Need to turn 6K into 10K, what are my chances?

[blacksheep]

Hardin Co. Boy, Just a little fact I meant to mention in the last post about the second reference book I posted: It was printed in black and white, but it should've been a 3 color job. If you look at the win/loss tables closely there's a lot of red ink missing - which would mean more buy ins; and probably more bankroll. But he's not really concerned about long-term bankroll. His tables are based on $200 buy-ins if I recall.ROLLINGSTONED, I'm really not sure if I am or not. Yeah, It shows https:www.yada yada when on site. I usually just type the site name in after the www. But there's a lot of strange stuff going on with other sites too; but especially this one. Like the login section.

[Norm]

I'M WONDERING WHY I CAN'T PUT LINE SPACES IN MY POSTS

It's a VBulletin bug that occurs on some browser versions in some circumstances related to the TapaTalk interface, even though you are not using TapaTalk.

[21gunsalute]

cray cray, hard to get a simple answer if you dont attend the church of counters--no answer, just efforts to convert. i am not a math wizard but 3 hours play at 80 hands/hour has a 2/3 chance of varying 18 units or more. 6 hours--25 units. 9hours--31 and 12 hours--36. your "unit" will be whatever your "average bet size" is and that is hard to say since you will vary it depending on what happens. i think you have an excellent chance of losing or winning a little and a smaller chance of winning or losing big. if willing to risk the 6000, a 75$ starting bet size is big enough to give you prospects to "easily" get the 4000 if you catch a streak (assuming you get your share of 4 unit 300$ bets out and win a few). i think your likelihood of pulling it off is around 30% (this assumes that if, late in your effort it isnt happening, that you are willing to more aggressively risk 6000 loss and increase your bets in last-ditch, hail mary hope of catching a run)---good luck.

You should write a book!

[Roscoe]

But ain't dat against da law? I don't want my fingers getting smashed with a hammer like in "Casino..."

That movie's one of my favorites; if we equate Sharon Stone with variance, it all becomes accurate for blackjack.

[muffdiver]

Put $6,000 on a -150 ML favorite.

He'll still be short if he wins the bet. Do you count?

[RS]

He'll still be short if he wins the bet. Do you count?

I'm not following..? Unless it's taxed maybe?

[Three]

I'm not following..? Unless it's taxed maybe?

No the vig is built into the odds. He wins $4000 and gets his $10K.

[muffdiver]

Well, you can see how much sports betting I do. Didn't realize that.

[redbuck]

If you bet $6k on a 150 ML favorite, you win $3k, which leaves you with $9k. Fear not. just bet $1k against the Redskins and now you'll have your $10k...

[JohnnyUtah]

Cray and Hardin,

Since you guys seem to throw caution to the wind and bet based on "feel" and winning streaks instead of Advantage Play, do you at least count or "ballpark it" before doing so? I'm not going to blast you for your crazy scheme and thinking (sometimes you just can't teach an old dog new tricks), but I would hope you help out your chances by working a little bit of counting into it. Instead of randomly throwing down $1000 on a hand or jumping from $20 to $200 after a single hand, I suggest counting or, at the minimum, "ballparking" the count (ie, after W number of hands, we've seen about a 2:1 ratio of little cards to big cards, so we're at approximately a X count). While the rest of us would say "the count is +X, there are Y number of decks left, therefore I will bet Z" (or whatever... at least coming up with an amount based on the count) I hope you guys at least "ballpark" that the count is positive (or very positive) before throwing out your huge raise/max bet. I think that would slightly decrease your risk of ruin by avoiding throwing out max bets in the negative counts (which are terrible spots for you), although you're already living dangerously.

I will admit that when I'm out with friends at a casino, drinking for a bachelor party, etc and I'm there to have a good time with $200 and not specifically count to make money, at the minimum I will do something like this. When I go to count and make money, I'm usually bringing $1-2k, not drinking, and keeping an exact count the entire time. However, just this past weekend I was with friends at a casino with $200, socializing, having a good time etc. I didn't want to be a buzzkill and unfortunately I can't keep a good count when drunk, not paying attention, etc. I would try to keep a "ballpark" count at the minimum once I lost track of the exact count a deck or so in. I started with different starting bets... when the ballpark was positive, I would start out with a higher bet and, like you, increase my bet after a win (just by one chip, though). It's a mix of cover (using a bad betting strategy they know to not be AP play) and just being drunk and hating flat betting. If I knew the count was very positive and the shoe was almost finished, I would start out with a really high bet or "let it ride" from my last winning hand. I managed a $500 win, but, as others will be quick to point out, variance/luck and I was costing myself money by not betting correctly per the count.

