Need to turn 6K into 10K, what are my chances?

[Math Demon]

Norm,

Did I join the wrong Forum? Is this a Blackjack Forum where APs assists each other?

Or is this just another forum where all kinds of nonsense are discussed and tolerated?


I heard there is another Forum which tolerates all kinds of nonsense. Are we slowly becoming like that one?


Thanks,
Math Demon

[Pacman]

Norm,

Did I join the wrong Forum? Is this a Blackjack Forum where APs assists each other?

Or is this just another forum where all kinds of nonsense are discussed and tolerated?


I heard there is another Forum which tolerates all kinds of nonsense. Are we slowly becoming like that one?


Thanks,
Math Demon

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

[Math Demon]

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

Pacman,

If you can read between the lines, I was asking Norm whether a "Disadvantage Forum" even belong to "Blackjack: The Forum". I think it marginalizes this whole Forum. Maybe Norm can just rename us as "Anything Goes: The Forum"

[hardin county boy]

He may be Right though Math Demon. This IS the section for disadvanteous play and advice. We are not in the AP section of the forum. It could be considered insulting to speak of science, in the church of nonsense... I believe the term is blasphemy?

~Pac

pac, agree your post #26 was kindly, concise and stemmed from an interest in helping out, with some good humor sprinkled in. also agree when those of us at a stage of development that don't want to be confused by good science have it thrust upon us, it DOES interrupt the peace in the church--it IS blasphemy.

math demon asks norm a question that i have no power over--perfectly good question. i would observe that giving the many of us who come on with disadvantage yap a narrow, back-of-the-bus FORUM has the value of slowly having helpful things sink in to us and broadening the community but those may not be goals of the forum? math, if it is to be as you describe then renaming the thing the advantage player forum would keep us disadvantage guys out.

you dont have to worry that you are supporting nonsense--the heat is overwhelming--so much so you guys sometimes dont even answer questions like cray is asking that does have a math answer he probably can't figure out (nor can I)---just blasting the guy for being a degenerate with a dumb idea is really NOSEY--it is, in truth, none-your-damn-business if he wants to try for a 66% return in 12 hours----except for armed robbery, if thats what he wants, where WOULD he go but a casino?

[Mr BJ75]

pac, agree your post #26 was kindly, concise and stemmed from an interest in helping out, with some good humor sprinkled in. also agree when those of us at a stage of development that don't want to be confused by good science have it thrust upon us, it DOES interrupt the peace in the church--it IS blasphemy.

math demon asks norm a question that i have no power over--perfectly good question. i would observe that giving the many of us who come on with disadvantage yap a narrow, back-of-the-bus FORUM has the value of slowly having helpful things sink in to us and broadening the community but those may not be goals of the forum? math, if it is to be as you describe then renaming the thing the advantage player forum would keep us disadvantage guys out.

you dont have to worry that you are supporting nonsense--the heat is overwhelming--so much so you guys sometimes dont even answer questions like cray is asking that does have a math answer he probably can't figure out (nor can I)---just blasting the guy for being a degenerate with a dumb idea is really NOSEY--it is, in truth, none-your-damn-business if he wants to try for a 66% return in 12 hours----except for armed robbery, if thats what he wants, where WOULD he go but a casino?

Hardin County,

I read everything, and I still yet to figure out if I agree with you or if I don't or if I like you, or I don't. It seems like you compliment while at the same time putting one down. You write so much that often it goes two opposing directions.

[Math Demon]

Hey dudes,

Due to unforeseen financial difficulties, I now have my back against the wall and need to turn 6K into 10K in under 12 hours. The casino I'll be playing at is Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. Their rules are 6 decks, DAS, and S17. I follow basic BJ strategy with one exception: I do not split 8's against a ten, instead I surrender. I'm a strong believer in betting the table minimum when in a losing streak and betting big when you seem to be hot. It's worked for me in the past. I've never tried counting cards.

