Need to turn 6K into 10K, what are my chances?

[Math Demon]

Hello Tthree. You're a well-respected member of the AP community, and you're providing a serious answer. Can I ask you a serious question?

Why suggest "laying the 6" with its 2.2% house edge (H/E)? Why not divide the 6k BR into 3 equal-size bets, then bet the "banker" at baccarat with 1.06% H/E or the "don't pass" with the 1.36% H/E? Or the "Hail Mary" play if Crazy Cray really knows BS. Just very curious.

What are the chances of success with your strategy?

I just reiterated that there are other bets with smaller house edges. I don't like baccarat because it's mindless. But I'll devise a baccarat strategy, and compute his statistical chances.

[Three]

Well I tried to get a strategy that would quickly hit the target with a high degree of success. If the number of trials is very short, which is what we are talking about here, EV isn't going to be much of a factor. in long term plays EV is a definite factor.

[redbuck]

Cray cray it's been over 12 hours since your initial post, how did it work out???

[Roscoe]

I'm so delighted to finally read a post where someone mentioned what happened in "Casino," when they caught those 2 fellows: I don't know the term for what they were doing. But the one got off alright, but the other got the hammer, on the hand. Sounds terrible. Really bad. It took Cray Cray to bring it up; I've always wanted to but didn't want to be inane; was that a punishment from the old days? Currently in Casinos in foreign countries? And loved that movie: telling Sharon Stone, "Can I trust you?" Oh man.

[Swimmer]

If you attach a copper wire to both ends of a 9v battery and put it in a bottle of rubbing alcohol then wait for the copper wire to turn black the alcohol can then be ingested, doesn't get cheaper than that........ I'd put 4k on red






just my .02

[Math Demon]

Go to the craps table. Lay the 6 for $5052 you will need to pay a vig of 210 so your total bet is $5262. You will lose 45.45% of the time and be left with $738 but if you win you will have exactly $10,000 (54.5454% of the time). If you lose put the rest on the hard 6. If you win you have $7380. If you lose you are broke. These 2 bet resolutions that made you go broke happen 41.32% of the time. The odds you have $7380 is 4.545454%. If this is the case, lay the 6 for $4500, the vig will $187 for a total bet of $4687 while at the same time bet $750 on the hard 6. If a 7 rolls or a hard 6 rolls you now have a total of $10,193, if a soft 6 rolls you have $1,943 (You will be here 1.653% of the time). Then bet $900 on the hard 8. If you win you have a total of $10,043. If you lose you have $1043 left, bet $1000 on the hard 6. If you win you have $10,043. If you lose both these bets (you will get to this point 1.366% of the time) you have $43 left. Treat yourself to something nice while bemoaning your failure.

You will succeed 57.314% of the time and most likely have plenty of time left.

Well I tried to get a strategy that would quickly hit the target with a high degree of success. If the number of trials is very short, which is what we are talking about here, EV isn't going to be much of a factor. in long term plays EV is a definite factor.

I understand you now. How's this?


Lay $6000 on the "4". 67% chance of success. On the 33% chance that you lose, you're bankrupt. Go plan something else.*

If you win, you get $8,850, still needing $1,150.

Lay $2420 again on the "4". Again, 67% chance of success. If you lose, you still have the original $6,000 plus $430.

If you win, you get $1,150, achieving your target of $10,000.

If you lose this (2nd) time, repeat the process until you either get $10,000 or lose it all.



* I heard ski masks sells for a little as $5.

[Three]

Lay $6000 on the "4". 67% chance of success. On the 33% chance that you lose, you're bankrupt. Go plan something else.*

If you win, you get $8,850, still needing $1,150.

Unless they take vig only on a win, which many but not most casinos do, on the 4 and 10 you can't make this bet because you don't have the vig. I worked with the most casinos don't allow this assumption but last time I was in Vegas it seemed to be a pretty common practice on the 4 and 10 to only collect vig on a win. If the vig must be paid prior to the bet you must alter your strategy.

So assuming the vig is paid after you win, your system wins 4/9 and busts 1/3 on the first attempt. It is early in the morning for recursive logic so I hope I get this right.

