disadvantaged and desperate

[hardin county boy]

man, with all the 3 buck turmoil, the disadvantage section is in desperate need.

lets take a run at comparing and contrasting voodoo-progression players with AP-counter players:

for this discussion, assume the voodooist is a positive progression guy ie only bets up when winning and flat bets if losing--no martingale nor chasing losses.

i will start with a few and see if you can add THOUGHTFUL comparisons (i promise to do the internet equivalent of a knuckle-rap for anyone who does not recognize they are in a DISADVANTAGE site and are rude with comments like "stop gambling" or "get a good counting book and practice" or "you cant win" or "troll" or whatever. i WILL call you out for the attention-seeking fake you are--if you act like you are somehow violated by "noise" you will be held to account---you dont like this thread? stop reading now. if you post you are a sicko.

ok: 1) progression guys have smaller bankroll needs
2) progression guys only bet higher when winning while AP bets higher when at advantage, even if he is experiencing steep losses.
3) when both are at a table that, unknown to both, is destined to pay the players all day long, the AP will make some good money and leave or be asked to leave and the progression guy might stay for hours.
4)at the table described in number 3, the AP may spread 8 or so, the progression guy? sometimes the sky is the limit. (or the sign posted on the table)

there are a lot more, some make AP look more favorable, some make voodoo look tempting and some, neither--just true observations--what do you got?

[bigplayer]

1. Progression guy needs a bigger overall bankroll, because he's playing a losing game he has a 100% risk of ruin if he plays long enough
2. AP's don't always lose and when they win those wins offset their losses. Progression players utilizing the system you describe will lose the vast majority of their sessions and only occasionally have a winning streak long enough to have a substantial win.
3. There is a reason casinos don't ask Progression players to leave....think about that.
4. What is a $0 to 2x$2500 spread? That's the type of spread high stakes counters use.

[hardin county boy]

1. Progression guy needs a bigger overall bankroll, because he's playing a losing game he has a 100% risk of ruin if he plays long enough
2. AP's don't always lose and when they win those wins offset their losses. Progression players utilizing the system you describe will lose the vast majority of their sessions and only occasionally have a winning streak long enough to have a substantial win.
3. There is a reason casinos don't ask Progression players to leave....think about that.
4. What is a $0 to 2x$2500 spread? That's the type of spread high stakes counters use.

decent post, big. 1) i know enough guys who play a lot and are lifetime progression winners i am unsure this blanket statement (never say always) is true. reminds me a little of blanket statements of how cant outperform market indexes but some do, fabulously, for 30+ years. (i know and i even agree, markets have a positive expectation and the disadvantged, a negative) 2) agree 100% with AP comment. second part about progression is simply not true, depending on how plays--in the past, rolling stoned described it better as lotta little wins and hard to make up for the common-enough big loss. 3) touche'---i think about it all the time and am jealous. 4) i did not follow this--what is first bet sitting at the table and what might a guy be so bold as to spread to?

[Norm]

i know enough guys who play a lot and are lifetime progression winners

After a "friendly" Poker game where the players are all hanging out at a bar, ask each one how they did. Often, they will all say they won or broke even. Where does the money come from? You can't believe the claims of gamblers.

[hardin county boy]

You can't believe the claims of gamblers.

100% accurate and i bet the top 25% of AP players are lifetime winners and are BIGGER winners than the best of any disadvantage, long term winners that MIGHT still exist. i think it is certainly true that the "top 25%" of long term disadvantage players are NOT all lifetime winners. it is anecdote but i have 2 friends who i have gambled with enough and know well enough that i believe their claims of lifetime, modest wins are true. both are great guys but cheap *******s who hate to lose and possess great discipline.

the math of AP is well explored and unassailable. in spite of AP heat in this forum, i think proving a negative is more difficult (ie voodoo CANNOT produce lifetime, long term winners) and, to some degree, i think the community is a bit glib in unilaterally asserting it is a dead issue. the assertion no one can beat market indexes over an active, 50 year career is equally logical but patently not true.