With all this in mind, what do you think my chances are of turning 6K into 10K (making $4,000 net)? Any advice or words of wisdom is greatly appreciated.

Thanks Norm but my phone service has already been turned off for non-payment.

cray cray, hard to get a simple answer if you dont attend the church of counters--no answer, just efforts to convert. i am not a math wizard but 3 hours play at 80 hands/hour has a 2/3 chance of varying 18 units or more. 6 hours--25 units. 9hours--31 and 12 hours--36. your "unit" will be whatever your "average bet size" is and that is hard to say since you will vary it depending on what happens. i think you have an excellent chance of losing or winning a little and a smaller chance of winning or losing big. if willing to risk the 6000, a 75$ starting bet size is big enough to give you prospects to "easily" get the 4000 if you catch a streak (assuming you get your share of 4 unit 300$ bets out and win a few). i think your likelihood of pulling it off is around 30% (this assumes that if, late in your effort it isnt happening, that you are willing to more aggressively risk 6000 loss and increase your bets in last-ditch, hail mary hope of catching a run)---good luck.

cray, norm is giving pretty good advice, though maybe a tad exaggerated. so far none of us have suggested what i think is BEST likelihood of casino way to make 66% on your banroll in less than 12 hours: put 4080$ on BANK in baccarat with slightly> 50% chance you will win and they will collect 80$, 5%, commission.

should this lose, bet the remainder same way. if loses you are done. if wins, bet the 3774 and if THAT wins bet 2772 and if that wins you got your 4000. odds of that are only about one in eight but, not bad, given that makes your overall prospects greater than 50%. i will leave it to those who DO have an idea what they are talking about to tell you their confidence level of counting with that bankroll and goal for 12 hours but please ignore anyone who suggests it is greater than 50%.

also, i will feel much better about this if you dont randomly place the BANKER bet but rather, place it ONLY after a 4 of clubs OR 2 of hearts appears. also, if you lose the first bet but win the second, i suggest you close that session and go eat and then come back for a new session------none of this changes your prospects, but with 12 hours, i will just FEEL much better about it.

Hardin,

Cray Cray was asking about his chances of succeeding in his thoughts of financial suicide. Most people either tried to talk him out of it or ignored him.

You, on the other hand, seriously gave him detailed instructions on how to probably put himself in a bigger mess.

I don't know a lot of places that consider that tolerable behavior.
__

If he follows your method and bust, he's in a worse situation than before. If he was desperate before, what happens to him now?

If he follows your method and wins 4k, is he going to stop? Or will he continue until he goes bankrupt. He has already demonstrated bad money management. Will he learn that in the next few days?


You don't teach desperate people methods to injure themselves.

- MD

[Mr BJ75]

Hardin,

Cray Cray was asking about his chances of succeeding in his thoughts of financial suicide. Most people either tried to talk him out of it or ignored him.

You, on the other hand, seriously gave him detailed instructions on how to probably put himself in a bigger mess.

I don't know a lot of places that consider that tolerable behavior.
__

If he follows your method and bust, he's in a worse situation than before. If he was desperate before, what happens to him now?

If he follows your method and wins 4k, is he going to stop? Or will he continue until he goes bankrupt. He has already demonstrated bad money management. Will he learn that in the next few days?


You don't teach desperate people methods to injure themselves.

- MD

Well said MD. Although I'm usually the desperate guy and often wish someone would just help me, I agree with what you said.

[Three]

Go to the craps table. Lay the 6 for $5052 you will need to pay a vig of 210 so your total bet is $5262. You will lose 45.45% of the time and be left with $738 but if you win you will have exactly $10,000 (54.5454% of the time). If you lose put the rest on the hard 6. If you win you have $7380. If you lose you are broke. These 2 bet resolutions that made you go broke happen 41.32% of the time. The odds you have $7380 is 4.545454%. If this is the case, lay the 6 for $4500, the vig will $187 for a total bet of $4687 while at the same time bet $750 on the hard 6. If a 7 rolls or a hard 6 rolls you now have a total of $10,193, if a soft 6 rolls you have $1,943 (You will be here 1.653% of the time). Then bet $900 on the hard 8. If you win you have a total of $10,043. If you lose you have $1043 left, bet $1000 on the hard 6. If you win you have $10,043. If you lose both these bets (you will get to this point 1.366% of the time) you have $43 left. Treat yourself to something nice while bemoaning your failure.

