What is the probability that a dealer will get six aces in a roll when the dealers hole card and up card is an ace in an eight deck blackjack game? Also, what is the probability of all seven players getting a two card total of eleven?
What is the probability that a dealer will get six aces in a roll when the dealers hole card and up card is an ace in an eight deck blackjack game? Also, what is the probability of all seven players getting a two card total of eleven?
Meaningless questions.
The answers will be "long" numbers indeed.
To make it so much as remotely meaningful
the questions needs to be carefully restated.
The probability of same - when stated in advance -
as to its precise occurrence - is NOT at all the same
as the probability of seeing same - at some time
during a stipulated (necessarily long) period of time.
In either case, the correct answer will be of
absolutely no consequence whatsoever.
Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 11-16-2013 at 04:54 PM.
"What is the probability that a dealer will get six aces in a roll [row] when the dealer's hole card and up card is [are] an ace in an eight deck blackjack game?"
416 cards. 32 aces. Two are already gone. 30 left. Prob. = (30 x 29 x 28 x 27 x 26 x 25)/(414 x 413 x 412 x 411 x 410 x 409) = 1 in 11,356,439.
Also, what is the probability of all seven players getting a two card total of eleven?
Tougher to figure, but the prob. of a two-card 11 in an 8-deck game is, roughly, 0.0025 = 1 in 400. So, not accounting for removal of cards, (1/400)^7 = 1,638,400,000,000,000,000.
Can you even say it? :-) One in 1.6 quintillion!
I take it you had a reason for asking the question, but I can't imagine what it would be.
Don
For Don:Originally Posted by DSchles
I have another question for you but since in this forum people have a habit of rating my post unhelpful. I will hold back from asking. Since the probability of the dealer getting six aces in a row when the dealer's hole card and up card are an ace in an eight deck blackjack game is 11,356,439 does that make it impossible for it to occurred? I've seen it all happen in an eight deck table not in the movies.
I know your Q was aimed at Don. But, as long as there's any possibility of an event happening, no matter how small, it is NOT impossible. You may never see it happen. In fact, many lifes times of people may never. In all possibility, it has not ever happened once in the history of blackjack, but that doesn't mean it can't/won't.
Though you said you HAVE seen it happen in an 8 deck game ( unless i misunderstood that last sentence), that should've already answered your question of impossible or not.
Food for Thought: nothings impossible. Highly improbable? Sure. But its hard to say something can't happen. If you believe in the string theory, extra dimensional space etc. then all possible outcomes of all possible events ARE occurring.
~Pac
You posted: "Though you said you HAVE seen it happen in an 8 deck game ( unless i misunderstood that last sentence), that should've already answered your question of impossible or not." It did answer my question I posted that because someone want to be "MOCKING" so I get angry and post evidence to disprove their sarcasm. Yes, I did see in happen in actual casino play but all plays getting two card total of 11 not yet. Again, it is not impossible.
Yes, knowing that information will help me in practical sense. Answer for those of you who wants to get smart and ask how. In practice knowing the odds of winning powerball is 1 in 175 million I know not to play the powerball. If I don't know that information I might play the lottery. Besides we are talking about dealer and player card probabilities. How did the "odds of winning powerball" get into the conversation?
The reason why I ask question about the dealer and player cad probability is to see if the casino manipulated the game in an ingenious or devious way comparing that to the odds of those hands occurring.
Last edited by seriousplayer; 11-16-2013 at 07:28 PM.
There are many thousands of combinations of cards that might strike you as somehow "interesting", like a dealer starting with AA and drawing 6 more aces, a dealer starting with 22 and drawing several more 2s, a dealer starting with 33 and drawing several more 3s, a player doing any of these things, a string of alternating ranks (A2A2A2), and on and on. Specifying the likelihood of any one of them will show that taken individually, each is exceedingly rare. But because of the huge number of hands that any one person will see, and more importantly the huge number of combinations that will make you pause and think "what are the odds?", it's quite likely that you will periodically see one of the interesting combinations. Maybe not this particular one ever again, but something interesting nonetheless. That's what the other posters mean when they say the odds don't mean anything. I don't think any of them are questioning whether or not you saw that sequence, it's just that the fact that it was that sequence and not one of the other "interesting" sequences was chance, so specifying the odds of that sequence of cards has no meaning if the real underlying question is how often will I encounter an interesting sequence of cards.
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