[Three]

You can't believe the claims of gamblers.

Back in my dice control days this was my experience. Lots of people claimed great success but maybe 10% of these had what it took. Some were so good they bet numbers hopping and hit them like crazy. These were a very small part of that 10% of those that claimed DC proficiency.

[hardin county boy]

on the subject of difference between AP and disadvantage, i am intrigued by "fishing holes", those tables that simply intend to pay players for hours and hours for who knows why. i know what disadvantage guys do (stay) but am curious on 2 points regarding AP:

1) at such a table do AP sometimes stay a very long time or does a count change or heat usually make hours and hours at such a table an unlikely experience?

2) i walk into each casino with the accurate/voodoo notion such a table MIGHT be in there somewhere so if i dont see it at the first table, i get moving, try to hit most of the tables in hopes. does the AP usually "sample" a lot of tables in a casino or just a few? ( i understand all voodoo, could leave a table just as it becomes fishing hole or arrive at a fishing hole as it peters out--i know.)

[Goatlife]

on the subject of difference between AP and disadvantage, i am intrigued by "fishing holes", those tables that simply intend to pay players for hours and hours for who knows why. i know what disadvantage guys do (stay) but am curious on 2 points regarding AP:

1) at such a table do AP sometimes stay a very long time or does a count change or heat usually make hours and hours at such a table an unlikely experience?

2) i walk into each casino with the accurate/voodoo notion such a table MIGHT be in there somewhere so if i dont see it at the first table, i get moving, try to hit most of the tables in hopes. does the AP usually "sample" a lot of tables in a casino or just a few? ( i understand all voodoo, could leave a table just as it becomes fishing hole or arrive at a fishing hole as it peters out--i know.)

Honestly,

y countinue to post here if ur not atleast trying to learn to be an ap. your post are utter nonse ,ur posts will be better served at wizard of Vegas

[hardin county boy]

Honestly,

y countinue to post here if ur not atleast trying to learn to be an ap. your post are utter nonse ,ur posts will be better served at wizard of Vegas

outed as off the subject, it was not clear to me whether you were unable to answer what looked like 2 simple questions i dont know the answer to? had you answered, i would have furthered my AP education.

[Norm]

You received no answer because the question is a non sequitur. It's like asking what an AP does when someone spills a salt shaker. The question makes no sense.

[DBJT]

(4) i did not follow this--what is first bet sitting at the table and what might a guy be so bold as to spread to?

What BP's alluding to there (BP, plz correct me if I'm wrong) is an Advantage Player utilizing a back-counting, Wong-In strategy with a massive bankroll, to "spread" from a minimum bet of ZERO under any given table's negative EV status, to a two-hand table-max bet under that very same table's positive +EV situations...

-DBJT

[hardin county boy]

What BP's alluding to there (BP, plz correct me if I'm wrong) is an Advantage Player utilizing a back-counting, Wong-In strategy with a massive bankroll, to "spread" from a minimum bet of ZERO under any given table's negative EV status, to a two-hand table-max bet under that very same table's positive +EV situations...

-DBJT

DB, thanks for the answer. i follow all of it, including the "zero" but clarify for me what the minimum bet this AP would make to get to 2500/hand, 2hands---i have had the impression it is hard to be more than 8:1 or maybe 16:1 for 2 hands, though that sounds tough at such a high bet. so does that suggest maybe a starting bet of 300$,one hand, spread to 2500 and 2 hands?---could a really good AP at a really lax casino really pull that off? and with backcounting/wong in? really?

[DBJT]

You're missing it a bit... in this situation there's no "spread" really -- it's just flat-betting table max on two hands when true count is positive EV (say +2 or better, maybe wait for +3, under Hi-Lo).

Yes of course it might be tough for a solo player to do ONLY this, "excessively" in ONE casino, for any significant length of time, without being detected and getting tossed... but teams have been known to do things like this successfully... the M.I.T. team did it for a while for example.

-DBJT