You will succeed 57.314% of the time and most likely have plenty of time left.

[hardin county boy]

Hardin,
Cray Cray was asking about his chances of succeeding in his thoughts of financial suicide.

M D, i made the assumption he is a grown man, is solvent to the tune of at least 6000$ and, knowing his own business like none of us could, he outlined his needs AND ASKED GUYS HE THINKS COULD ANSWER HIS MATH QUESTION BETTER THAN HE COULD, a perfectly straightforward question.

my first choice would have been that talented math guys in this forum answer his question. not seeing that, i offered the best i could. had i asked my wife first, she might have said things similar to what you have said but i respect the unknown cray cray too much to figure he should be burdened with my unsolicited advice---gotta be honest, THAT kinda presumption really DOES seem to be straying a LONG way from "blackjack". some may feel the word or game of blackjack is the exclusive property of counters but really, it is not. without disadvantage players, i GUARANTEE the concern i have heard that beatable games may disappear will come to fruition---may as well embrace those of us who prefer to think that life is as we WISH it is, rather than how it REALLY is---we just trying to transfer our money into YOUR pocket--what's not to like?

[hardin county boy]

You will succeed 57.314% of the time and most likely have plenty of time left.

BRAVO Tthree!!!--cray cray asked a question and you gave him a GREAT answer. thanks for a first-rate post.

[Math Demon]

Hey dudes,

Due to unforeseen financial difficulties, I now have my back against the wall and need to turn 6K into 10K in under 12 hours.

... but my phone service has already been turned off for non-payment.

M D, i made the assumption he is a grown man...

Hardin, what ever gave you that idea?

[Math Demon]

Go to the craps table. Lay the 6 for $5052 you will need to pay a vig of 210 so your total bet is $5262. You will lose 45.45% of the time and be left with $738 but if you win you will have exactly $10,000 (54.5454% of the time). If you lose put the rest on the hard 6. If you win you have $7380. If you lose you are broke. These 2 bet resolutions that made you go broke happen 41.32% of the time. The odds you have $7380 is 4.545454%. If this is the case, lay the 6 for $4500, the vig will $187 for a total bet of $4687 while at the same time bet $750 on the hard 6. If a 7 rolls or a hard 6 rolls you now have a total of $10,193, if a soft 6 rolls you have $1,943 (You will be here 1.653% of the time). Then bet $900 on the hard 8. If you win you have a total of $10,043. If you lose you have $1043 left, bet $1000 on the hard 6. If you win you have $10,043. If you lose both these bets (you will get to this point 1.366% of the time) you have $43 left. Treat yourself to something nice while bemoaning your failure.

You will succeed 57.314% of the time and most likely have plenty of time left.

Hello Tthree. You're a well-respected member of the AP community, and you're providing a serious answer. Can I ask you a serious question?

Why suggest "laying the 6" with its 2.2% house edge (H/E)? Why not divide the 6k BR into 3 equal-size bets, then bet the "banker" at baccarat with 1.06% H/E or the "don't pass" with the 1.36% H/E? Or the "Hail Mary" play if Crazy Cray really knows BS. Just very curious.


Thanks,
Math Demon

[Three]

Why suggest "laying the 6" with its 2.2% house edge (H/E)? Why not divide the 6k BR into 3 equal-size bets, then bet the "banker" at baccarat with 1.06% H/E or the "don't pass" with the 1.36% H/E? Or the "Hail Mary" play if Crazy Cray really knows BS. Just very curious.

What are the chances of success with your strategy?