an edge over the house, and as you've figured out it's a tough grind. Full-time pros know this and take the plunge anyway, but for you and most like you (including me!) it doesn't fit your life goals or plans of how you want to live.

So, you end up kinda stuck regarding blackjack --- and now you're looking at poker.

But, wait a sec: imagine if you were NOT entirely "on your own" against blackjack?

"What IF" this large contingent of isolated anonymous, disconnected and voiceless "more than ploppy" but "less than AP" blackjack players could somehow band together for mutual benefit of learning, playing, bankroll... etc ?

"What IF" part-time, non-pro but still skilled players, could actually benefit from doing local-only "AP Work"?

"What IF" substantially lucrative, skilled blackjack play no longer required an ambitious player to have to adopt the currently necessary full-time, high-risk, huge-bankroll, constant-travel, road-warrior lifestyle?

"What if" indeed -- this has been my project for a couple years now.

However, I don't like to discuss it on these OPEN forums for a variety of reasons, so if you're interested in knowing more please check my profile info, PM or email me.

IF this sounds to you as if we might be onto something, I'd very much like to get your feedback on our project, because as I said, I think what you've written is very representative of a large but voiceless & invisible minority that exists out there.

-DBJT