Success rate:
4/9 success and 1/3 failure total on each cycle is success gives success 4/9 and failure 3/9 total in each cycle of the recursion so 7 total success/failure decisions per cycle, 4 wins and 3 losses combined per cycle. You therefore are successful 4/7 of the time. Success rate 57.14857%.

Success rate is 57.14857% of the time. My success rate was ever so slightly higher (57.314%). The no vig on a loss lay 4 bet has a much lower disadvantage (better odds for the player) than laying the 6 with vig paid win or lose but multiple wins for success costs the success rate.

[Math Demon]

Unless they take vig only on a win, which many but not most casinos do, on the 4 and 10 you can't make this bet because you don't have the vig. I worked with the most casinos don't allow this assumption but last time I was in Vegas it seemed to be a pretty common practice on the 4 and 10 to only collect vig on a win. If the vig must be paid prior to the bet you must alter your strategy.

So assuming the vig is paid after you win, your system wins 4/9 and busts 1/3 on the first attempt. It is early in the morning for recursive logic so I hope I get this right.

Success rate:
4/9 success and 1/3 failure total on each cycle is success gives success 4/9 and failure 3/9 total in each cycle of the recursion so 7 total success/failure decisions per cycle, 4 wins and 3 losses combined per cycle. You therefore are successful 4/7 of the time. Success rate 57.14857%.

Success rate is 57.14857% of the time. My success rate was ever so slightly higher (57.314%). The no vig on a loss lay 4 bet has a much lower disadvantage (better odds for the player) than laying the 6 with vig paid win or lose but multiple wins for success costs the success rate.

Yep! I knew that. Didn't want the truth to ruin good math.

Overall success rate = sum_(k=2)^25 (2/3)^k (1/3)^(k-2) = 57.14285714285713083832867711303268074721617248221 14704715909734856148880624532008700841578400078563 02303048782349230950 %

[Cray Cray]

Update: I did it. I actually turned the 6K into 10,339. It took a lot longer than 36 hours though and no less than 3 times did I have the last of my BR on a single hand! Lots of ups and downs along the way. I was up 3k on 2-3 different occasions and each time I suffered HUGE losses before getting to the +4K.

My secret is simple: I bet the minimum after losing a hand and then bet anywhere from 100-1000 (usually 200-300) once I win a hand. Momentum is an amazing thing. I can't tell you just how many 8-10 winning and losing streaks I had this weekend. Of course each hand has its own independent odds but for whatever reason this strategy works. With that said, I did get extremely lucky on a lot of huge hail merry bets. Also lost a lot of them too though.

This weekend was a lot of fun and I got to meet some awesome people including a really foxy 20 year old BJ dealer that shares a lot of the same interests me. Unfortunately she has a boyfriend, another BJ dealer. Oh well. It sure was fun though. On Sunday I actually played in one of the sections from opening time (noon) to closing time (3-4am) with no food and only bathroom breaks. BJ can be a really wild game with huge swings but if you ride the momentum, I really think you can beat the house consistently. I know I certainly did.

[Cray Cray]

I played Friday from around 8-9 AM until about Saturday around 4am. Drove home (109 miles) to take care of my dog and get some sleep. Woke up Saturday and took the pooch to the dog park. Ran some errands in town and then headed back to the casino arriving at 4-5 PM. Played more and then went with my friend to see the Mayweather fight in the convention center. Free food, drinks, etc. Pretty cool experience. Then played until about 3am and went to sleep at the hotel (comp'd room). Woke up Sunday around 11am and played until 4am. Drove home again and I'm now in bed. Btw, I accumulated 650-700 points from
Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I have no idea what to use them for though. Might go on a little shopping spree this week there but will make sure to leave all my cash and credit cards at home.

[Norm]

Seriously, you need to get help.

[Cray Cray]

Why Norm? I had a fun time with my buddy. I made money. I walked when I hit my goal. So why do I need help?

[hitthat16]

As long as you don't rely on gambling as a sound source of income then you are ok. It's just not healthy to gamble to try and scramble up needed cash.