At least I had a "reason" (albeit drunken) why I would vary my bets and not just on a whim. Normally, though, if I can't keep a count I would rather just walk away. I'm probably tired and that's costing me money. Hanging out with friends and playing with a small buy-in, I'm not worried about the money. I hope no one blasts me for using cra(Z)y "logic" but I'm just trying to slightly improve their game since they seem set on not counting--something's better than nothing! Maybe one day they'll learn, though...

[stopgambling]

What's the point! That card counter just keeps losing big bets after big bets ,and he's playing with an advantage?

[Three]

What's the point! That card counter just keeps losing big bets after big bets ,and he's playing with an advantage?

Sometimes win big bet after big bet. Sometimes not. I recently downsized my "max" bet because of this. My Theo went down but I am more consistently building my BR. I have an ideal deck composition were the old max bet, my super max bet comes out to win , win win but I grind out such a nice profit at the more common lesser advantages having the entire session depend on how those much rarer max bet opportunities went was rather difficult to deal with. I am hitting the win amount to be welcomed back without such a big spread quick enough that this way seems better for me. If max bet variance would have been kinder to me perhaps I would still be betting the same.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Tthree's post #34 was a distinct pleasure to read.

Very well-written and succinctly so.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My approach would have been to go to a casino offering 100 X Odds.

Betting $30 on the Don't Pass Line and Laying the odds to the Max.

In this case — $6,000 on the 4 or 10, $4,500 on the 5 or 9, or $3,600

on the 6 or 8 ~ in each case will win $6,030 for a big bankroll boost.

Interestingly, The House Advantage, expressed in dollars and cents is

merely 1.39% of $30 for a "vig" of about 41¢ The House Advantage over

the course of wagering on the "Dont's" laying 100 X Odds. is about 0.01%

The casino deserves that minuscule edge for booking the wager in good faith.

For the following, we are indebted to Michael Shackleford, "The Wizard of Odds":

Optimal strategy in craps is pretty simple. Bet the don't pass and/or don't come and back it up laying the maximum odds. That is known as "playing the dark side," because the vast majority of players bet the opposite way. If you don't want to be a contrarian, and enjoy going with the flow, then the pass and/or come bets, plus taking full odds, is almost as good.
The following table shows the combined house edge on the pass or come bet, backed up by taking full odds according to the maximum odds allowed. "Full double odds" is 2X odds on all points except the 6 and 8, in which case it is 2.5X. "3X-4X-5X" means the maximum odds are 3X on the 4 and 10, 4X on the 5 and 9, and 5X on the 6 and 8.

Combined House edge on Pass/Come & Taking Full Odds
Odds	House Edge per
Bet Made	Bet Resolved	Roll
1X	0.00848	0.00848	0.00251
2X	0.00606	0.00606	0.00180
Full double	0.00572	0.00572	0.00169
3X	0.00471	0.00471	0.00140
3X-4X-5X	0.00374	0.00374	0.00111
5X	0.00326	0.00326	0.00097
10X	0.00184	0.00184	0.00055
20X	0.00099	0.00099	0.00029
100X	0.00021	0.00021	0.00006

The next table shows the combined house edge on the don't pass or don't come, backed up by laying the full odds. The house edges in the don't table below are significantly less than the do table above. For example, with 3X-4X-5X odds the combined house edge on the pass is 0.374%, while on the don't pass is 0.273%. I think that makes the don't pass look deceptively significantly better. The main reason it is less is the odds multiple is relative to your bet taking odds, and the win when laying odds.
Although the player may bet more laying the odds, the variance is still the same. For example, if the point is a 4, and the table allows 3X odds, the variance is the same betting $30 with a 1/3 chance to win $60, or $60 with a 2/3 chance to win $30. So, don't bet the don't side because you may lay more on the odds. In my opinion, the only advantage to the don't side is the 0.05% lower house edge on the don't pass or don't come bet. If the pass side is more fun, go ahead and bet that way; I won't shake my finger if I catch you at the table.

Combined House edge on Don't Pass/Come & Taking Full Odds
Odds	House Edge per
Bet Made	Bet Resolved	Roll
1X	0.00682	0.00701	0.00202
2X	0.00455	0.00468	0.00135
Full double	0.00431	0.00443	0.00128
3X	0.00341	0.00351	0.00101
3X-4X-5X	0.00273	0.00281	0.00081
5X	0.00227	0.00234	0.00067
10X	0.00124	0.00128	0.00037
20X	0.00065	0.00067	0.00019
100X	0.00014	0.00014	0.00004

NOTE:

The Wizard's Las Vegas "Craps Survey" shows that 100 X Odds is almost non-existent.

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/craps-survey//

A 20 X table is found downtown at Main Street Station.

House Edge there ~ Front Line = 0.099% ….. for Back Line = 0.065%

Main Street Station

20x

0.099%

0.065%

In my experience, rural Mississippi, and many other remote venues, offer 100 X Odds.

The last 100 X table extant in Atlantic City died with the closing of the Wild Wild West about 2 years ago.